Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Southern Hydropower JSC stock VND 36,977, price VND 31,200, upside +18.5%, quality 84 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 12,323 VND – 33,650 VND · fair‑value band 29,471 VND – 45,416 VND · the 31,200 VND price screens below the 36,977 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Southern Hydropower Joint Stock Company engages in the construction, production, installation, operation, transmission, and distribution of hydropower plants in Vietnam.
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It owns and operates hydropower plants, including Da M'bri plant with installed capacity of 75 MW, Da Dang 2 plant with installed capacity of 34 MW, and Da Siat plant with installed capacity of 13.5 MW. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Bao Loc, Vietnam.
Stock analysis
Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP) currently trades at 31,200 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 36,977 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 16% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 41,139 VND per share, and 12 of the 23 models we run sit above the 31,200 VND price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 18,289 VND, and 11 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 29,471 VND (bear) to 45,416 VND (bull), the price of 31,200 VND sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 84/100 (high quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Southern Hydropower JSC reported revenue of 648B VND in FY2025 versus 658B VND in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was 298B VND in FY2025, compounding +3.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.2T VND (≈ $123M) Micro · P/E ratio 11.9 · P/S ratio 4.95 · EPS (TTM) 2,620 VND · Dividend yield 6.4% · Net margin 46.3% · Return on equity 26.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 21.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 91 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at 19%, SHP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear29,471 VNDFair Value 36,977 VNDBull45,416 VND
Price 31,200 VND · Upside +18.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (531.31 VND per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.1%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+13.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.4%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 53%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−0.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Vietnam: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.7% a year for the price.
Compare Southern Hydropower JSC with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Diversified · 49 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score84 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+18.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)26.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets20.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)46.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)33.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−28.8% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)6.4% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Is Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 36,977 VND versus a price of 31,200 VND, about +19% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SHP?
Our model-based fair value for Southern Hydropower JSC is 36,977 VND (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 31,200 VND.
What is the quality score of SHP?
Southern Hydropower JSC has a Quality Score of 84/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 36,977 VND (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario 29,471 VND, optimistic scenario 45,416 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Southern Hydropower JSC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 36,977 VND, about +19% upside versus a price of 31,200 VND (undervalued). Cautious scenario 29,471 VND, optimistic scenario 45,416 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
Southern Hydropower JSC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 639B VND (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
Does Southern Hydropower JSC pay a dividend?
Southern Hydropower JSC currently shows a dividend yield of 6.41% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 9, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Southern Hydropower JSC pays a dividend of 2,000 VND per share a year, a dividend yield of 6.4%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 15, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2014. The payout ratio is 76.3% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.11 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Southern Hydropower JSC would have to grow free cash flow by -0.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.6 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SHP use?
Our models discount Southern Hydropower JSC at 14.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.00, country premium for Vietnam. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Southern Hydropower JSC that is -0.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (14.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Southern Hydropower JSC grew +8.6 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -0.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Southern Hydropower JSC (-0.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.54 %: that much free cash flow Southern Hydropower JSC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Southern Hydropower JSC it is 36,977 VND per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of 31,200 VND. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Southern Hydropower JSC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, SHP trades below its calculated fair value: price 31,200 VND, fair value 36,977 VND, a gap of about +19% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SHP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (31,200 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (36,977 VND). For Southern Hydropower JSC the two are 5,777 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Southern Hydropower JSC worth?
The market values Southern Hydropower JSC at about 3.2T VND (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is 31,200 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 36,977 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SHP?
Our models span a range for Southern Hydropower JSC: cautious scenario 29,471 VND, base 36,977 VND, optimistic 45,416 VND per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price 31,200 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SHP?
Southern Hydropower JSC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.9 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 36,977 VND is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 4.9, EV/EBITDA 6.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Southern Hydropower JSC (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 26.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 84/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SHP from its 52-week high?
Southern Hydropower JSC trades at 31,200 VND, about 7% below its 52-week high of 33,650 VND and 4% above the low of 30,000 VND (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 36,977 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Southern Hydropower JSC?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Iberdrola, S.A, Enel SpA, Engie SA, E.ON SE, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Southern Hydropower JSC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price 31,200 VND, calculated fair value 36,977 VND (+19%), Quality Score 84/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SHP calculated?
We run Southern Hydropower JSC through 23 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 36,977 VND builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Southern Hydropower JSC currently trades 16% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 31,200 VND. Our model-based fair value is 36,977 VND, about +19% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Southern Hydropower JSC right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Southern Hydropower JSC
How large is the market capitalisation of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
The market capitalisation of Southern Hydropower JSC is 3.2T VND (≈ $123M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Southern Hydropower JSC is 4.95 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
Earnings per share at Southern Hydropower JSC are 2,620 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
The dividend yield of Southern Hydropower JSC is 6.4% (payout 76.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
The net margin of Southern Hydropower JSC is 46.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Southern Hydropower JSC is 26.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Southern Hydropower JSC is 21.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
The operating margin of Southern Hydropower JSC is 33.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
Revenue at Southern Hydropower JSC is growing −28.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
Earnings per share at Southern Hydropower JSC are growing −47.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP) carry?
The net debt of Southern Hydropower JSC is 60.1B VND (fiscal year 2023, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 9, 2026