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SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of SMS Co., Ltd. $4.81, price $8.76, upside -45.1%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · US

SC SMS Co., Ltd. logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

SMS Co., Ltd.

SMSSY · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $4.81 · Strongly overvalued (−45%)
✓Quality 65/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +12.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -22.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (8/11)
!Narrow moat 28/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$11.23 $4.13 Fair Value $4.81 May 2023 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

41‑month range $4.13 – $11.23 · fair‑value band $3.38 – $6.78 · the $8.76 price screens above the $4.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

SMS Co., Ltd. provides information infrastructure for the nursing care, medical care, career, healthcare, and elderly care field business areas in Japan and internationally.

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SMS Co., Ltd. provides information infrastructure for the nursing care, medical care, career, healthcare, and elderly care field business areas in Japan and internationally. It operates an online community site for professionals or families engaged in nursing care; a certification course information portal; and a housing information portal for seniors, as well as a home-delivered meal search site. The company also develops medical, health and productivity management support, and global HCP supply platform. In addition, it provides recruiting agent services, as well as recruiting ads services for professionals and operators in nursing and medical care fields. Further, the company offers medical-related services. SMS Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.

Stock analysis

SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY) currently trades at $8.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.81, implying the stock looks roughly 82.1% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $4.38 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $8.76 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.6124, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $3.38 (bear) to $6.78 (bull), the price of $8.76 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

SMS Co., Ltd. reported revenue of ¥64.7B in FY2026 versus ¥38.9B in FY2022, a compound +13.6%/yr. Reported net income was −¥14.3B in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap $1.3B · EPS (TTM) $−0.5400 · Net margin −22.1% · Return on equity −38.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.0% · Operating margin 16.6% · Revenue (TTM) $64.7B · Revenue growth (YoY) +8.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 102% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −45%, SMSSY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.38 Fair Value $4.81 Bull $6.78
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $2.25 $3.47 $5.35 79
Growth DCF $2.22 $3.29 $4.83 78
5Y EBITDA Exit $3.46 $6.09 $9.43 74
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $2.25 $3.47 $5.35 79
5Y Revenue Exit $2.41 $3.92 $5.97 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $3.46 $6.09 $9.43 74
10Y Revenue Exit $2.26 $3.59 $5.64 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $2.96 $5.05 $8.29 66
Earnings-Based
EPV $1.90 $2.10 $2.27 71
Multiples
EV/EBIT $3.39 $4.38 $5.37 66
EV/EBITDA $4.53 $5.90 $7.26 67
EV/Revenue $2.55 $3.45 $4.36 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.4570 $0.6124 $0.9140 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $2.22 $3.29 $4.83 78
Rev-Margin DCF $2.41 $3.88 $5.78 72
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $2.04 $2.44 $2.88 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 47
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 43
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 86
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 93
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 19
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 93
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 99
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
15.2% (2021) → 10.5% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

SMSSY screens 82% overvalued. Compare with Veeva Systems Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Health Information Services · 133 stocks

Beats the industry median on 8/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −44% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets 7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) −22% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.04× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Health Information Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.05× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.02× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 0.3× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)41 · sector 36
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 7
HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 46

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Health Information Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Veeva Systems Inc VEEV $260.91 $287.00 +10%
Pro Medicus Limited PME A$161.31 A$64.50 −60%
BrightSpring Health Services, Inc BTSG $56.55 $26.07 −54%
HealthEquity, Inc HQY $91.75 $100.93 +10%
Hinge Health, Inc HNGE $94.15 $51.66 −45%
10x Genomics, Inc TXG $80.70 $21.71 −73%
Waystar Holding WAY $25.63 $28.19 +10%
Doximity, Inc DOCS $26.51 $31.41 +18%
Privia Health Group PRVA $19.46 $5.26 −73%
Inventurus Knowledge Solutions Limited IKS ₹1,869 ₹2,056 +10%

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SMS Co., Ltd. · Fair Value
$4.81 −82%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SMS Co., Ltd. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SMSSY

Frequently asked questions

Is SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.81 versus a price of $8.76, about −45% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SMSSY?
Our model-based fair value for SMS Co., Ltd. is $4.81 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.76.
What is the quality score of SMSSY?
SMS Co., Ltd. has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.81 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.38, optimistic scenario $6.78. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SMS Co., Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.81, about −45% upside versus a price of $8.76 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.38, optimistic scenario $6.78. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
SMS Co., Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $64.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SMS Co., Ltd. it is $4.81 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $8.76. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SMS Co., Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SMSSY trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.76, fair value $4.81, a gap of about −45% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMSSY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.81). For SMS Co., Ltd. the two are $3.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SMS Co., Ltd. worth?
The market values SMS Co., Ltd. at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $8.76; our models calculate a fair value of $4.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMSSY?
Our models span a range for SMS Co., Ltd.: cautious scenario $3.38, base $4.81, optimistic $6.78 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $8.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
Balance-sheet figures for SMS Co., Ltd. (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −38.7%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMSSY from its 52-week high?
SMS Co., Ltd. trades at $8.76, about 1% below its 52-week high of $8.85 and 102% above the low of $4.33 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SMS Co., Ltd.?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Veeva Systems Inc, Pro Medicus Limited, BrightSpring Health Services, Inc, HealthEquity, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SMS Co., Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $8.76, calculated fair value $4.81 (−45%), Quality Score 65/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMSSY calculated?
We run SMS Co., Ltd. through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. SMS Co., Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $8.76. Our model-based fair value is $4.81, about −45% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SMS Co., Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.78). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($3.38 to $6.78) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of SMS Co., Ltd.

How large is the market capitalisation of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
The market capitalisation of SMS Co., Ltd. is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
Earnings per share at SMS Co., Ltd. are $−0.5400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
The net margin of SMS Co., Ltd. is −22.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SMS Co., Ltd. is −38.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SMS Co., Ltd. is 11.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
The operating margin of SMS Co., Ltd. is 16.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
Revenue at SMS Co., Ltd. is growing +8.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
Earnings per share at SMS Co., Ltd. are growing +115% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY) generate?
The free cash flow of SMS Co., Ltd. is $4.9B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY) carry?
The net debt of SMS Co., Ltd. is $2.6B (fiscal year 2021, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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