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Shui On Land Ltd (SOLLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Shui On Land Ltd $2.10, price $3.10, upside -32.3%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Real Estate · US · ADR · Home Hong Kong · ISIN US8255601051

SO Shui On Land Ltd logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

Shui On Land Ltd

SOLLY · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $2.10 · Overvalued (−32.3%)
!Quality 46/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY −51.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -43.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/11)
!Narrow moat 27/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 7 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$11.38 $2.73 Fair Value $2.10 Jan 2018 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.73 – $11.38 · fair‑value band $1.94 – $2.16 · the $3.10 price screens above the $2.10 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Shui On Land Limited, an investment holding company, develops and sells properties in the People's Republic of China. It operates through four segments: Property Development, Property Investment, Property Management, and Construction. The company develops and sells residential and commercial properties; and leases offices and commercial/mall properties.

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Shui On Land Limited, an investment holding company, develops and sells properties in the People's Republic of China. It operates through four segments: Property Development, Property Investment, Property Management, and Construction. The company develops and sells residential and commercial properties; and leases offices and commercial/mall properties. It also provides property management services; construction, interior fitting-out, renovation, and maintenance services for building premises; debt financing and management services; and asset management. Shui On Land Limited was incorporated in 2004 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

Stock analysis

Shui On Land Ltd ADR (SOLLY) currently trades at $3.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.10, 32.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 15 models at a data quality of 92/100, which puts the evidence level at medium.

Scenario range: $1.94 (bear) to $2.16 (bull), the price of $3.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.

Shui On Land Ltd ADR reported revenue of 4.0B CNY in FY2025 versus 17.6B CNY in FY2021, a compound −31.0%/yr. Reported net income was −1.7B CNY in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $486M · P/S ratio 0.12 · EPS (TTM) $−1.64 · Net margin −43.5% · Return on equity −4.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0% · Operating margin 12.2% · Revenue (TTM) 4.1B CNY.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −32%, SOLLY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.94 Fair Value $2.10 Bull $2.16
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF n/a n/a $0.1500 77
5Y EBITDA Exit n/a n/a $2.13 72
Gordon GGM $1.94 $2.09 $2.32 69
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF n/a n/a $0.1500 77
5Y EBITDA Exit n/a n/a $2.13 72
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $1.94 $2.09 $2.32 69
DDM Multi-Stage $1.94 $2.31 $2.79 67
Multiples
EV/EBIT n/a $0.2000 >$0.8000 61
EV/EBITDA n/a n/a $1.00 62
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $17.01 $22.79 $34.01 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28

Profitability 4
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 11
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 63
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 32
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 55
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 20
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 10
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 90
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
41.7% (2019) → 47.9% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

SOLLY screens overvalued: fair value 32% below the price. Compare with Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 570 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 47 · Above median
Fair Value upside −19.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets 0.9% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) −43.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 12.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −66.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.73× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/S (TTM) 0.12× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 1.3× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 19.8× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)7 · sector 69
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 12
HEALTH (low debt)64 · sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 59

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 0016 HK$107.10 HK$155.14 +45%
China Resources Land Limited 1109 HK$28.64 HK$71.60 +150%
CK Asset Holdings 1113 HK$45.90 HK$71.49 +56%
Hongkong Land Holdings H78 $8.57 $1.52 −82%
DLF Limited DLF ₹658.40 ₹167.48 −75%
China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 HK$12.42 HK$22.33 +80%
Lodha Developers Limited LODHA ₹1,165 ₹274.14 −76%
Poly Developments and Holdings 600048 ¥5.77 ¥5.87 +2%
China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings 001979 ¥7.18 ¥6.04 −16%
The Wharf (Holdings) Limited 0004 HK$19.39 HK$8.31 −57%

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Shui On Land Ltd ADR · Fair Value
$2.10 −32%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shui On Land Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SOLLY

Frequently asked questions

Is Shui On Land Ltd (SOLLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.10 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $3.10, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SOLLY?
Our model-based fair value for Shui On Land Ltd ADR is $2.10 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $3.10.
What is the quality score of SOLLY?
Shui On Land Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shui On Land Ltd (SOLLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.10 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.94, optimistic scenario $2.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shui On Land Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.10, about −32% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $3.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.94, optimistic scenario $2.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shui On Land Ltd (SOLLY)?
Shui On Land Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.1B CNY (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shui On Land Ltd (SOLLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shui On Land Ltd ADR it is $2.10 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $3.10. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shui On Land Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SOLLY trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.10, fair value $2.10, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SOLLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.10). For Shui On Land Ltd ADR the two are $1.00 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shui On Land Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Shui On Land Ltd ADR at about $486M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $3.10; our models calculate a fair value of $2.10 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SOLLY?
Our models span a range for Shui On Land Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $1.94, base $2.10, optimistic $2.16 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $3.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shui On Land Ltd (SOLLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shui On Land Ltd ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −4.3%, debt of 0.73 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SOLLY from its 52-week high?
Shui On Land Ltd ADR trades at $3.10, about 35% below its 52-week high of $4.75 and 14% above the low of $2.73 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.10 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shui On Land Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, Hongkong Land Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shui On Land Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $3.10, calculated fair value $2.10 (−32%), Quality Score 46/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SOLLY calculated?
We run Shui On Land Ltd ADR through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.10, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Shui On Land Ltd ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shui On Land Ltd (SOLLY)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $3.10. Our model-based fair value is $2.10, about −32% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shui On Land Ltd ADR right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The models converge in a tight band ($1.94 to $2.16), unusually little disagreement for a valuation. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.

Key figures of Shui On Land Ltd ADR

How large is the market capitalisation of Shui On Land Ltd (SOLLY)?
The market capitalisation of Shui On Land Ltd ADR is $486M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shui On Land Ltd (SOLLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shui On Land Ltd ADR is 0.12 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shui On Land Ltd (SOLLY)?
Earnings per share at Shui On Land Ltd ADR are $−1.64. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Shui On Land Ltd (SOLLY)?
The net margin of Shui On Land Ltd ADR is −43.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shui On Land Ltd (SOLLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shui On Land Ltd ADR is −4.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shui On Land Ltd (SOLLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shui On Land Ltd ADR is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shui On Land Ltd (SOLLY)?
The operating margin of Shui On Land Ltd ADR is 12.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shui On Land Ltd (SOLLY)?
Revenue at Shui On Land Ltd ADR is growing −66.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −36.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shui On Land Ltd (SOLLY)?
Earnings per share at Shui On Land Ltd ADR are growing −29.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shui On Land Ltd (SOLLY) generate?
The free cash flow of Shui On Land Ltd ADR is 382M CNY (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Shui On Land Ltd (SOLLY) carry?
The net debt of Shui On Land Ltd ADR is 31.3B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 82.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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