San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust stock $10.52, price $4.22, upside +149.3%, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 9 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.42 – $12.13 · fair‑value band $9.76 – $11.13 · the $4.22 price screens below the $10.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.
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San Juan Basin Royalty Trust operates as an express trust in Texas. It has a 75% net overriding royalty interest in Southland's oil and natural gas interests in properties located in the San Juan Basin in northwestern New Mexico.
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The company also owns subject interests consist of working interests, royalty interests, overriding royalty interests, and other contractual rights in 119,000 net-producing acres in San Juan, Rio Arriba, and Sandoval Counties of northwestern New Mexico.
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust was incorporated in 1980 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
Stock analysis
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) currently trades at $4.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.52, implying the stock looks roughly 60% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $17.79 per share, and 6 of the 9 models we run sit above the $4.22 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $10.52, and 3 of the 9 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $9.76 (bear) to $11.13 (bull), the price of $4.22 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust reported revenue of $11.9K in FY2025 versus $37.6M in FY2021, a compound −86.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$388K in FY2025.
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 11 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 74% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 149%, SJT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$9.76Fair Value $10.52Bull$11.13
Price $4.22 · Upside +149.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.11/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−99.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−94.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−73.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −52.3% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−18.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
83.8% (2020) → −3,262.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−28.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −30.4% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 286 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/6 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Above median
Fair Value upside+149.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1.7% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−93.8% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "San Juan Basin Royalty Trust Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SJT
Frequently asked questions
Is San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.52 versus a price of $4.22, about +149% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SJT?
Our model-based fair value for San Juan Basin Royalty Trust is $10.52 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.22.
What is the quality score of SJT?
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.52 (as of Nov 10, 2026) from 9 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.76, optimistic scenario $11.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the San Juan Basin Royalty Trust stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.52, about +149% upside versus a price of $4.22 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $9.76, optimistic scenario $11.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, San Juan Basin Royalty Trust would have to grow free cash flow by -28.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -73.4 % per year. As of Nov 10, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SJT use?
Our models discount San Juan Basin Royalty Trust at 11.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.54, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For San Juan Basin Royalty Trust that is -28.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at San Juan Basin Royalty Trust grew -73.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -28.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +12.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (-28.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 39.45 %: that much free cash flow San Juan Basin Royalty Trust produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For San Juan Basin Royalty Trust it is $10.52 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $4.22. It is the blended result of 9 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is San Juan Basin Royalty Trust stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, SJT trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.22, fair value $10.52, a gap of about +149% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SJT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.52). For San Juan Basin Royalty Trust the two are $6.30 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is San Juan Basin Royalty Trust worth?
The market values San Juan Basin Royalty Trust at about $197M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $4.22; our models calculate a fair value of $10.52 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SJT?
Our models span a range for San Juan Basin Royalty Trust: cautious scenario $9.76, base $10.52, optimistic $11.13 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $4.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of SJT?
The PEG ratio of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust is 0.72 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 10, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
Balance-sheet figures for San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −36.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SJT from its 52-week high?
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust trades at $4.22, about 34% below its 52-week high of $6.44 and 74% above the low of $2.42 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.52 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to San Juan Basin Royalty Trust?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is San Juan Basin Royalty Trust stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $4.22, calculated fair value $10.52 (+149%), Quality Score 43/100, from 9 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SJT calculated?
We run San Juan Basin Royalty Trust through 9 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $10.52 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. San Juan Basin Royalty Trust currently trades 60% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $4.22. Our model-based fair value is $10.52, about +149% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with San Juan Basin Royalty Trust right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($9.76). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. The models converge in a tight band ($9.76 to $11.13), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Where does the earnings growth of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) come from?
Earnings per share at San Juan Basin Royalty Trust grew +1.9 % a year from 2012 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.8 %, EBIT margin +0.1 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust
How large is the market capitalisation of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
The market capitalisation of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust is $197M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
Earnings per share at San Juan Basin Royalty Trust are $−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust is −36.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust is 523% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
The operating margin of San Juan Basin Royalty Trust is −107,811% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
Revenue at San Juan Basin Royalty Trust is growing −93.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg −94.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT)?
Earnings per share at San Juan Basin Royalty Trust are growing −88.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does San Juan Basin Royalty Trust (SJT) hold?
San Juan Basin Royalty Trust holds more cash than debt, $23.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Nov 10, 2026