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PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk (SMMT) Fair Value & Analysis

Energy · ID · Market cap 6.3T IDR

PG PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk SMMT · JK
Price1,845 IDR
Fair Value273.47 IDR
Upside-85.2%
Quality54/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 2.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Trails peers (4/11)
Narrow moat 27/100
Evidence: High Range 205.10 IDR – 701.81 IDR Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 15, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 26 days ago

Share price +0.8% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 85% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (701.81 IDR). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • The model range is unusually wide (205.10 IDR to 701.81 IDR). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

2,720 IDR 76.62 IDR Fair Value 273.47 IDR Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 76.62 IDR – 2,720 IDR · fair‑value band 205.10 IDR – 701.81 IDR · the 1,845 IDR price screens above the 273.47 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 15, 2026.

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Analysis

PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk (SMMT) currently trades at 1,845 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 273.47 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 85.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk generated revenue of 97.5M IDR at a net margin of 2.9%. Revenue declined 20.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.6%. Net debt stands at 384B IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 15, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 205.10 IDR (bear case) to 701.81 IDR (bull case); at 1,845 IDR, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 43% below its 52-week high and 124% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at -85%, SMMT screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model BearBaseBull Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 337.24 IDR 680.47 IDR 1,257 IDR 80
Residual Income 149.41 IDR 190.83 IDR 579.81 IDR 76
Rev-Margin DCF 288.76 IDR 498.21 IDR 936.82 IDR 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 356.55 IDR 562.26 IDR 1,235 IDR 38
Owner Earnings 646.55 IDR 1,487 IDR 3,331 IDR 31
5Y Revenue Exit 263.64 IDR 438.05 IDR 802.83 IDR 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 271.34 IDR 453.62 IDR 810.72 IDR 41
5Y P/E Exit 266.94 IDR 548.19 IDR 927.62 IDR 38
10Y Revenue Exit 285.96 IDR 597.36 IDR 793.30 IDR 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 300.62 IDR 614.34 IDR 1,151 IDR 37
10Y P/E Exit 297.34 IDR 604.64 IDR 1,101 IDR 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 132.83 IDR 926.32 IDR 1,300 IDR 54
Lynch FV 478.57 IDR 683.67 IDR 888.77 IDR 50
PEG = 1.0 478.57 IDR 683.67 IDR 888.77 IDR 46
EPV 125.48 IDR 143.97 IDR 160.41 IDR 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple 205.10 IDR 273.47 IDR 341.83 IDR 63
P/S Multiple 249.05 IDR 332.07 IDR 415.08 IDR 58
P/B Multiple 212.64 IDR 283.51 IDR 354.39 IDR 55
EV/EBIT 175.15 IDR 226.64 IDR 278.14 IDR 53
EV/EBITDA 231.46 IDR 301.72 IDR 371.99 IDR 54
EV/Revenue 208.10 IDR 288.43 IDR 368.77 IDR 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 78.75 IDR 105.53 IDR 157.51 IDR 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 337.24 IDR 680.47 IDR 1,257 IDR 80
Rev-Margin DCF 288.76 IDR 498.21 IDR 936.82 IDR 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 149.41 IDR 190.83 IDR 579.81 IDR 76
ROIC Compounder 125.48 IDR 143.97 IDR 166.02 IDR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 560.88 IDR 801.26 IDR 1,042 IDR 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (801.26 IDR) versus Asset-Based (105.53 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 97.5M IDR
Revenue growth (YoY) -20.9%
Net margin 2.9%
Return on equity 5.6%
Free cash flow 64.4B IDR FY2025
P/E ratio 116.6
More key figures
Operating margin 5.2%
EPS (TTM) 14.50 IDR
EPS growth (YoY) -65.9%
Net debt 384B IDR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 15, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64

Profitability 42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 67
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 44
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 65
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 82
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 42
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 75
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 71
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 41
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk engages in the coal mining business in Indonesia. The company owns interests in a coal concession that covers an area of 3,238 hectares located in East Kalimantan; and 2,143 hectares located in South Sumatera. It is also involved in general surveying, exploration, exploitation, processing, refining, and trading activities.

Full company description

PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk engages in the coal mining business in Indonesia. The company owns interests in a coal concession that covers an area of 3,238 hectares located in East Kalimantan; and 2,143 hectares located in South Sumatera. It is also involved in general surveying, exploration, exploitation, processing, refining, and trading activities. In addition, the company offers mining support services. The company was formerly known as PT Eatertainment International Tbk and changed its name to PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk in August 2012. PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk was incorporated in 1980 and is headquartered in Jakarta, Indonesia. PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Geo Energy Investama.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk reported revenue of 1.7T IDR in FY2025 versus 508B IDR in FY2021, a compound +35.3%/yr. Reported net income was 66.9B IDR in FY2025, compounding −26.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 77/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
1.7T IDR
Latest YoY
+108.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y)
+17.6%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y)
+52.1%
Avg. growth/yr (18Y)
+25.1%
Revenue +35.3%/yr
FY21 508B IDR
FY22 1.0T IDR
FY23 1.0T IDR
FY24 817B IDR
FY25 1.7T IDR
Net income −26.8%/yr
FY21 233B IDR
FY22 362B IDR
FY23 244B IDR
FY24 33.8B IDR
FY25 66.9B IDR

SMMT screens 85% overvalued. Compare with China Shenhua Energy Company →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SMMT

Peer Group

Thermal Coal · 101 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 54 · Above median
Fair Value upside −85% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Revenue growth -21% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 127.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 6.46× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 27
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 22 · sector 21
HEALTH 100 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 31

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Coal Oil & gas

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 15, 2026).

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Frequently asked questions

Is PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk (SMMT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 15, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 273.47 IDR versus a price of 1,845 IDR, about −85% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SMMT?
Our model-based fair value for PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk is 273.47 IDR (as of Jul 15, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 1,845 IDR.
What is the quality score of SMMT?
PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk (SMMT)?
PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 97.5M IDR (latest available figure, as of Jul 15, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SMMT?
The net profit margin of PT Golden Eagle Energy Tbk is about 2.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 2.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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