SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of SMS Co., Ltd. stock $4.84, price $8.03, that is 39.8% below the price, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
42‑month range $4.13 – $11.23 · fair‑value band $3.39 – $6.81 · the $8.03 price screens above the $4.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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SMS Co., Ltd. provides information infrastructure for the nursing care, medical care, career, healthcare, and elderly care field business areas in Japan and internationally.
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It operates an online community site for professionals or families engaged in nursing care; a certification course information portal; and a housing information portal for seniors, as well as a home-delivered meal search site.
The company also develops medical, health and productivity management support, and global HCP supply platform. In addition, it provides recruiting agent services, as well as recruiting ads services for professionals and operators in nursing and medical care fields.
Further, the company offers medical-related services. SMS Co., Ltd. was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY) currently trades at $8.03, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.84, 40% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $4.34 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $8.03 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.20, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $3.39 (bear) to $6.81 (bull), the price of $8.03 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
SMS Co., Ltd. reported revenue of ¥64.7B in FY2026 versus ¥38.9B in FY2022, a compound +13.6%/yr. Reported net income was −¥14.3B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $1.6B Small · P/S ratio 0.02 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5800 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin −22.1% · Return on equity −40.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 21.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 23 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 86% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 3% fair-value upside, at −40%, SMSSY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$3.39Fair Value $4.84Bull$6.81
Price $8.03 · Downside -39.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF$2.35$3.50$5.1880
Growth DCF$2.31$3.30$4.6579
5Y EBITDA Exit$3.75$6.57$10.1574
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$2.35$3.50$5.1880
5Y Revenue Exit$2.62$4.24$6.4472
5Y EBITDA Exit$3.75$6.57$10.1574
10Y Revenue Exit$2.41$3.78$5.8866
10Y EBITDA Exit$3.13$5.27$8.5967
Earnings-Based
EPV$2.01$2.20$2.3571
Multiples
EV/EBIT$3.23$4.34$5.4566
EV/EBITDA$4.51$6.05$7.5867
EV/Revenue$2.28$3.30$4.3253
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$0.3100$0.4800$0.590055
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$2.31$3.30$4.6579
Rev-Margin DCF$2.62$4.20$6.2472
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder$2.15$2.52$2.9272
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a year distorted by one-off effects.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
14.0% (2020) → 10.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+15.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +12.7% a year for the price and +6.0% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Health Information Services · 117 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside−39.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets−27.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−21.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)21.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Health Information Services median · lower = cheaper
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Is SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.84 versus the last price from Oct 21, 2026 of $8.03, about 40% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SMSSY?
Our model-based fair value for SMS Co., Ltd. is $4.84 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Oct 21, 2026): $8.03.
What is the quality score of SMSSY?
SMS Co., Ltd. has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.84 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.39, optimistic scenario $6.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SMS Co., Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.84, about 40% lower versus the last price from Oct 21, 2026 of $8.03 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.39, optimistic scenario $6.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
SMS Co., Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥66.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does SMS Co., Ltd. pay a dividend?
SMS Co., Ltd. currently shows a dividend yield of 1.13% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
SMS Co., Ltd. has a dividend yield of 1.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Mar 31, 2026. Free cash flow covers the dividend 2.07 times. Our assessment: Cash covered. The dividend is fully funded by free cash flow. The payout ratio on earnings is not available for this company.
What growth is priced into SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SMS Co., Ltd. would have to grow free cash flow by +15.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.5 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SMSSY use?
Our models discount SMS Co., Ltd. at 12.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.30, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SMS Co., Ltd. that is +15.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SMS Co., Ltd. grew +12.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +15.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SMS Co., Ltd. (+15.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.69 %: that much free cash flow SMS Co., Ltd. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SMS Co., Ltd. it is $4.84 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $8.03. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is SMS Co., Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, SMSSY trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.03, fair value $4.84, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMSSY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.03); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.84). For SMS Co., Ltd. the two are $3.20 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SMS Co., Ltd. worth?
The market values SMS Co., Ltd. at about $1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $8.03; our models calculate a fair value of $4.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMSSY?
Our models span a range for SMS Co., Ltd.: cautious scenario $3.39, base $4.84, optimistic $6.81 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $8.03). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
Balance-sheet figures for SMS Co., Ltd. (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −40.3%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMSSY from its 52-week high?
SMS Co., Ltd. trades at $8.03, about 9% below its 52-week high of $8.85 and 86% above the low of $4.33 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SMS Co., Ltd.?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Veeva Systems Inc, Pro Medicus Limited, BrightSpring Health Services, Inc, Hinge Health, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SMS Co., Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $8.03, calculated fair value $4.84 (−40%), Quality Score 63/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMSSY calculated?
We run SMS Co., Ltd. through 13 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $4.84 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. SMS Co., Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
The latest price we hold is from Oct 21, 2026 and stands at $8.03. Our model-based fair value is $4.84, about 40% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SMS Co., Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($6.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($3.39 to $6.81) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of SMS Co., Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
The market capitalisation of SMS Co., Ltd. is $1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SMS Co., Ltd. is 0.02 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
Earnings per share at SMS Co., Ltd. are $−0.5800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
The dividend yield of SMS Co., Ltd. is 1.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
The net margin of SMS Co., Ltd. is −22.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SMS Co., Ltd. is −40.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SMS Co., Ltd. is 11.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
The operating margin of SMS Co., Ltd. is 21.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
Revenue at SMS Co., Ltd. is growing +8.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY)?
Earnings per share at SMS Co., Ltd. are growing −3.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SMS Co., Ltd. (SMSSY) carry?
The net debt of SMS Co., Ltd. is ¥2.6B (fiscal year 2021, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026