The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $3.6B
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company
SMG · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 21 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price −3.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 57% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($41.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($19.88 to $41.92) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $34.30 – $201.46 · fair‑value band $19.88 – $41.92 · the $62.91 price screens above the $26.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) currently trades at $62.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.95, implying the stock looks roughly 57.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company generated revenue of $3.5B at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue grew 5.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -47.6%. Net debt stands at $2.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $19.88 (bear case) to $41.92 (bull case); at $62.91, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -13% fair-value upside, at -57%, SMG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 21 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($42.43) versus Earnings-Based ($16.45). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of products for lawn, garden care, and indoor and hydroponic gardening in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, marketing, and sale of products for lawn, garden care, and indoor and hydroponic gardening in the United States and internationally. The company provides lawn care products, comprising lawn fertilizers, clover and grass seed products, spreaders, and other durable products, as well as lawn-related weed, pest, and disease control products; and gardening and landscape products, which include water-soluble and continuous-release plant foods, potting mixes, garden soils, mulches and ground cover products, plant-related pest and disease control products, organic garden products, and live goods and seeding solutions. It also offers hydroponic products that help users to grow plants, flowers, and vegetables using little or no soil; lighting systems and components; insect, rodent, and weed control products for home areas; and non-selective weed killer products. The company sells its products under the Scotts, Turf Builder, Grower's Edge, EZ Seed, PatchMaster, Thick'R Lawn, GrubEx, EdgeGuard, Whirl, Wizz, Miracle-Gro, LiquaFeed, Shake "N Feed, Hyponex, Earthgro, Miracle-Gro Organic, CAN-FAN, CAN-FILTERS, EcoPlus, Bug B Gon, Nature Scapes, Ortho, Miracle-Gro Performance Organics, Miracle-Gro Organic Choice, Whitney Farms, Ortho Max, Home Defense, Mother Earth, Botanicare, General Hydroponics, CYCO, Gavita, Agrolux, HydroLogic Purification System, Gro Pro, AeroGarden, Titan, Tomcat, Ortho Weed B Gon, Roundup, Groundclear, and Alchemist brands. It serves home centers, mass merchandisers, warehouse clubs, large hardware chains, independent hardware stores, nurseries, garden centers, e-commerce platforms, and food and drug stores, as well as indoor gardening and hydroponic distributors, retailers, and growers. The company was formerly known as The Scotts Company. The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company was founded in 1868 and is headquartered in Marysville, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company reported revenue of $3.4B in FY2025 versus $4.9B in FY2021, a compound −8.8%/yr. Reported net income was $145M in FY2025, compounding −27.0%/yr from FY2021.
SMG screens 57% overvalued. Compare with Corteva, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- SMG Q3 Earnings Beat on Bonnie Plants JV Strength, Revenues Miss
- The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company Outlines Mid-Range Financial Targets For Next 3 Years
- ScottsMiracle-Gro Announces Financial Targets and Capital Allocation Strategy During Investor Day 2026 at NYSE
- ScottsMiracle-Gro Announces Speakers and Other Details for its Investor Day on August 4, 2026
Peer Group
Agricultural Inputs · 179 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Agricultural Inputs median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Agricultural Inputs stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corteva, Inc CTVA | $86.07 | $27.81 | -68% |
| Nutrien Ltd NTR | C$94.23 | C$81.69 | -13% |
| Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co 000792 | ¥24.93 | ¥21.26 | -15% |
| CF Industries Holdings CF | $119.19 | $161.00 | +35% |
| SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company 2020 | 122.90 SAR | 127.31 SAR | +4% |
| Yara International ASA YAR | kr 451.30 | kr 67.25 | -85% |
| Yunnan Yuntianhua Co 600096 | ¥30.17 | ¥42.12 | +40% |
| Asia-potash International Investment (Guangzhou)Co.,Ltd., 000893 | ¥42.59 | ¥38.01 | -11% |
| Coromandel International Limited COROMANDEL | ₹2,034 | ₹1,129 | -44% |
| UPL Limited UPL | ₹594.75 | ₹387.06 | -35% |
Compare The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Basic Materials stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of SMG?
What is the quality score of SMG?
What is the revenue of The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (SMG)?
What is the net profit margin of SMG?
Does The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.