Sumiseki Holdings (SMSKF) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $197M
Sumiseki Holdings
SMSKF · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Below-average quality, and screening another 17% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- Our model range runs from $2.29 (bear) to $3.71 (bull), base $2.75. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 41/100 (below-average quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
40‑month range $1.55 – $4.63 · fair‑value band $2.29 – $3.71 · the $3.30 price screens above the $2.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Sumiseki Holdings (SMSKF) currently trades at $3.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.75, implying the stock looks roughly 16.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Sumiseki Holdings generated revenue of $10.7B at a net margin of 24.8%. It earns a return on equity of 9.2%. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 12.2. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.29 (bear case) to $3.71 (bull case); at $3.30, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at -17%, SMSKF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($10.39) versus Earnings-Based ($3.08). Highest evidence: Growth-Adj P/E (68).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Sumiseki Holdings,Inc. imports, purchases, and sells coal in Japan. It also manufactures, purchases, and sells industrial synthetic diamonds; and collects, processes, and sells rocks. The company invests in coal companies. Sumiseki Holdings,Inc. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Sumiseki Holdings reported revenue of $10.3B in FY2025 versus $9.8B in FY2021, a compound +1.2%/yr. Reported net income was $4.2B in FY2025.
SMSKF screens 17% overvalued. Compare with China Shenhua Energy Company →
Peer Group
Thermal Coal · 101 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 | ¥42.65 | ¥34.97 | -18% |
| Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT | ₹3,157 | ₹901.17 | -71% |
| Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 | ¥24.30 | ¥23.90 | -2% |
| Yankuang Energy Group 600188 | ¥20.23 | ¥13.24 | -35% |
| Coal India Limited COALINDIA | ₹427.65 | ₹464.01 | +9% |
| China Coal Energy Company 601898 | ¥12.54 | ¥13.97 | +11% |
| Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 | ¥25.13 | ¥21.99 | -12% |
| Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 | ¥16.26 | ¥7.20 | -56% |
| PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk, ADRO | 2,490 IDR | 3,220 IDR | +29% |
| PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk, through its subsidiaries, CUAN | 630.00 IDR | 360.72 IDR | -43% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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