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San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust $9.06, price $3.02, upside +200.0%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Energy · US · ISIN US7982411057

SJ San Juan Basin Royalty Trust logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

San Juan Basin Royalty Trust

SJT · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $9.06 · Strongly undervalued (+200%)
!Quality 43/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −73.4 %/yr)
✓generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (3/7)
!Narrow moat 9/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$12.13 $2.42 Fair Value $9.06 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.42 – $12.13 · fair‑value band $8.55 – $9.43 · the $3.02 price screens below the $9.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

San Juan Basin Royalty Trust operates as an express trust in Texas. It has a 75% net overriding royalty interest in Southland's oil and natural gas interests in properties located in the San Juan Basin in northwestern New Mexico.

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San Juan Basin Royalty Trust operates as an express trust in Texas. It has a 75% net overriding royalty interest in Southland's oil and natural gas interests in properties located in the San Juan Basin in northwestern New Mexico. The company also owns subject interests consist of working interests, royalty interests, overriding royalty interests, and other contractual rights in 119,000 net-producing acres in San Juan, Rio Arriba, and Sandoval Counties of northwestern New Mexico. San Juan Basin Royalty Trust was incorporated in 1980 and is based in Dallas, Texas.

Stock analysis

San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) currently trades at $3.02, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.06, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $15.76 per share, and 6 of the 9 models we run sit above the $3.02 price.

Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $9.72, and 3 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $8.55 (bear) to $9.43 (bull), the price of $3.02 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

San Juan Basin Royalty Trust reported revenue of $11.9K in FY2025 versus $37.6M in FY2021, a compound −86.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$388K in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $141M · EPS (TTM) $−0.0200 · Return on equity −32.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 523% · Operating margin −184,888% · Revenue growth (YoY) −97.6% · EPS growth (YoY) −88.6% · Free cash flow $77.6M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 200%, SJT screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $8.55 Fair Value $9.06 Bull $9.43
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $12.53 $15.65 $20.67 80
Growth DCF $12.83 $15.76 $20.13 77
5Y EBITDA Exit $6.23 $6.62 $7.14 74
All 9 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $12.53 $15.65 $20.67 80
5Y Revenue Exit $6.22 $6.59 $7.10 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $6.23 $6.62 $7.14 74
10Y Revenue Exit $9.18 $9.72 $10.10 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $9.19 $9.73 $10.12 67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $0.5300 $0.5400 $0.5500 64
EV/Revenue $0.5000 $0.5000 $0.5000 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.0200 $0.0300 $0.0500 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $12.83 $15.76 $20.13 77

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29

Profitability 3
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 13
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 58
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 67
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 17
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 11/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−99.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−94.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−73.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −52.3% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
83.8% (2020) → −3,262.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/6 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 43 · Below median
Fair Value upside +200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −22% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −98% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/FCF 1.8× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 0.72× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 10
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 74

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

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Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $57.36 $33.34 −42%
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $185.65 $242.64 +31%
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Woodside Energy Group WDS A$31.13 A$23.59 −24%
EQT Corporation EQT $51.06 $56.17 +10%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL $335.74 $318.28 −5%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SJT

Frequently asked questions

Is San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.06 versus a price of $3.02, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SJT?
Our model-based fair value for San Juan Basin Royalty Trust is $9.06 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.02.
What is the quality score of SJT?
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.06 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.55, optimistic scenario $9.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the San Juan Basin Royalty Trust stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.06, about +200% upside versus a price of $3.02 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $8.55, optimistic scenario $9.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For San Juan Basin Royalty Trust it is $9.06 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $3.02. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is San Juan Basin Royalty Trust stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SJT trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.02, fair value $9.06, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SJT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.02); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.06). For San Juan Basin Royalty Trust the two are $6.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is San Juan Basin Royalty Trust worth?
The market values San Juan Basin Royalty Trust at about $141M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $3.02; our models calculate a fair value of $9.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SJT?
Our models span a range for San Juan Basin Royalty Trust: cautious scenario $8.55, base $9.06, optimistic $9.43 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $3.02). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of SJT?
The PEG ratio of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust is 0.72 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
Balance-sheet figures for San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −32.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SJT from its 52-week high?
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust trades at $3.02, about 53% below its 52-week high of $6.47 and 25% above the low of $2.42 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to San Juan Basin Royalty Trust?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is San Juan Basin Royalty Trust stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $3.02, calculated fair value $9.06 (+200%), Quality Score 43/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SJT calculated?
We run San Juan Basin Royalty Trust through 9 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. San Juan Basin Royalty Trust currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $3.02. Our model-based fair value is $9.06, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with San Juan Basin Royalty Trust right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($8.55). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. The models converge in a tight band ($8.55 to $9.43), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Where does the earnings growth of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) come from?
Earnings per share at San Juan Basin Royalty Trust grew +1.9 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.8 %, EBIT margin +0.1 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust

How large is the market capitalisation of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
The market capitalisation of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust is $141M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
Earnings per share at San Juan Basin Royalty Trust are $−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust is −32.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust is 523% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
The operating margin of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust is −184,888% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
Revenue at San Juan Basin Royalty Trust is growing −97.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −94.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
Earnings per share at San Juan Basin Royalty Trust are growing −88.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) generate?
The free cash flow of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust is $77.6M (fiscal year 2023). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) hold?
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust holds more cash than debt, $23.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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