AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of AB SKF (publ) SEK 231, price SEK 277, upside -16.5%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 135.03 – kr 279.00 · fair‑value band kr 154.77 – kr 292.31 · the kr 276.50 price screens above the kr 230.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
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AB SKF (publ) designs, manufactures, and sells bearings and units, seals, lubrication systems, condition monitoring, and services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Industrial and Automotive.
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AB SKF (publ) designs, manufactures, and sells bearings and units, seals, lubrication systems, condition monitoring, and services worldwide. It operates in two segments, Industrial and Automotive. The company offers rolling, mounted and housings, super-precision, slewing, plain, magnetic, and thin section bearings; industrial and automotive seals; lubricants, manual lubrication tools, lubricators, automatic lubrication systems, and lubrication system components; maintenance products, such as hydraulic, mechanical, and alignment tools, as well as heaters; belts, pulleys, chains, sprockets, bushings and hubs, couplings, and bolts and tightening systems; condition monitoring systems; test and measuring equipment, such as waviness and roundness analyzers, noise and vibration testers, and grease test rigs, as well as calibration with traceability, machine training and support, and upgrades and refurbishment services; and vehicle aftermarket products. It provides application engineering services consisting of technical consultancy, numerical simulation and design, and root cause analysis; asset management services, such as assessment and benchmarking, maintenance strategy review, spare parts and inventory management, and lubrication management; condition-based maintenance, including vibration analysis and diagnostics, thermography, lubrication analysis, and condition monitoring system installation; mechanical maintenance comprising mounting and dismounting, precision alignment, and balancing; remanufacturing and customization; and training solutions, which include instructor-led training, e-learning courses, and webinar recordings. It serves the aerospace, agriculture, automotive, construction, food and beverage, general machinery, machine tools, marine, material handling, metals, mining, mineral processing, ocean energy, pulp and paper, railways, and wind industries. The company was incorporated in 1907 and is headquartered in Gothenburg, Sweden.
Stock analysis
AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A) currently trades at kr 276.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 230.97, 16.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of kr 181.11 per share, and 2 of the 23 models we run sit above the kr 276.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 78.80, and 21 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: kr 154.77 (bear) to kr 292.31 (bull), the price of kr 276.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
AB SKF (publ) reported revenue of 91.6B SEK in FY2025 versus 81.7B SEK in FY2021, a compound +2.9%/yr. Reported net income was 3.9B SEK in FY2025, compounding −14.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 126B SEK (≈ $12.5B) · P/E ratio 31.4 · P/S ratio 1.35 · EPS (TTM) kr 8.25 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 4.3% · Return on equity 8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −16%, SKF-A screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 154.77Fair Value kr 230.97Bull kr 292.31
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.3781 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.56/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.9% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−1.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6.7% vs −0.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.8% a year for the price and +0.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tools & Accessories · 127 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score62 · Above median
Fair Value upside−16.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)8.3% · Above median
Return on assets4.3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)5.0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)9.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.22× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Tools & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
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Is AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 230.97 versus a price of kr 276.50, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SKF-A?
Our model-based fair value for AB SKF (publ) is kr 230.97 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 276.50.
What is the quality score of SKF-A?
AB SKF (publ) has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 230.97 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 154.77, optimistic scenario kr 292.31. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AB SKF (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 230.97, about −16% upside versus a price of kr 276.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 154.77, optimistic scenario kr 292.31. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A)?
AB SKF (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 89.5B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does AB SKF (publ) pay a dividend?
AB SKF (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.80% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AB SKF (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +13.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.1 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SKF-A use?
Our models discount AB SKF (publ) at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.85, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AB SKF (publ) that is +13.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AB SKF (publ) grew +4.1 % a year. The price currently implies +13.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AB SKF (publ) (+13.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.62 %: that much free cash flow AB SKF (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AB SKF (publ) it is kr 230.97 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of kr 276.50. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AB SKF (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, SKF-A trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 276.50, fair value kr 230.97, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SKF-A?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 276.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 230.97). For AB SKF (publ) the two are kr 45.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AB SKF (publ) worth?
The market values AB SKF (publ) at about 126B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is kr 276.50; our models calculate a fair value of kr 230.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SKF-A?
Our models span a range for AB SKF (publ): cautious scenario kr 154.77, base kr 230.97, optimistic kr 292.31 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price kr 276.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SKF-A?
AB SKF (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.4 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 230.97 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.7, P/B 2.4, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 12.4.
What is the PEG ratio of SKF-A?
The PEG ratio of AB SKF (publ) is 0.66 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 30, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A)?
Balance-sheet figures for AB SKF (publ) (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 8.3%, debt of 0.22 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SKF-A from its 52-week high?
AB SKF (publ) trades at kr 276.50, about 1% below its 52-week high of kr 279.00 and 33% above the low of kr 208.46 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 230.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AB SKF (publ)?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Techtronic Industries Company, Snap-on Incorporated, RBC Bearings Incorporated, Lincoln Electric Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AB SKF (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price kr 276.50, calculated fair value kr 230.97 (−16%), Quality Score 62/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SKF-A calculated?
We run AB SKF (publ) through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 230.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. AB SKF (publ) itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was kr 276.50. Our model-based fair value is kr 230.97, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AB SKF (publ) right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (kr 154.77 to kr 292.31) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A) come from?
Earnings per share at AB SKF (publ) grew +3.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.3 %, EBIT margin −0.3 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of AB SKF (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A)?
The market capitalisation of AB SKF (publ) is 126B SEK (≈ $12.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AB SKF (publ) is 1.35 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A)?
Earnings per share at AB SKF (publ) are kr 8.25 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A)?
The dividend yield of AB SKF (publ) is 2.8% (payout 93.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A)?
The net margin of AB SKF (publ) is 4.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AB SKF (publ) is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AB SKF (publ) is 8.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A)?
The operating margin of AB SKF (publ) is 9.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A)?
Revenue at AB SKF (publ) is growing +0.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A)?
Earnings per share at AB SKF (publ) are growing +145% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does AB SKF (publ) (SKF-A) carry?
The net debt of AB SKF (publ) is 6.2B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 30, 2026