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Wharf Holdings (0004) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 13, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Wharf Holdings stock HK$19.87, price HK$20.76, that is 4.3% below the price, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 16 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Real Estate HK · ISIN HK0004000045

WH Wharf Holdings logo Some data Nov 12, 2026

Wharf Holdings

0004 · HK

Solid company, but the stock is already about fairly priced and price moving sideways: meets 1 of 3 rules.

Get notified free when this changes
Quality 67/100 
Low debt 
Generates free cash flow 
1.9% dividend yield · Sustainable
Fair value HK$19.87 · Fairly valued 
Price moving sideways (no uptrend) 
Loss over the last twelve months · -4.1% net margin (TTM) · fiscal year 2025 0.5% 
Some data 
Changed on Nov 13: HK$8.35 → HK$19.87 
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −12.1 %/yr in HKD) 
Trails peers (5/14) 
Narrow moat 34/100

Main risks:

🚩Concentration in two China IFS malls🚩E-commerce and geopolitics pressuring retail
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What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

HK$30.28 HK$14.92 Fair Value HK$19.87 Jul 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 12, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$14.92 – HK$30.28 · fair‑value band HK$14.95 – HK$28.30 · the HK$20.76 price screens above the HK$19.87 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 12, 2026.

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Company profile

The Wharf (Holdings) Limited was the 17th company registered in Hong Kong and is currently the 7th with the longest history. Wharf is also one of the 30 constituent stocks in the original Hang Seng Index from the 1960s. The Group upholds a long-standing mission of (Building for Tomorrow).

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With a proven track record in management and execution, the Group's businesses comprise Investment Properties, Development Properties and Hotels in Hong Kong and Mainland China. Other businesses include Logistics Infrastructure through Modern Terminals and Hong Kong Air Cargo Terminals.

In Hong Kong, the Group's exclusive Peak Portfolio, comprising a rare collection of unique properties, features the highest bespoke quality and craftsmanship catering to the demands of a privileged and discerning clientele.

As at the end of 2024, the Group's attributable land bank in Hong Kong was about 2.8 million square feet, of which about 550,000 square feet on The Peak. The Group's Mainland China Investment Properties are led by the International Finance Squares (IFS) at the very heart of CBD in select cities.

IFS developments in Chengdu and Changsha have become trendsetting landmarks with unrivalled location, superior planning and design, retailer and shopper critical mass and top-notch management.

The Mainland China Development Properties land bank further depleted to 1.2 million square meters at the end of 2024. The bulk of unsold stocks are commercial properties in grossly over-supplied markets.

Wharf Hotels operates 16 hotels across Hong Kong, Mainland China and the Philippines under three brands " Niccolo, Marco Polo and Maqo. The Group wholly owns four of these properties and holds 50% stake in another.

In June 2024, a third hotel owned by the Group at Changsha IFS opened under a park Hyatt flag. The Group also owns and operates Modern Terminals, which operates container terminals in Hong Kong and Shenzhen, and is a founding partner in Hong Kong Air Cargo Terminals.

Both have been key components for Hong Kong's success as an internati

Stock analysis

Wharf Holdings (0004) currently trades at HK$20.76, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$19.87, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 4.5%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$32.03 per share, and 7 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$20.76 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at HK$4.32, and 9 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: HK$14.95 (bear) to HK$28.30 (bull), the price of HK$20.76 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Wharf Holdings reported revenue of HK$11.0B in FY2025 versus HK$22.4B in FY2021, a compound −16.3%/yr. Reported net income was HK$50.0M in FY2025, compounding −69.8%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap HK$63.4B (≈ $8.1B) Mid · P/S ratio 5.67 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 0.5% · Return on equity −0.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.0% (5-year average) · Operating margin 44.1% · Revenue (TTM) HK$10.7B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 34 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 41% fair-value upside, at −4%, 0004 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear HK$14.95 Fair Value HK$19.87 Bull HK$28.30
Price HK$20.76 · Downside -4.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF HK$14.35 HK$19.42 HK$28.82 80
Growth DCF HK$14.95 HK$19.87 HK$28.30 79
Residual Income HK$28.00 HK$29.74 HK$32.08 76
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$14.35 HK$19.42 HK$28.82 80
5Y Revenue Exit HK$13.93 HK$19.78 HK$28.28 73
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$17.80 HK$26.47 HK$37.95 75
10Y Revenue Exit HK$13.64 HK$18.02 HK$22.72 68
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$16.34 HK$22.16 HK$28.40 69
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$3.67 HK$4.02 HK$4.55 69
DDM Multi-Stage HK$3.67 HK$4.61 HK$5.92 67
Multiples
P/S Multiple HK$0.2100 HK$0.2800 HK$0.3500 58
P/B Multiple HK$16.60 HK$22.13 HK$27.66 55
EV/EBIT HK$24.85 HK$32.91 HK$40.98 66
EV/EBITDA HK$22.29 HK$29.50 HK$36.72 67
EV/Revenue HK$13.99 HK$19.71 HK$25.43 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$23.91 HK$32.03 HK$47.81 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$14.95 HK$19.87 HK$28.30 79
Rev-Margin DCF HK$13.93 HK$20.08 HK$27.61 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$28.00 HK$29.74 HK$32.08 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 67/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 11
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 100
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 80
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 100
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 77
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 27
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 28
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −12.3% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−56.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−58.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−58.1% vs −45.5%, slowing
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 10.9%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.3% a year for the price and +6.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+14.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+8.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+7.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+6.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.8%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate - Development · 491 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −4.3% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −4.1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 44.1% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −5.7% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.11× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate - Development median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.43× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 5.95× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 16.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 10.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.65× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)28 · sector 69
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)95 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)39 · sector 62

