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South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of South Plains Financial Inc $26.65, price $43.10, upside -38.2%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · US · ISIN US83946P1075

SP South Plains Financial Inc logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

South Plains Financial Inc

SPFI · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $26.65 · Strongly overvalued (−38%)
!Quality 59/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +4.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 28.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·1.48% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
✓Wide moat 69/100
!Insider activity 40/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$45.96 $18.18 Fair Value $26.65 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $18.18 – $45.96 · fair‑value band $23.14 – $46.45 · the $43.10 price screens above the $26.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

South Plains Financial, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for City Bank that provides commercial and consumer financial services to small and medium-sized businesses and individuals. It offers deposit products, including demand deposit accounts, interest-bearing products, savings accounts, and certificate of deposits.

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South Plains Financial, Inc. operates as a bank holding company for City Bank that provides commercial and consumer financial services to small and medium-sized businesses and individuals. It offers deposit products, including demand deposit accounts, interest-bearing products, savings accounts, and certificate of deposits. The company also provides traditional trust products and services; debit and credit cards; retirement services and products, including real estate administration, family trust administration, revocable and irrevocable trusts, charitable trusts for individuals and corporations, self-directed individual retirement accounts, simplified employee pensions plans, employee stock ownership plans, defined benefit plans, and profit-sharing plans. In addition, it offers investment services, such as self-directed IRAs, money market funds, mutual funds, annuities and tax-deferred annuities, stocks and bonds, investments for non-U.S. residents, treasury bills, treasury notes and bonds, and tax-exempt municipal bonds. Further, the company provides commercial real estate loans; general and specialized commercial loans, including agricultural production and real estate, energy, finance, investment, and insurance loans, as well as loans to goods, services, restaurant and retail, construction, and other industries; residential construction loans; and 1-4 family residential loans, auto loans, and other loans for recreational vehicles or other purposes; and mortgage banking services. The company was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in Lubbock, Texas.

Stock analysis

South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI) currently trades at $43.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $26.65, implying the stock looks roughly 61.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $36.11 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $43.10 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $6.60, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $23.14 (bear) to $46.45 (bull), the price of $43.10 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

South Plains Financial Inc reported revenue of $297M in FY2025 versus $228M in FY2021, a compound +6.9%/yr. Reported net income was $58.5M in FY2025, compounding −0.1%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $732M · P/E ratio 12.1 · P/S ratio 2.38 · EPS (TTM) $3.57 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 19.7% · Return on equity 12.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at −38%, SPFI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $23.14 Fair Value $26.65 Bull $46.45
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($2.14 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $22.30 $25.04 $40.06 75
Gordon GGM $4.10 $7.39 $10.17 68
DDM Multi-Stage $4.10 $6.60 $7.89 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $4.10 $7.39 $10.17 68
DDM Multi-Stage $4.10 $6.60 $7.89 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $29.78 $39.70 $49.63 63
P/B Multiple $27.08 $36.11 $45.14 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $12.90 $17.28 $25.79 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $22.30 $25.04 $40.06 75

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 59/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 60
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 84
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 4
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 74
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 90
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 48
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 59
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 74
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 78/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+8.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 25%

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−29.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −31.4% a year for the price and 0.0% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−16.2%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+8.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)+8.0%
Projected 2029 (sales)+7.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+6.3%

SPFI screens 62% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 56 · Above median
Fair Value upside −40% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 13% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 29% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 34% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.12× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.1× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.52× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 3.53× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 10.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 9.4× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)53 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)51 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)94 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)30 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 77.80 SGD 40.48 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.65 HK$64.29 +24%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.73 €4.04 −40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹738.60 ₹418.52 −43%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €101.30 €105.99 +5%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €83.28 €77.62 −7%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.87 $6.75 −38%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,340 ₹636.31 −53%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $227.96 $159.52 −30%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.14 SGD 19.80 SGD −38%

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South Plains Financial Inc · Fair Value
$26.65 −62%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "South Plains Financial Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SPFI

Frequently asked questions

Is South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $26.65 versus a price of $43.10, about −38% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SPFI?
Our model-based fair value for South Plains Financial Inc is $26.65 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $43.10.
What is the quality score of SPFI?
South Plains Financial Inc has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $26.65 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $23.14, optimistic scenario $46.45. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the South Plains Financial Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $26.65, about −38% upside versus a price of $43.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $23.14, optimistic scenario $46.45. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI)?
South Plains Financial Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $212M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does South Plains Financial Inc pay a dividend?
South Plains Financial Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.48% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, South Plains Financial Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -29.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.7 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SPFI use?
Our models discount South Plains Financial Inc at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For South Plains Financial Inc that is -29.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at South Plains Financial Inc grew +4.7 % a year. The price currently implies -29.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into South Plains Financial Inc (-29.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.81 %: that much free cash flow South Plains Financial Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For South Plains Financial Inc it is $26.65 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $43.10. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is South Plains Financial Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SPFI trades above its calculated fair value: price $43.10, fair value $26.65, a gap of about −38% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SPFI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($43.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($26.65). For South Plains Financial Inc the two are $16.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is South Plains Financial Inc worth?
The market values South Plains Financial Inc at about $732M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $43.10; our models calculate a fair value of $26.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SPFI?
Our models span a range for South Plains Financial Inc: cautious scenario $23.14, base $26.65, optimistic $46.45 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $43.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SPFI?
South Plains Financial Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.1 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $26.65 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 9.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI)?
Balance-sheet figures for South Plains Financial Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 12.8%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SPFI from its 52-week high?
South Plains Financial Inc trades at $43.10, about 6% below its 52-week high of $45.96 and 21% above the low of $35.64 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $26.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to South Plains Financial Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is South Plains Financial Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $43.10, calculated fair value $26.65 (−38%), Quality Score 59/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SPFI calculated?
We run South Plains Financial Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $26.65, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. South Plains Financial Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $43.10. Our model-based fair value is $26.65, about −38% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with South Plains Financial Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($23.14 to $46.45) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of South Plains Financial Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI)?
The market capitalisation of South Plains Financial Inc is $732M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of South Plains Financial Inc is 2.38 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI)?
Earnings per share at South Plains Financial Inc are $3.57 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI)?
The dividend yield of South Plains Financial Inc is 1.5% (payout 17.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI)?
The net margin of South Plains Financial Inc is 19.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of South Plains Financial Inc is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of South Plains Financial Inc is 1.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI)?
The operating margin of South Plains Financial Inc is 34.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI)?
Revenue at South Plains Financial Inc is growing +10.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI)?
Earnings per share at South Plains Financial Inc are growing +18.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does South Plains Financial Inc (SPFI) carry?
The net debt of South Plains Financial Inc is $2.2M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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