Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Showa Denko K.K $14.15, price $101, upside -86.0%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.30 – $113.93 · fair‑value band $8.66 – $14.15 · the $100.70 price screens above the $14.15 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Resonac Holdings Corporation operates as a chemical company in Japan and internationally. It operates through the Semiconductor and Electronic Materials, Mobility, Innovation Enabling Materials, Chemicals, and Crasus Chemical segments.
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Resonac Holdings Corporation operates as a chemical company in Japan and internationally. It operates through the Semiconductor and Electronic Materials, Mobility, Innovation Enabling Materials, Chemicals, and Crasus Chemical segments. The company offers gases and solvents, abatement equipment systems and surface treatments, CMP slurries, and anti-charging materials; semiconductor-related materials, display and sensor-related materials, and films; base and photosensitive materials for PWBs; hard disks, SiCs, and optical semiconductors for use as electronic device components; and molded plastics/sheet-formed, powder metal, and aluminum products for automotives. It provides lithium-ion batteries and mechanical carbon; ceramics, resins, cosmetic ingredients, monomers, adhesives, tapes, and chromatography products; industrial gases, and elastomers. In addition, the company offers polyimides; HD media; friction materials; plastic molded; aluminum gravity casting products; packaging/containers; electrical insulating epoxy resin molded products; zipper bags and tapes; titanium oxide and alumina; and elastic polishing grindstone. Further, it provides petrochemical and organic chemicals; polypropylene and polyethylene; liquefied carbon dioxide, dry ice, and gas-related equipment; liquefied oxygen, nitrogen, and argon; molecular sieve; graphite electrodes; plasters, fireproofing pipes, and wall sidings; cement and moisture removal sheets; industrial materials; and FRP, coated sand, and separating mediums. Additionally, the company engages in leasing personnel computers and other business equipment; outsourcing of salary, welfare, and finance-related business; and synthesis, analysis, and SDS preparation services. The company was formerly known as Showa Denko K.K. and changed its name to Resonac Holdings Corporation in January 2023. The company was incorporated in 1939 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF) currently trades at $100.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.15, 86.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $18.34 per share, and 0 of the 21 models we run sit above the $100.70 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $1.48, and 21 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $8.66 (bear) to $14.15 (bull), the price of $100.70 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Showa Denko K.K reported revenue of ¥1.3T in FY2025 versus ¥1.4T in FY2021, a compound −1.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥29.1B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $18.2B · P/E ratio 101.7 · P/S ratio 2.19 · EPS (TTM) $0.9900 · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity 5.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7% · Operating margin 7.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 196% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −86%, SHWDF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.1200 to $35.36). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $8.66Fair Value $14.15Bull $14.15
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.6% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−14.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−14.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−20.3% vs 21.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → 4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+48.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +45.9% a year for the price and −3.5% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 339 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−84.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.5% · Below median
Return on assets1.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)2.7% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)7.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4.1% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)68.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.11× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)101.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B4.11× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.16× · Pricier than median
P/FCF121.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA23.4× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 3
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 61
PAST (return on equity)22· sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)44· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 32
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.15 versus a price of $100.70, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SHWDF?
Our model-based fair value for Showa Denko K.K is $14.15 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $100.70.
What is the quality score of SHWDF?
Showa Denko K.K has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.15 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.66, optimistic scenario $14.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Showa Denko K.K stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.15, about −86% upside versus a price of $100.70 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $8.66, optimistic scenario $14.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF)?
Showa Denko K.K reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥1.3T (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Showa Denko K.K would have to grow free cash flow by +48.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.7 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SHWDF use?
Our models discount Showa Denko K.K at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.10, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Showa Denko K.K that is +48.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Showa Denko K.K grew +6.7 % a year. The price currently implies +48.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Showa Denko K.K (+48.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.82 %: that much free cash flow Showa Denko K.K produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Showa Denko K.K it is $14.15 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $100.70. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Showa Denko K.K stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, SHWDF trades above its calculated fair value: price $100.70, fair value $14.15, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SHWDF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($100.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.15). For Showa Denko K.K the two are $86.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Showa Denko K.K worth?
The market values Showa Denko K.K at about $18.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $100.70; our models calculate a fair value of $14.15 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SHWDF?
Our models span a range for Showa Denko K.K: cautious scenario $8.66, base $14.15, optimistic $14.15 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $100.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SHWDF?
Showa Denko K.K trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 101.7 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.15 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.1, P/S 2.2, EV/EBITDA 23.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Showa Denko K.K (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 5.5%, debt of 1.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SHWDF from its 52-week high?
Showa Denko K.K trades at $100.70, about 12% below its 52-week high of $113.93 and 196% above the low of $34.00 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.15 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Showa Denko K.K?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, Hengli Petrochemical Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Showa Denko K.K stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $100.70, calculated fair value $14.15 (−86%), Quality Score 46/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SHWDF calculated?
We run Showa Denko K.K through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.15, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Showa Denko K.K itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $100.70. Our model-based fair value is $14.15, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Showa Denko K.K right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($14.15). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF) come from?
Earnings per share at Showa Denko K.K grew +23.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.7 %, EBIT margin +2.8 %, tax rate +7.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +7.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Showa Denko K.K
How large is the market capitalisation of Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF)?
The market capitalisation of Showa Denko K.K is $18.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Showa Denko K.K is 2.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF)?
Earnings per share at Showa Denko K.K are $0.9900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 101.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF)?
The net margin of Showa Denko K.K is 2.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Showa Denko K.K is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Showa Denko K.K is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF)?
The operating margin of Showa Denko K.K is 7.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF)?
Revenue at Showa Denko K.K is growing −4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF)?
Earnings per share at Showa Denko K.K are growing +57.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Showa Denko K.K (SHWDF) carry?
The net debt of Showa Denko K.K is ¥727B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 30.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Oct 3, 2026