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Wharf Holdings: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Wharf Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0004

Frequently asked questions

Is Wharf Holdings (0004) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$19.87 versus a price of HK$20.76, about 4% lower (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0004?
Our model-based fair value for Wharf Holdings is HK$19.87 (as of Nov 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$20.76.
What is the quality score of 0004?
Wharf Holdings has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Wharf Holdings (0004)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of HK$19.87 (as of Nov 12, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario HK$14.95, optimistic scenario HK$28.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Wharf Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at HK$19.87, about 4% lower versus a price of HK$20.76 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario HK$14.95, optimistic scenario HK$28.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
Wharf Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$10.7B (latest available figure, as of Nov 12, 2026).
Does Wharf Holdings pay a dividend?
Wharf Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of 1.93% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 12, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Wharf Holdings (0004) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Wharf Holdings pays a dividend of HK$0.4 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.9%. The last ex-dividend date was Aug 28, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 1990. Free cash flow covers the dividend 3.18 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Wharf Holdings (0004)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Wharf Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by 3.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue fell 12.1 % per year. As of Nov 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 0004 use?
Our models discount Wharf Holdings at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.27, country premium for Hong Kong. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Wharf Holdings that is +3.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Wharf Holdings (0004) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Wharf Holdings shrank 12.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +3.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Wharf Holdings (0004) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Wharf Holdings (+3.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.13 %: that much free cash flow Wharf Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Wharf Holdings it is HK$19.87 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026), against a price of HK$20.76. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Wharf Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 12, 2026, 0004 trades above its calculated fair value: price HK$20.76, fair value HK$19.87, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 0004?
No. The price is what the market pays today (HK$20.76); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (HK$19.87). For Wharf Holdings the two are HK$0.8900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Wharf Holdings worth?
The market values Wharf Holdings at about HK$63.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 12, 2026). Per share that is HK$20.76; our models calculate a fair value of HK$19.87 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 0004?
Our models span a range for Wharf Holdings: cautious scenario HK$14.95, base HK$19.87, optimistic HK$28.30 per share (as of Nov 12, 2026, price HK$20.76). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of 0004?
The PEG ratio of Wharf Holdings is 1.65 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 12, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
Balance-sheet figures for Wharf Holdings (as of Nov 12, 2026): return on equity −0.3%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 0004 from its 52-week high?
Wharf Holdings trades at HK$20.76, about 31% below its 52-week high of HK$30.28 and 15% above the low of HK$18.10 (as of Nov 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of HK$19.87 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Wharf Holdings?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Sun Hung Kai Properties Limited, China Resources Land Limited, CK Asset Holdings, DLF Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Wharf Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 12, 2026: price HK$20.76, calculated fair value HK$19.87 (−4%), Quality Score 67/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 0004 calculated?
We run Wharf Holdings through 16 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of HK$19.87 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1% above its aggregate fair value. Wharf Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
The closing price on Nov 13, 2026 was HK$20.76. Our model-based fair value is HK$19.87, about 4% lower (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Wharf Holdings right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (HK$14.95 to HK$28.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Wharf Holdings (0004) come from?
Earnings per share at Wharf Holdings fell 35.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −10.9 %, EBIT margin +0.4 %, tax rate −6.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −22.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Wharf Holdings

How large is the market capitalisation of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
The market capitalisation of Wharf Holdings is HK$63.4B (≈ $8.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Wharf Holdings is 5.67 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the dividend yield of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
The dividend yield of Wharf Holdings is 1.9%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
The net margin of Wharf Holdings is 0.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Wharf Holdings is −0.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Wharf Holdings is 3.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Wharf Holdings (0004)?
The operating margin of Wharf Holdings is 44.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Wharf Holdings (0004)?
Revenue at Wharf Holdings is down 5.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −15.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Wharf Holdings (0004)?
Earnings per share at Wharf Holdings are down 91.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Wharf Holdings (0004) hold?
Wharf Holdings holds more cash than debt, HK$2.0B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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