Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Southern Hydropower JSC VND 34,223, price VND 31,500, upside +8.6%, quality 86 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 11,472 VND – 33,650 VND · fair‑value band 27,566 VND – 41,679 VND · the 31,500 VND price screens below the 34,223 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Southern Hydropower Joint Stock Company engages in the construction, production, installation, operation, transmission, and distribution of hydropower plants in Vietnam.
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Southern Hydropower Joint Stock Company engages in the construction, production, installation, operation, transmission, and distribution of hydropower plants in Vietnam. It owns and operates hydropower plants, including Da M'bri plant with installed capacity of 75 MW, Da Dang 2 plant with installed capacity of 34 MW, and Da Siat plant with installed capacity of 13.5 MW. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Bao Loc, Vietnam.
Stock analysis
Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP) currently trades at 31,500 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 34,223 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 8.0% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of 42,396 VND per share, and 13 of the 23 models we run sit above the 31,500 VND price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 9,063 VND, and 10 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 27,566 VND (bear) to 41,679 VND (bull), the price of 31,500 VND sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 86/100 (high quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Southern Hydropower JSC reported revenue of 648B VND in FY2025 versus 658B VND in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was 298B VND in FY2025, compounding +3.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 3.2T VND · P/E ratio 10.2 · P/S ratio 4.71 · EPS (TTM) 3,077 VND · Dividend yield 7.7% · Net margin 46.1% · Return on equity 25.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 21.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at 9%, SHP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 27,566 VNDFair Value 34,223 VNDBull 41,679 VND
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (2,260 VND per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.1%
’19
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+14.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 53%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Vietnam: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.4% a year for the price.
Compare Southern Hydropower JSC with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Diversified · 51 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score86 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)26% · Top 25%
Return on assets18% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)48% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)42% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth47% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)7.7% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
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Is Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 34,223 VND versus a price of 31,500 VND, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SHP?
Our model-based fair value for Southern Hydropower JSC is 34,223 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 31,500 VND.
What is the quality score of SHP?
Southern Hydropower JSC has a Quality Score of 86/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 34,223 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario 27,566 VND, optimistic scenario 41,679 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Southern Hydropower JSC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 34,223 VND, about +9% upside versus a price of 31,500 VND (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 27,566 VND, optimistic scenario 41,679 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
Southern Hydropower JSC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 679B VND (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Southern Hydropower JSC pay a dividend?
Southern Hydropower JSC currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.70% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Southern Hydropower JSC would have to grow free cash flow by +1.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 16.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SHP use?
Our models discount Southern Hydropower JSC at 16.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Vietnam. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Southern Hydropower JSC that is +1.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (16.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Southern Hydropower JSC grew +8.6 % a year. The price currently implies +1.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Southern Hydropower JSC (+1.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.41 %: that much free cash flow Southern Hydropower JSC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (16.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Southern Hydropower JSC it is 34,223 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 31,500 VND. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Southern Hydropower JSC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SHP trades below its calculated fair value: price 31,500 VND, fair value 34,223 VND, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SHP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (31,500 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (34,223 VND). For Southern Hydropower JSC the two are 2,723 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Southern Hydropower JSC worth?
The market values Southern Hydropower JSC at about 3.2T VND (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 31,500 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 34,223 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SHP?
Our models span a range for Southern Hydropower JSC: cautious scenario 27,566 VND, base 34,223 VND, optimistic 41,679 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 31,500 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SHP?
Southern Hydropower JSC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 34,223 VND is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 4.7, EV/EBITDA 6.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Southern Hydropower JSC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 25.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 86/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SHP from its 52-week high?
Southern Hydropower JSC trades at 31,500 VND, about 6% below its 52-week high of 33,650 VND and 5% above the low of 30,000 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 34,223 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Southern Hydropower JSC?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Iberdrola, S.A, Enel SpA, Engie SA, Sempra, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Southern Hydropower JSC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 31,500 VND, calculated fair value 34,223 VND (+9%), Quality Score 86/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SHP calculated?
We run Southern Hydropower JSC through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 34,223 VND, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Southern Hydropower JSC currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 31,500 VND. Our model-based fair value is 34,223 VND, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Southern Hydropower JSC right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Southern Hydropower JSC
How large is the market capitalisation of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
The market capitalisation of Southern Hydropower JSC is 3.2T VND. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Southern Hydropower JSC is 4.71 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
Earnings per share at Southern Hydropower JSC are 3,077 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
The dividend yield of Southern Hydropower JSC is 7.7% (payout 78.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
The net margin of Southern Hydropower JSC is 46.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Southern Hydropower JSC is 25.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Southern Hydropower JSC is 21.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
The operating margin of Southern Hydropower JSC is 42.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
Revenue at Southern Hydropower JSC is growing +46.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP)?
Earnings per share at Southern Hydropower JSC are growing +196% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Southern Hydropower JSC (SHP) carry?
The net debt of Southern Hydropower JSC is 60.1B VND (fiscal year 2023, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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