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Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company stock $37.63, price $64.71, that is 41.9% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 20 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Basic Materials US

SM Scotts Miracle-Gro Company logo Some data Nov 8, 2026

Scotts Miracle-Gro Company

SMG · US
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 42% below what the stock costs today.

Quality 60/100
Generates free cash flow
4.1% dividend yield · Sustainable
Positive coverage
Thin margins · 2.1% net margin (TTM)
Negative equity (buybacks among others)
Mixed vs. peers (6/12)
Insiders sold $2.2M (6M)
Some data
Fair value $37.63 · Strongly overvalued (−41.9%)
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −7.8 %/yr in USD)
Narrow moat 40/100
⟳ Cyclical

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Price drop: Skepticism about future earnings growth after the August analyst day
Watch Scotts Miracle-Gro Company for free: we tell you when fair value or trend changes. Watch for free

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$145.42 $33.93 Fair Value $37.63 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $33.93 – $145.42 · fair‑value band $20.59 – $57.90 · the $64.71 price screens above the $37.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of products for lawn, garden care, and indoor and hydroponic gardening in the United States and internationally.

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The company provides lawn care products, comprising lawn fertilizers, clover and grass seed products, spreaders, and other durable products, as well as lawn-related weed, pest, and disease control products; and gardening and landscape products, which include water-soluble and continuous-release plant foods, potting mixes, garden soils, mulches and ground cover products, plant-related pest and disease control products, organic garden products, and live goods and seeding solutions.

It also offers hydroponic products that help users to grow plants, flowers, and vegetables using little or no soil; lighting systems and components; insect, rodent, and weed control products for home areas; and non-selective weed killer products.

The company sells its products under the Scotts, Turf Builder, Grower's Edge, EZ Seed, PatchMaster, Thick'R Lawn, GrubEx, EdgeGuard, Whirl, Wizz, Miracle-Gro, LiquaFeed, Shake "N Feed, Hyponex, Earthgro, Miracle-Gro Organic, CAN-FAN, CAN-FILTERS, EcoPlus, Bug B Gon, Nature Scapes, Ortho, Miracle-Gro Performance Organics, Miracle-Gro Organic Choice, Whitney Farms, Ortho Max, Home Defense, Mother Earth, Botanicare, General Hydroponics, CYCO, Gavita, Agrolux, HydroLogic Purification System, Gro Pro, AeroGarden, Titan, Tomcat, Ortho Weed B Gon, Roundup, Groundclear, and Alchemist brands.

It serves home centers, mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs, large hardware chains, independent hardware stores, nurseries, garden centers, e-commerce platforms, and food and drug stores, as well as indoor gardening and hydroponic distributors, retailers, and growers.

The company was formerly known as The Scotts Company. The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company was founded in 1868 and is headquartered in Marysville, Ohio.

Stock analysis

Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) currently trades at $64.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $37.63, 42% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $41.26 per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the $64.71 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $14.58, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $20.59 (bear) to $57.90 (bull), the price of $64.71 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Scotts Miracle-Gro Company reported revenue of $3.3B in FY2026 versus $3.9B in FY2022, a compound −4.3%/yr. Reported net income was $104M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap $3.8B Mid · P/E ratio 23.1 · P/S ratio 0.73 · EPS (TTM) $2.80 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 3.2% · Return on equity −47.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% (4-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 40 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −42%, SMG screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $20.59 Fair Value $37.63 Bull $57.90
Price $64.71 · Downside -41.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 1 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0171 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF $16.32 $30.38 $48.92 78
Growth DCF $17.27 $30.34 $46.69 77
5Y EBITDA Exit $17.48 $40.55 $67.36 72
All 20 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $16.32 $30.38 $48.92 78
5Y Revenue Exit $18.64 $42.57 $73.32 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $17.48 $40.55 $67.36 72
5Y P/E Exit n/a $8.50 $18.34 68
10Y Revenue Exit $15.85 $34.98 $57.33 64
10Y EBITDA Exit $16.51 $33.79 $53.67 66
10Y P/E Exit $6.39 $14.96 $23.58 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $12.14 $23.84 $29.85 66
EPV $7.23 $12.54 $16.91 71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $19.46 $25.45 $30.73 69
DDM Multi-Stage $19.46 $25.32 $31.09 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $22.75 $30.34 $37.92 63
P/S Multiple $22.75 $30.34 $37.92 58
EV/EBIT $33.09 $57.54 $81.99 64
EV/EBITDA $20.88 $41.26 $61.64 64
EV/Revenue $19.06 $44.48 $69.90 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $17.27 $30.34 $46.69 77
Rev-Margin DCF $18.64 $43.49 $71.08 70
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $7.99 $14.58 $20.87 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $16.60 $23.71 $30.83 67

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 56
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 64
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 36
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 98
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 23
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 43
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 62
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 69
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $2.2M and none bought.

