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SIG Group (SIGCY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of SIG Group $10.70, price $16.12, upside -33.6%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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SG
Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Some data
Sep 24, 2026
SIG Group
SIGCY · USWeak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.
!Fair value $10.70 · Overvalued (−33.6%)
!Quality 38/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +11.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -2.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 24/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
48‑month range $9.83 – $27.83 · fair‑value band $6.11 – $16.59 · the $16.12 price screens above the $10.70 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
SIG Group AG provides aseptic carton packaging systems and solutions for beverage and food products primarily in Europe, India, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and the Americas.
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SIG Group AG provides aseptic carton packaging systems and solutions for beverage and food products primarily in Europe, India, the Middle East, Africa, the Asia Pacific, and the Americas. The company provides carton, bag-in-box, and spouted pouch packaging solutions; filling lines and other related equipment, packaging material, and after-sales services; carton sleeves, closures, and barrier film and fitments; and commodity hedging products. It operates in China, the United States, Germany, India, Brazil, the Netherlands, Australia, Austria, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Korea, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Spain, and the United Arab Emirates. The company was formerly known as SIG Combibloc Group AG and changed its name to SIG Group AG in April 2022. SIG Group AG was founded in 1853 and is headquartered in Neuhausen am Rheinfall, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
SIG Group (SIGCY) currently trades at $16.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.70, 33.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $11.57 per share, and 2 of the 15 models we run sit above the $16.12 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.24, and 13 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $6.11 (bear) to $16.59 (bull), the price of $16.12 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
SIG Group reported revenue of €3.1B in FY2025 versus €2.1B in FY2021, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was −€83.6M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $6.2B · P/S ratio 1.82 · EPS (TTM) $−0.2700 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin −2.7% · Return on equity −3.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7% · Operating margin 10.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −34%, SIGCY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $6.11
Fair Value $10.70
Bull $16.59
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$5.71
$11.28
$19.42
77
Growth DCF
$5.86
$10.78
$17.51
76
EPV
$4.67
$6.20
$7.52
74
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$5.71
$11.28
$19.42
77
5Y Revenue Exit
$4.71
$10.23
$17.22
70
5Y EBITDA Exit
$8.15
$16.66
$26.54
73
10Y Revenue Exit
$4.70
$9.74
$16.42
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
$7.12
$14.10
$23.36
66
Earnings-Based
EPV
$4.67
$6.20
$7.52
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$5.04
$10.04
$15.20
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$5.04
$8.14
$10.60
66
Multiples
EV/EBIT
$7.42
$11.57
$15.72
65
EV/EBITDA
$11.38
$16.86
$22.33
66
EV/Revenue
$4.61
$8.74
$12.88
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$3.91
$5.24
$7.83
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$5.86
$10.78
$17.51
76
Rev-Margin DCF
$4.71
$10.27
$16.66
70
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder
$4.67
$6.20
$7.52
72
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
38/100
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 67
Profitability
14
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
39
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
34
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
61
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
62
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
82
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
49
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
50/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
9.5% (2020) → 12.9% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +14.7% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+5.1%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+3.5%
Projected 2028 (sales)+3.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+3.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.9%
SIGCY screens overvalued: fair value 34% below the price. Compare with Smurfit Westrock Plc, →
Compare SIG Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 262 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Smurfit Westrock Plc, SW | $46.41 | $29.85 | −36% |
| Packaging Corporation PKG | $234.52 | $130.10 | −45% |
| International Paper Company IP | $32.52 | $21.53 | −34% |
| Ball Corporation BALL | $56.83 | $47.81 | −16% |
| Avery Dennison Corporation AVY | $170.78 | $125.35 | −27% |
| Crown Holdings CCK | $108.06 | $121.85 | +13% |
| Stora Enso Oyj STEAV | €10.45 | €9.66 | −8% |
| ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 | ¥29.00 | ¥31.90 | +10% |
| Sonoco Products Company SON | $50.06 | $61.98 | +24% |
| Greif, Inc GEF | $82.66 | $82.62 | +0% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is SIG Group (SIGCY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.70 versus a price of $16.12, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SIGCY?
Our model-based fair value for SIG Group is $10.70 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $16.12.
What is the quality score of SIGCY?
SIG Group has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SIG Group (SIGCY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.70 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.11, optimistic scenario $16.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SIG Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.70, about −34% upside versus a price of $16.12 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.11, optimistic scenario $16.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SIG Group (SIGCY)?
SIG Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €3.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does SIG Group pay a dividend?
SIG Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.28% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into SIG Group (SIGCY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SIG Group would have to grow free cash flow by +17.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SIGCY use?
Our models discount SIG Group at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.79, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SIG Group that is +17.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SIG Group (SIGCY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SIG Group grew +11.4 % a year. The price currently implies +17.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SIG Group (SIGCY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SIG Group (+17.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SIG Group (SIGCY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.10 %: that much free cash flow SIG Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SIG Group (SIGCY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SIG Group it is $10.70 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $16.12. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SIG Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SIGCY trades above its calculated fair value: price $16.12, fair value $10.70, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SIGCY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.70). For SIG Group the two are $5.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SIG Group worth?
The market values SIG Group at about $6.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $16.12; our models calculate a fair value of $10.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SIGCY?
Our models span a range for SIG Group: cautious scenario $6.11, base $10.70, optimistic $16.59 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $16.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of SIG Group (SIGCY)?
Balance-sheet figures for SIG Group (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −3.0%, debt of 0.78 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SIGCY from its 52-week high?
SIG Group trades at $16.12, about 16% below its 52-week high of $19.12 and 64% above the low of $9.83 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SIG Group?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SIG Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $16.12, calculated fair value $10.70 (−34%), Quality Score 38/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SIGCY calculated?
We run SIG Group through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. SIG Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SIG Group (SIGCY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $16.12. Our model-based fair value is $10.70, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SIG Group right now?
Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($6.11 to $16.59). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of SIG Group
How large is the market capitalisation of SIG Group (SIGCY)?
The market capitalisation of SIG Group is $6.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SIG Group (SIGCY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SIG Group is 1.82 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SIG Group (SIGCY)?
Earnings per share at SIG Group are $−0.2700. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SIG Group (SIGCY)?
The dividend yield of SIG Group is 3.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SIG Group (SIGCY)?
The net margin of SIG Group is −2.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SIG Group (SIGCY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SIG Group is −3.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SIG Group (SIGCY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SIG Group is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SIG Group (SIGCY)?
The operating margin of SIG Group is 10.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SIG Group (SIGCY)?
Revenue at SIG Group is growing −4.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SIG Group (SIGCY)?
Earnings per share at SIG Group are growing +8.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SIG Group (SIGCY) carry?
The net debt of SIG Group is €2.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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