PT Sumber Mineral Global Abadi Tbk (SMGA) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · ID · Market cap 569B IDR
Fair value as of: Jul 11, 2026
From 15 valuation models · updated 30 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 11, 2026, revised from 109.92 IDR to 37.39 IDR (−66.0%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +15.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 49% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (46.86 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
How to read this chart
30‑month range 50.00 IDR – 142.00 IDR · fair‑value band 27.93 IDR – 46.86 IDR · the 74.00 IDR price screens above the 37.39 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 11, 2026.
Analysis
PT Sumber Mineral Global Abadi Tbk (SMGA) currently trades at 74.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 37.39 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 49.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, PT Sumber Mineral Global Abadi Tbk generated revenue of 2.2T IDR at a net margin of 2.4%. Revenue grew 76.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.2%. Net debt stands at 11.9B IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 11, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 27.93 IDR (bear case) to 46.86 IDR (bull case); at 74.00 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -49%, SMGA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 15 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (247.88 IDR) versus Asset-Based (31.06 IDR). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 11, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 19
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
PT Sumber Mineral Global Abadi Tbk engages in wholesale trading of solid, liquid, and gas fuels and related products, and metals and metal ores in Indonesia and internationally. The company engages in metal and ore; sand and nickel; cement, lime, sand, stone wholesale trade; and solid liquid fuel and gas wholesale trading and products businesses.
Full company description
PT Sumber Mineral Global Abadi Tbk engages in wholesale trading of solid, liquid, and gas fuels and related products, and metals and metal ores in Indonesia and internationally. The company engages in metal and ore; sand and nickel; cement, lime, sand, stone wholesale trade; and solid liquid fuel and gas wholesale trading and products businesses. It trades nickel, limestone, silica sand, and coal products. The company was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia. PT Sumber Mineral Global Abadi Tbk is a subsidiary of PT Sumber Global Energy Tbk.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
PT Sumber Mineral Global Abadi Tbk reported revenue of 1.9T IDR in FY2025 versus 8.3B IDR in FY2021, a compound +290.9%/yr. Reported net income was 48.1B IDR in FY2025, compounding +237.6%/yr from FY2021.
SMGA screens 49% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 475 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 11, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 942.42 MXN | -34% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.19 | $9.14 | -36% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| Fortescue Ltd FMG | A$18.47 | A$18.62 | +1% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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