  • SaleMark D KingdonDirector831 shares at $61.65$51,231Aug 10, 2026
  • SaleHagedorn Partnership, L.P.Director, 10% owner2× since Feb 12, 2026: 80,000 shares, avg. $66.79$5.3MAug 3, 2026
  • SaleStephen L JohnsonDirector1,171 shares at $68.32$80,000Jul 30, 2026
  • BuyMark J ScheiwerEVP, CFO & CAO693 shares at $71.44$49,508Feb 24, 2026

Plus 23 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.8%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.5% a year
Revenue growth 36 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−21.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−25.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−25.9% vs −7.0%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +13.0% a year for the price and +0.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.2%
Forecast 2028 (sales)+3.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.7%
Projected 2031 (sales)+2.6%

SMG screens overvalued: fair value 42% below the price. Compare with Nutrien Ltd →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Note from the team Oct 19, 2026
AI conclusion: Positive cash flow and consumer brand exposure offer some support while high leverage, negative equity and weak ROE limit any durable competitive advantage.
Main risk: Failure of the technology push and SMG 2.0 strategy to deliver growth would hit future earnings prospects amid modest revenue expansion.
Scotts Miracle-Gro beat third-quarter earnings estimates while revenue grew only modestly. The market remains skeptical about future earnings growth after the August analyst day despite debt reduction and capital allocation moves. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the push into technology and the SMG 2.0 strategy deliver enough growth to ease those doubts or leave the caution in place?
Join the discussion →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 162 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 60 · Above median
Fair Value upside −41.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets 3.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months) 2.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months) 16.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 1.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 4.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 23.1× · Pricier than median
P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months) 1.10× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 13.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 10.9× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.87× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)6 · sector 17
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)82 · sector 40

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Nutrien Ltd NTR $71.48 $83.09 +16% vs SMG
Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 ¥23.15 ¥26.81 +16% vs SMG
The Mosaic Company MOS $22.36 $25.77 +15% vs SMG
Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 ¥36.68 ¥38.01 +4% vs SMG
ICL Group ICL $4.68 $4.84 +3% vs SMG
Yara International ASA YAR kr 401.00 kr 409.02 +2% vs SMG
CF Industries Holdings CF $119.39 $114.88 −4% vs SMG
UPL Limited UPL ₹534.90 ₹478.29 −11% vs SMG
Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 ¥26.22 ¥17.67 −33% vs SMG
Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL ₹1,824 ₹1,129 −38% vs SMG

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Scotts Miracle-Gro Company: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SMG

Frequently asked questions

Is Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $37.63 versus a price of $64.71, about 42% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SMG?
Our model-based fair value for Scotts Miracle-Gro Company is $37.63 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $64.71.
What is the quality score of SMG?
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $37.63 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 20 valuation models. Cautious scenario $20.59, optimistic scenario $57.90. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Scotts Miracle-Gro Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $37.63, about 42% lower versus a price of $64.71 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $20.59, optimistic scenario $57.90. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Scotts Miracle-Gro Company pay a dividend?
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company currently shows a dividend yield of 4.08% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company pays a dividend of $2.64 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 21, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2005. The payout ratio is 94.3% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.81 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Scotts Miracle-Gro Company would have to grow free cash flow by +15.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -7.8 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SMG use?
Our models discount Scotts Miracle-Gro Company at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.85, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Scotts Miracle-Gro Company that is +15.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Scotts Miracle-Gro Company grew -7.8 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +15.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (+15.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.28 %: that much free cash flow Scotts Miracle-Gro Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Scotts Miracle-Gro Company it is $37.63 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $64.71. It is the blended result of 20 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Scotts Miracle-Gro Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, SMG trades above its calculated fair value: price $64.71, fair value $37.63, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($64.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($37.63). For Scotts Miracle-Gro Company the two are $27.08 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Scotts Miracle-Gro Company worth?
The market values Scotts Miracle-Gro Company at about $3.8B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $64.71; our models calculate a fair value of $37.63 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMG?
Our models span a range for Scotts Miracle-Gro Company: cautious scenario $20.59, base $37.63, optimistic $57.90 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $64.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SMG?
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.1 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $37.63 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 23.0. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 10.9.
What is the PEG ratio of SMG?
The PEG ratio of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company is 0.87 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (as of Nov 8, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMG from its 52-week high?
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company trades at $64.71, about 11% below its 52-week high of $72.68 and 34% above the low of $48.44 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $37.63 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Scotts Miracle-Gro Company?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nutrien Ltd, Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co, CF Industries Holdings, Yara International ASA, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Scotts Miracle-Gro Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $64.71, calculated fair value $37.63 (−42%), Quality Score 60/100, from 20 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMG calculated?
We run Scotts Miracle-Gro Company through 20 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $37.63 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Scotts Miracle-Gro Company itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $64.71. Our model-based fair value is $37.63, about 42% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Scotts Miracle-Gro Company right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($57.90). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide ($20.59 to $57.90). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) come from?
Earnings per share at Scotts Miracle-Gro Company grew −6.0 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.2 %, EBIT margin −2.1 %, tax rate −1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company

How large is the market capitalisation of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
The market capitalisation of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company is $3.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company is 0.73 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
Earnings per share at Scotts Miracle-Gro Company are $2.80 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
The dividend yield of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company is 4.1% (payout 94.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
The net margin of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company is 3.2% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company is −47.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company is 1.3% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
The operating margin of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company is 16.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
Revenue at Scotts Miracle-Gro Company is growing +1.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
Earnings per share at Scotts Miracle-Gro Company are growing −25.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) carry?
The net debt of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company is $2.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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