Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company stock $37.63, price $64.71, that is 41.9% below the price, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 20 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
SMG · USOur calculation puts a fair price 42% below what the stock costs today.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $33.93 – $145.42 · fair‑value band $20.59 – $57.90 · the $64.71 price screens above the $37.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Company profile
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of products for lawn, garden care, and indoor and hydroponic gardening in the United States and internationally.
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The company provides lawn care products, comprising lawn fertilizers, clover and grass seed products, spreaders, and other durable products, as well as lawn-related weed, pest, and disease control products; and gardening and landscape products, which include water-soluble and continuous-release plant foods, potting mixes, garden soils, mulches and ground cover products, plant-related pest and disease control products, organic garden products, and live goods and seeding solutions.
It also offers hydroponic products that help users to grow plants, flowers, and vegetables using little or no soil; lighting systems and components; insect, rodent, and weed control products for home areas; and non-selective weed killer products.
The company sells its products under the Scotts, Turf Builder, Grower's Edge, EZ Seed, PatchMaster, Thick'R Lawn, GrubEx, EdgeGuard, Whirl, Wizz, Miracle-Gro, LiquaFeed, Shake "N Feed, Hyponex, Earthgro, Miracle-Gro Organic, CAN-FAN, CAN-FILTERS, EcoPlus, Bug B Gon, Nature Scapes, Ortho, Miracle-Gro Performance Organics, Miracle-Gro Organic Choice, Whitney Farms, Ortho Max, Home Defense, Mother Earth, Botanicare, General Hydroponics, CYCO, Gavita, Agrolux, HydroLogic Purification System, Gro Pro, AeroGarden, Titan, Tomcat, Ortho Weed B Gon, Roundup, Groundclear, and Alchemist brands.
It serves home centers, mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs, large hardware chains, independent hardware stores, nurseries, garden centers, e-commerce platforms, and food and drug stores, as well as indoor gardening and hydroponic distributors, retailers, and growers.
The company was formerly known as The Scotts Company. The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company was founded in 1868 and is headquartered in Marysville, Ohio.
Stock analysis
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) currently trades at $64.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $37.63, 42% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $41.26 per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the $64.71 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $14.58, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $20.59 (bear) to $57.90 (bull), the price of $64.71 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company reported revenue of $3.3B in FY2026 versus $3.9B in FY2022, a compound −4.3%/yr. Reported net income was $104M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $3.8B Mid · P/E ratio 23.1 · P/S ratio 0.73 · EPS (TTM) $2.80 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 3.2% · Return on equity −47.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% (4-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 40 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −42%, SMG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 20 models by family
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Quality Score breakdown
It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.
Insider trades
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $2.2M and none bought.
- SaleMark D KingdonDirector831 shares at $61.65$51,231Aug 10, 2026
- SaleHagedorn Partnership, L.P.Director, 10% owner2× since Feb 12, 2026: 80,000 shares, avg. $66.79$5.3MAug 3, 2026
- SaleStephen L JohnsonDirector1,171 shares at $68.32$80,000Jul 30, 2026
- BuyMark J ScheiwerEVP, CFO & CAO693 shares at $71.44$49,508Feb 24, 2026
Plus 23 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
SMG screens overvalued: fair value 42% below the price. Compare with Nutrien Ltd →
Recent news
- Here's What Key Metrics Tell Us About Scotts (SMG) Q4 Earnings
- Scotts: Fiscal Q4 Earnings Snapshot
- Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) Reports Q4 Loss, Misses Revenue Estimates
- ScottsMiracle-Gro Reports Strong Fiscal 2026 Full-Year Results
Compare Scotts Miracle-Gro Company with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Agricultural Inputs · 162 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Materials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Revenue growth by industry
- PEG ratio by industry
- PEG screener for stocks with fair value
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value | Compare |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nutrien Ltd NTR | $71.48 | $83.09 | +16% | vs SMG |
| Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 | ¥23.15 | ¥26.81 | +16% | vs SMG |
| The Mosaic Company MOS | $22.36 | $25.77 | +15% | vs SMG |
| Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 | ¥36.68 | ¥38.01 | +4% | vs SMG |
| ICL Group ICL | $4.68 | $4.84 | +3% | vs SMG |
| Yara International ASA YAR | kr 401.00 | kr 409.02 | +2% | vs SMG |
| CF Industries Holdings CF | $119.39 | $114.88 | −4% | vs SMG |
| UPL Limited UPL | ₹534.90 | ₹478.29 | −11% | vs SMG |
| Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 | ¥26.22 | ¥17.67 | −33% | vs SMG |
| Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL | ₹1,824 | ₹1,129 | −38% | vs SMG |
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Key figures of Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
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