Wharf Holdings (0004) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Wharf Holdings HK$8.31, price HK$19.26, upside -56.9%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
- Add to watchlist
Wharf Holdings
0004 · HKStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$14.92 – HK$30.28 · fair‑value band HK$6.03 – HK$11.89 · the HK$19.26 price screens above the HK$8.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
Every Wednesday you see whether Wharf is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Company profile
The Wharf (Holdings) Limited was the 17th company registered in Hong Kong and is currently the 7th with the longest history. Wharf is also one of the 30 constituent stocks in the original Hang Seng Index from the 1960s. The Group upholds a long-standing mission of (Building for Tomorrow).
Show more
The Wharf (Holdings) Limited was the 17th company registered in Hong Kong and is currently the 7th with the longest history. Wharf is also one of the 30 constituent stocks in the original Hang Seng Index from the 1960s. The Group upholds a long-standing mission of (Building for Tomorrow). With a proven track record in management and execution, the Group's businesses comprise Investment Properties, Development Properties and Hotels in Hong Kong and Mainland China. Other businesses include Logistics Infrastructure through Modern Terminals and Hong Kong Air Cargo Terminals. In Hong Kong, the Group's exclusive Peak Portfolio, comprising a rare collection of unique properties, features the highest bespoke quality and craftsmanship catering to the demands of a privileged and discerning clientele. As at the end of 2024, the Group's attributable land bank in Hong Kong was about 2.8 million square feet, of which about 550,000 square feet on The Peak. The Group's Mainland China Investment Properties are led by the International Finance Squares (IFS) at the very heart of CBD in select cities. IFS developments in Chengdu and Changsha have become trendsetting landmarks with unrivalled location, superior planning and design, retailer and shopper critical mass and top-notch management. The Mainland China Development Properties land bank further depleted to 1.2 million square meters at the end of 2024. The bulk of unsold stocks are commercial properties in grossly over-supplied markets. Wharf Hotels operates 16 hotels across Hong Kong, Mainland China and the Philippines under three brands " Niccolo, Marco Polo and Maqo. The Group wholly owns four of these properties and holds 50% stake in another. In June 2024, a third hotel owned by the Group at Changsha IFS opened under a park Hyatt flag. The Group also owns and operates Modern Terminals, which operates container terminals in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, and is a founding partner in Hong Kong Air Cargo Terminals. Both have been key components for Hong Kong's success as an internati
Stock analysis
Wharf Holdings (0004) currently trades at HK$19.26, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$8.31, 56.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$32.16 per share, and 2 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$19.26 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$1.61, and 14 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: HK$6.03 (bear) to HK$11.89 (bull), the price of HK$19.26 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Wharf Holdings reported revenue of HK$11.0B in FY2025 versus HK$22.4B in FY2021, a compound −16.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$50.0M in FY2025, compounding −69.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap HK$58.9B (≈ $7.5B) · P/E ratio 905.0 · P/S ratio 4.11 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity −0.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0% · Operating margin 44.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −57%, 0004 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
All 16 models by family
Notify me when 0004 reaches fair value
Put 0004 on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Forecast
Compare Wharf Holdings with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 575 stocks
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Real Estate sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Real Estate
- Undervalued stocks: Hong Kong Stocks
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Real Estate - Development stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited 0016 | HK$107.10 | HK$155.14 | +45% |
| CK Asset Holdings 1113 | HK$46.00 | HK$71.49 | +55% |
| Hongkong Land Holdings H78 | $8.57 | $1.52 | −82% |
| DLF Limited DLF | ₹683.00 | ₹167.48 | −75% |
| China Overseas Land & Investment Limited 0688 | HK$12.42 | HK$22.33 | +80% |
| Lodha Developers Limited LODHA | ₹1,165 | ₹274.14 | −76% |
| Poly Developments and Holdings 600048 | ¥5.56 | ¥5.87 | +6% |
| China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings 001979 | ¥7.18 | ¥6.04 | −16% |
| CTP N.V CTPNV | €12.90 | €10.46 | −19% |
| Oberoi Realty Limited OBEROIRLTY | ₹1,859 | ₹548.00 | −71% |
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Real Estate stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is Wharf Holdings (0004) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of 0004?
What is the quality score of 0004?
What is the price target for Wharf Holdings (0004)?
What is the Wharf Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
What is the revenue of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
Does Wharf Holdings pay a dividend?
What growth is priced into Wharf Holdings (0004)?
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0004 use?
What is a reverse DCF?
How much growth has Wharf Holdings (0004) delivered so far?
How fast is the sector of Wharf Holdings (0004) growing?
What is the free cash flow yield of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
What is the intrinsic value of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
Is Wharf Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0004?
How much is Wharf Holdings worth?
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0004?
What is the PEG ratio of 0004?
How solid is the balance sheet of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
How far is 0004 from its 52-week high?
Which stocks are comparable to Wharf Holdings?
Is Wharf Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
How is the fair value of 0004 calculated?
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
What is the share price of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
What should I pay attention to with Wharf Holdings right now?
Where does the earnings growth of Wharf Holdings (0004) come from?
Key figures of Wharf Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
What is the P/E ratio of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
What is the P/S ratio of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
What is the dividend yield of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
What is the net margin of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
What is the return on equity of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
What is the EBIT return on assets of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
What is the operating margin of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
How fast is revenue growing at Wharf Holdings (0004)?
How fast are earnings growing at Wharf Holdings (0004)?
How much net cash does Wharf Holdings (0004) hold?
Watch Wharf Holdings in the live analysis
One click puts Wharf Holdings on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.