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PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (SMGR) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · ID · Market cap 10.1T IDR

PS PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk SMGR · JK
Price1,620 IDR
Fair Value2,568 IDR
Upside+58.6%
Quality51/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 0.6% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (7/15)
Narrow moat 23/100
Evidence: Medium Range 1,031 IDR – 3,222 IDR Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Share price +14.1% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 59% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide (1,031 IDR to 3,222 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid quality (51/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

10,039 IDR 1,395 IDR Fair Value 2,568 IDR Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 1,395 IDR – 10,039 IDR · fair‑value band 1,031 IDR – 3,222 IDR · the 1,620 IDR price screens below the 2,568 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (SMGR) currently trades at 1,620 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 2,568 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 58.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk generated revenue of 35.9T IDR at a net margin of 0.6%. Revenue grew 8.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.4%. Net debt stands at 5.8T IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 1,031 IDR (bear case) to 3,222 IDR (bull case); at 1,620 IDR, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at 59%, SMGR screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 4,580 IDR 7,018 IDR 10,682 IDR 80
Residual Income 4,427 IDR 4,140 IDR 2,930 IDR 76
Rev-Margin DCF 2,774 IDR 4,191 IDR 5,832 IDR 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 4,479 IDR 7,205 IDR 11,556 IDR 38
Owner Earnings 3,992 IDR 6,430 IDR 10,323 IDR 31
5Y Revenue Exit 2,774 IDR 4,145 IDR 5,846 IDR 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 4,605 IDR 7,564 IDR 10,996 IDR 41
5Y P/E Exit 1,616 IDR 1,984 IDR 2,328 IDR 38
10Y Revenue Exit 3,259 IDR 4,668 IDR 6,477 IDR 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 4,521 IDR 7,093 IDR 10,491 IDR 37
10Y P/E Exit 2,573 IDR 3,135 IDR 3,735 IDR 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 192.67 IDR 591.77 IDR 785.99 IDR 54
Lynch FV 127.53 IDR 182.19 IDR 236.85 IDR 50
PEG = 1.0 127.53 IDR 182.19 IDR 236.85 IDR 46
EPV 1,599 IDR 1,907 IDR 2,182 IDR 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 926.48 IDR 2,023 IDR 3,403 IDR 70
DDM Multi-Stage 926.48 IDR 1,553 IDR 2,108 IDR 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 361.26 IDR 481.69 IDR 602.11 IDR 63
P/S Multiple 361.26 IDR 481.69 IDR 602.11 IDR 58
P/B Multiple 361.26 IDR 481.69 IDR 602.11 IDR 55
EV/EBIT 2,345 IDR 3,176 IDR 4,008 IDR 53
EV/EBITDA 5,260 IDR 7,064 IDR 8,867 IDR 54
EV/Revenue 2,012 IDR 2,939 IDR 3,865 IDR 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 3,226 IDR 4,323 IDR 6,453 IDR 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 4,580 IDR 7,018 IDR 10,682 IDR 80
Rev-Margin DCF 2,774 IDR 4,191 IDR 5,832 IDR 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 4,427 IDR 4,140 IDR 2,930 IDR 76
ROIC Compounder 1,599 IDR 1,907 IDR 2,182 IDR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 304.64 IDR 435.20 IDR 565.76 IDR 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (4,668 IDR) versus Earnings-Based (182.19 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 35.9T IDR
Revenue growth (YoY) +8.3%
Net margin 0.6%
Return on equity 0.4%
Free cash flow 2.6T IDR FY2025
P/E ratio 47.0
More key figures
Operating margin 3.1%
EPS (TTM) 34.01 IDR
EPS growth (YoY) +88.7%
Net debt 5.8T IDR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 19
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 44
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 64
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 8
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk manufactures, packs, and distributes cement in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Cement Production and Non-Cement Production segments.

Full company description

PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk manufactures, packs, and distributes cement in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Cement Production and Non-Cement Production segments. The company is also involved in limestone and clay mining; cement bag manufacturing; industrial real estate development and building rental; ready-mix concrete and aggregates quarry production; and mining, trading, transportation, and construction activities. In addition, it engages in the information system, investment, freight forwarding, stevedoring, sea transportation service, logistic management, and outsourcing businesses, as well as procures public goods and services. PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk was formerly known as PT Semen Gresik (Persero) Tbk and changed its name to PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk in January 2013. The company was founded in 1953 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia. PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Danantara Asset Management (Persero).

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk reported revenue of 35.2T IDR in FY2025 versus 35.0T IDR in FY2021, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was 191B IDR in FY2025, compounding −44.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
35.2T IDR
Latest YoY
−2.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
−1.1%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+0.0%
Avg. growth/yr (25Y)
+9.6%
Revenue +0.2%/yr
FY21 35.0T IDR
FY22 36.4T IDR
FY23 38.7T IDR
FY24 36.2T IDR
FY25 35.2T IDR
Net income −44.7%/yr
FY21 2.0T IDR
FY22 2.4T IDR
FY23 2.2T IDR
FY24 720B IDR
FY25 191B IDR

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SMGR

Peer Group

Building Materials · 254 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside +59% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 0% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Revenue growth 8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.13× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 44.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 0.23× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.28× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 2.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 2.45× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 28
FUTURE 42 · sector 2
PAST 2 · sector 15
HEALTH 94 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 42

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Building Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CRH plc CRH $102.92 $70.57 -31%
UltraTech Cement Limited ULTRACEMCO ₹11,711 ₹4,719 -60%
China Jushi Co 600176 ¥54.52 ¥13.95 -74%
Grasim Industries Limited GRASIM ₹3,073 ₹1,245 -59%
CEMEX, S.A. CEMEXCPO 21.71 MXN 15.42 MXN -29%
Anhui Conch Cement Company 600585 ¥16.99 ¥26.14 +54%
Ambuja Cements Limited AMBUJACEM ₹435.25 ₹227.96 -48%
Shree Cement Limited SHREECEM ₹26,930 ₹8,215 -69%
TCC Group 1101B 43.70 TWD 10.48 TWD -76%
Taiwan Glass Ind. Corp 1802 53.30 TWD 13.98 TWD -74%

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Frequently asked questions

Is PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (SMGR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 2,568 IDR versus a price of 1,620 IDR, about +59% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SMGR?
Our model-based fair value for PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk is 2,568 IDR (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 1,620 IDR.
What is the quality score of SMGR?
PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (SMGR)?
PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 35.9T IDR (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SMGR?
The net profit margin of PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk is about 0.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 0.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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