Serko Ltd (SKO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Serko Ltd A$0.80, price A$1.23, upside -34.7%, quality 61 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$1.06 – A$8.00 · fair‑value band A$0.5300 – A$1.23 · the A$1.23 price screens above the A$0.8000 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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Serko Limited provides online travel booking and expense management services in New Zealand, Australia, the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company offers solutions for travelers to book and manage their work trips and travel programmes.
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Serko Limited provides online travel booking and expense management services in New Zealand, Australia, the United States, Europe, and internationally. The company offers solutions for travelers to book and manage their work trips and travel programmes. It provides Booking.com for Business, that is used by small-to-medium businesses; Zeno for managed business travel; and GetThere, a corporate booking tool. The company also offers Serko.ai, an agentic AI offering. Serko Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Auckland, New Zealand.
Stock analysis
Serko Ltd (SKO) currently trades at A$1.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.8000, implying the stock looks roughly 53.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$0.8600 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the A$1.23 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at A$0.3800, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: A$0.5300 (bear) to A$1.23 (bull), the price of A$1.23 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Serko Ltd reported revenue of 120M NZD in FY2026 versus 17.9M NZD in FY2022, a compound +61.1%/yr. Reported net income was −17.9M NZD in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$151M (≈ $106M) · P/S ratio 1.29 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.1100 · Net margin −14.9% · Return on equity −18.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −19.0% · Operating margin −14.1% · Revenue (TTM) 119M NZD.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 55% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −35%, SKO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear A$0.5300Fair Value A$0.8000Bull A$1.23
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+35.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+37.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+57.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +24.8% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.1%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−225.1% (2021) → −10.8% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+19.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in NZD, New Zealand: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.0% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +16.3% a year for the price and +8.5% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Infrastructure · 370 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score61 · Above median
Fair Value upside−34.7% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−5.9% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−14.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−14.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth23.9% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Infrastructure median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.19× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.89× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF18.4× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 24
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 52
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 36
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Serko Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SKO
Frequently asked questions
Is Serko Ltd (SKO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.8000 versus a price of A$1.23, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SKO?
Our model-based fair value for Serko Ltd is A$0.8000 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$1.23.
What is the quality score of SKO?
Serko Ltd has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Serko Ltd (SKO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.8000 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.5300, optimistic scenario A$1.23. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Serko Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.8000, about −35% upside versus a price of A$1.23 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.5300, optimistic scenario A$1.23. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Serko Ltd (SKO)?
Serko Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 119M NZD (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Serko Ltd (SKO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Serko Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +19.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +57.5 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SKO use?
Our models discount Serko Ltd at 12.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Serko Ltd that is +19.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Serko Ltd (SKO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Serko Ltd grew +57.5 % a year. The price currently implies +19.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Serko Ltd (SKO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Serko Ltd (+19.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Serko Ltd (SKO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.07 %: that much free cash flow Serko Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Serko Ltd (SKO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Serko Ltd it is A$0.8000 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of A$1.23. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Serko Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, SKO trades above its calculated fair value: price A$1.23, fair value A$0.8000, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SKO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$1.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.8000). For Serko Ltd the two are A$0.4250 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Serko Ltd worth?
The market values Serko Ltd at about A$151M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is A$1.23; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.8000 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SKO?
Our models span a range for Serko Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.5300, base A$0.8000, optimistic A$1.23 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price A$1.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Serko Ltd (SKO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Serko Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −18.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 61/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SKO from its 52-week high?
Serko Ltd trades at A$1.23, about 55% below its 52-week high of A$2.72 and 16% above the low of A$1.06 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.8000 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Serko Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Microsoft Corporation, Palantir Technologies Inc, Oracle Corporation, CrowdStrike Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Serko Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price A$1.23, calculated fair value A$0.8000 (−35%), Quality Score 61/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SKO calculated?
We run Serko Ltd through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.8000, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Serko Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Serko Ltd (SKO)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was A$1.23. Our model-based fair value is A$0.8000, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Serko Ltd right now?
The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$0.5300 to A$1.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Serko Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Serko Ltd (SKO)?
The market capitalisation of Serko Ltd is A$151M (≈ $106M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Serko Ltd (SKO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Serko Ltd is 1.29 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Serko Ltd (SKO)?
Earnings per share at Serko Ltd are A$−0.1100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Serko Ltd (SKO)?
The net margin of Serko Ltd is −14.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Serko Ltd (SKO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Serko Ltd is −18.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Serko Ltd (SKO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Serko Ltd is −19.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Serko Ltd (SKO)?
The operating margin of Serko Ltd is −14.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Serko Ltd (SKO)?
Revenue at Serko Ltd is growing +23.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +37.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Serko Ltd (SKO) hold?
Serko Ltd holds more cash than debt, 7.3M NZD net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 27, 2026