Sumiseki HoldingsInc. (SMSKF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Sumiseki HoldingsInc. $2.76, price $3.30, upside -16.2%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
42‑month range $1.55 – $4.63 · fair‑value band $2.30 – $3.71 · the $3.30 price screens above the $2.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Sumiseki Holdings,Inc. imports, purchases, and sells coal in Japan. It also manufactures, purchases, and sells industrial synthetic diamonds; and collects, processes, and sells rocks. The company invests in coal companies. Sumiseki Holdings,Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Sumiseki HoldingsInc. (SMSKF) currently trades at $3.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.76, implying the stock looks roughly 19.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $10.45 per share, and 7 of the 13 models we run sit above the $3.30 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $3.10, and 6 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $2.30 (bear) to $3.71 (bull), the price of $3.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Sumiseki HoldingsInc. reported revenue of ¥10.3B in FY2025 versus ¥9.8B in FY2021, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥4.2B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $197M · P/E ratio 12.2 · P/S ratio 4.99 · EPS (TTM) $0.2700 · Net margin 40.9% · Return on equity 9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0% · Operating margin 6.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −16%, SMSKF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.30Fair Value $2.76Bull $3.71
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.2700 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.19/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−28.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+29.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+29.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.0% → 1%
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 101 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Below median
Fair Value upside−16% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)25% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth364% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sumiseki HoldingsInc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SMSKF
Frequently asked questions
Is Sumiseki HoldingsInc. (SMSKF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.76 versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of $3.30, about −16% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SMSKF?
Our model-based fair value for Sumiseki HoldingsInc. is $2.76 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 18, 2026): $3.30.
What is the quality score of SMSKF?
Sumiseki HoldingsInc. has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sumiseki HoldingsInc. (SMSKF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.76 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.30, optimistic scenario $3.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sumiseki HoldingsInc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.76, about −16% upside versus the last price from Sep 18, 2026 of $3.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.30, optimistic scenario $3.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sumiseki HoldingsInc. (SMSKF)?
Sumiseki HoldingsInc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥10.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Sumiseki HoldingsInc. (SMSKF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sumiseki HoldingsInc. it is $2.76 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $3.30. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sumiseki HoldingsInc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SMSKF trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.30, fair value $2.76, a gap of about −16% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMSKF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.76). For Sumiseki HoldingsInc. the two are $0.5345 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sumiseki HoldingsInc. worth?
The market values Sumiseki HoldingsInc. at about $197M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $3.30; our models calculate a fair value of $2.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMSKF?
Our models span a range for Sumiseki HoldingsInc.: cautious scenario $2.30, base $2.76, optimistic $3.71 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $3.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SMSKF?
Sumiseki HoldingsInc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.76 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 34.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sumiseki HoldingsInc. (SMSKF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sumiseki HoldingsInc. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 9.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMSKF from its 52-week high?
Sumiseki HoldingsInc. trades at $3.30, about 29% below its 52-week high of $4.63 and at the low of $3.30 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sumiseki HoldingsInc.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Yankuang Energy Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sumiseki HoldingsInc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $3.30, calculated fair value $2.76 (−16%), Quality Score 41/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMSKF calculated?
We run Sumiseki HoldingsInc. through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Sumiseki HoldingsInc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sumiseki HoldingsInc. (SMSKF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 18, 2026 and stands at $3.30. Our model-based fair value is $2.76, about −16% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sumiseki HoldingsInc. right now?
Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Sumiseki HoldingsInc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Sumiseki HoldingsInc. (SMSKF)?
The market capitalisation of Sumiseki HoldingsInc. is $197M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sumiseki HoldingsInc. (SMSKF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sumiseki HoldingsInc. is 4.99 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sumiseki HoldingsInc. (SMSKF)?
Earnings per share at Sumiseki HoldingsInc. are $0.2700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Sumiseki HoldingsInc. (SMSKF)?
The net margin of Sumiseki HoldingsInc. is 40.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sumiseki HoldingsInc. (SMSKF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sumiseki HoldingsInc. is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sumiseki HoldingsInc. (SMSKF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sumiseki HoldingsInc. is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sumiseki HoldingsInc. (SMSKF)?
The operating margin of Sumiseki HoldingsInc. is 6.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sumiseki HoldingsInc. (SMSKF)?
Revenue at Sumiseki HoldingsInc. is growing +364% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sumiseki HoldingsInc. (SMSKF)?
Earnings per share at Sumiseki HoldingsInc. are growing −32.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Sumiseki HoldingsInc. (SMSKF) generate?
The free cash flow of Sumiseki HoldingsInc. is −¥185M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026