The Wharf (Holdings) Limited (0004) Fair Value & Analysis
Real Estate · HK · Market cap HK$55.3B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +8.5% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$14.92 – HK$30.28 · fair‑value band HK$14.36 – HK$25.43 · the HK$20.50 price screens above the HK$19.88 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
The Wharf (Holdings) Limited (0004) currently trades at HK$20.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$19.88, implying the stock looks roughly 3.0% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, The Wharf (Holdings) Limited generated revenue of HK$11.0B at a net margin of 0.5%. Revenue grew 4.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 0.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$2.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$14.36 (bear case) to HK$25.43 (bull case); at HK$20.50, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 15% fair-value upside, at -3%, 0004 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$32.16) versus Dividend Discount (HK$4.02). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 36
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The Wharf (Holdings) Limited was the 17th company registered in Hong Kong and is currently the 7th with the longest history. Wharf is also one of the 30 constituent stocks in the original Hang Seng Index from the 1960s. The Group upholds a long-standing mission of (Building for Tomorrow).
Full company description
The Wharf (Holdings) Limited was the 17th company registered in Hong Kong and is currently the 7th with the longest history. Wharf is also one of the 30 constituent stocks in the original Hang Seng Index from the 1960s. The Group upholds a long-standing mission of (Building for Tomorrow). With a proven track record in management and execution, the Group's businesses comprise Investment Properties, Development Properties and Hotels in Hong Kong and Mainland China. Other businesses include Logistics Infrastructure through Modern Terminals and Hong Kong Air Cargo Terminals. In Hong Kong, the Group's exclusive Peak Portfolio, comprising a rare collection of unique properties, features the highest bespoke quality and craftsmanship catering to the demands of a privileged and discerning clientele. As at the end of 2024, the Group's attributable land bank in Hong Kong was about 2.8 million square feet, of which about 550,000 square feet on The Peak. The Group's Mainland China Investment Properties are led by the International Finance Squares (IFS) at the very heart of CBD in select cities. IFS developments in Chengdu and Changsha have become trendsetting landmarks with unrivalled location, superior planning and design, retailer and shopper critical mass and top-notch management. The Mainland China Development Properties land bank further depleted to 1.2 million square meters at the end of 2024. The bulk of unsold stocks are commercial properties in grossly over-supplied markets. Wharf Hotels operates 16 hotels across Hong Kong, Mainland China and the Philippines under three brands " Niccolo, Marco Polo and Maqo. The Group wholly owns four of these properties and holds 50% stake in another. In June 2024, a third hotel owned by the Group at Changsha IFS opened under a park Hyatt flag. The Group also owns and operates Modern Terminals, which operates container terminals in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, and is a founding partner in Hong Kong Air Cargo Terminals. Both have been key components for Hong Kong's success as an internati
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The Wharf (Holdings) Limited reported revenue of HK$11.0B in FY2025 versus HK$22.4B in FY2021, a compound −16.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$50.0M in FY2025, compounding −69.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −10.8 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.1 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Real Estate - Development · 593 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹661.75 | ₹146.13 | -78% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,209 | ₹583.43 | -52% |
| PT Pantai Indah Kapuk Dua Tbk, PANI | 6,150 IDR | 1,330 IDR | -78% |
| PT Jaya Real Property, Tbk., JRPT | 1,080 IDR | 1,674 IDR | +55% |
| PT Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk, BSDE | 595.00 IDR | 1,488 IDR | +150% |
| PT Sentul City Tbk, BKSL | 73.00 IDR | 84.16 IDR | +15% |
| PT Ciputra Development Tbk, CTRA | 610.00 IDR | 1,525 IDR | +150% |
| Khang Dien House Trading and Investment Joint Stock Company KDH | 18,150 VND | 20,338 VND | +12% |
| PT Duta Pertiwi Tbk DUTI | 4,300 IDR | 6,239 IDR | +45% |
| PT Puradelta Lestari Tbk DMAS | 147.00 IDR | 164.33 IDR | +12% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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