San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $155M
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust
SJT · US
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 21, 2026, revised from $0.5000 to $1.08 (+116.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −16.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 57% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($1.10). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The models converge in a tight band ($1.06 to $1.10), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.44 – $12.13 · fair‑value band $1.06 – $1.10 · the $2.53 price screens above the $1.08 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) currently trades at $2.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.08, implying the stock looks roughly 57.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $3.9K. It earns a return on equity of -32.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $23.3M. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.06 (bear case) to $1.10 (bull case); at $2.53, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 64% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -57%, SJT screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($15.76) versus Asset-Based ($0.0300). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 46 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust operates as an express trust in Texas. It has a 75% net overriding royalty interest in Southland's oil and natural gas interests in properties located in the San Juan Basin in northwestern New Mexico.
Full company description
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust operates as an express trust in Texas. It has a 75% net overriding royalty interest in Southland's oil and natural gas interests in properties located in the San Juan Basin in northwestern New Mexico. The company also owns subject interests consist of working interests, royalty interests, overriding royalty interests, and other contractual rights in 119,000 net-producing acres in San Juan, Rio Arriba, and Sandoval Counties of northwestern New Mexico. San Juan Basin Royalty Trust was incorporated in 1980 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust reported revenue of $11.9K in FY2025 versus $37.6M in FY2021, a compound −86.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$388K in FY2025.
of which total revenue +1.8 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.0 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
SJT screens 57% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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