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SPIE SA (SPIWF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of SPIE SA $40.35, price $49.30, upside -18.2%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
SPIE SA
SPIWF · USOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value $40.35 · Overvalued (−18.2%)
!Quality 58/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +8.6 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.2% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Narrow moat 37/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
20‑month range $29.72 – $61.47 · fair‑value band $25.49 – $55.20 · the $49.30 price screens above the $40.35 fair value. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
SPIE SA provides multi-technical services in the areas of energy and communications in France, Germany, the Netherlands, and internationally. It operates through five segments: France, Germany, North-Western Europe, Central Europe, and Global Services Energy.
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SPIE SA provides multi-technical services in the areas of energy and communications in France, Germany, the Netherlands, and internationally. It operates through five segments: France, Germany, North-Western Europe, Central Europe, and Global Services Energy. The company provides design, ICT consultancy and engineering, installation, maintenance and maintenance durability, technical facility management, and managed services. It also offers E-Mobility, smart packing, barriers, smart FM 360, energy efficiency, modernization, maintid, fabloop, IoT and data management, control room, ergonomie, and cybersecurity products. SPIE SA was founded in 1900 and is headquartered in Cergy-Pontoise, France.
Stock analysis
SPIE SA (SPIWF) currently trades at $49.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $40.35, 18.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $68.94 per share, and 11 of the 24 models we run sit above the $49.30 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $9.61, and 13 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $25.49 (bear) to $55.20 (bull), the price of $49.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
SPIE SA reported revenue of €10.4B in FY2025 versus €7.0B in FY2021, a compound +10.4%/yr. Reported net income was €176M in FY2025, compounding +1.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $9.3B · P/E ratio 41.4 · P/S ratio 0.70 · EPS (TTM) $1.19 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 1.7% · Return on equity 8.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at −18%, SPIWF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $25.49
Fair Value $40.35
Bull $55.20
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0832 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$61.06
$101.90
$164.52
79
Growth DCF
$61.46
$100.82
$160.16
77
Residual Income
$11.86
$12.65
$14.22
76
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$61.06
$101.90
$164.52
79
Owner Earnings
$42.19
$71.65
$116.82
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$38.79
$62.36
$92.24
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$56.16
$95.95
$143.16
74
5Y P/E Exit
$27.95
$41.39
$55.22
71
10Y Revenue Exit
$45.25
$68.94
$100.90
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$57.27
$92.16
$140.10
67
10Y P/E Exit
$39.45
$54.45
$72.41
64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$7.99
$29.03
$39.17
64
Lynch FV
$6.90
$9.85
$12.81
61
PEG = 1.0
$6.90
$9.85
$12.81
57
EPV
$24.49
$29.41
$33.65
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$18.52
$24.69
$30.86
63
P/S Multiple
$14.99
$19.98
$24.98
58
P/B Multiple
$14.99
$19.98
$24.98
55
EV/EBIT
$41.89
$58.07
$74.26
66
EV/EBITDA
$60.29
$82.60
$104.92
67
EV/Revenue
$27.99
$42.84
$57.69
53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$7.17
$9.61
$14.34
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$61.46
$100.82
$160.16
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$38.79
$62.80
$91.81
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$11.86
$12.65
$14.22
76
ROIC Compounder
$27.00
$36.76
$48.99
71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$13.04
$18.62
$24.21
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
58/100
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Profitability
52
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
69
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
34
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
39
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
33
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
72
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.6%
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+2.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 6%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −4.8% a year for the price and +4.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+7.5%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+7.0%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.1%
SPIWF screens overvalued: fair value 18% below the price. Compare with Quanta Services, Inc →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (30 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
- SPIE SA (SPIWF) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth and Margin Expansion ...
- SPIE SA (SPIWF) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Navigating Challenges with Strategic Acquisitions
- SPIE SA (SPIWF) Full Year 2025 Earnings Call Highlights: Record EBITDA Margin and Strategic ...
- SPIE announces the acquisition of INVIZO in Slovakia
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 791 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Engineering & Construction stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quanta Services, Inc PWR | $642.51 | $162.77 | −75% |
| Vinci SA DG | €105.60 | €186.22 | +76% |
| Comfort Systems USA, Inc FIX | $1,658 | $1,116 | −33% |
| Larsen & Toubro Limited LT | ₹3,876 | ₹1,994 | −49% |
| Samsung C&T Corporation 028260 | 367,000 KRW | 159,718 KRW | −56% |
| Ferrovial N.V FER | $55.77 | $21.74 | −61% |
| HOCHTIEF Aktiengesellschaft HOT | €407.40 | €203.86 | −50% |
| EMCOR Group EME | $769.03 | $525.05 | −32% |
| ACS, Actividades de Construcción y Servicios, S.A ACS | €95.00 | €62.20 | −35% |
| Bouygues SA EN | €43.14 | €66.31 | +54% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is SPIE SA (SPIWF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $40.35 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $49.30, about −18% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SPIWF?
Our model-based fair value for SPIE SA is $40.35 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $49.30.
What is the quality score of SPIWF?
SPIE SA has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SPIE SA (SPIWF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $40.35 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $25.49, optimistic scenario $55.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SPIE SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $40.35, about −18% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $49.30 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $25.49, optimistic scenario $55.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SPIE SA (SPIWF)?
SPIE SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €10.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does SPIE SA pay a dividend?
SPIE SA currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.19% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into SPIE SA (SPIWF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SPIE SA would have to grow free cash flow by -2.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 7 years revenue grew +6.4 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SPIWF use?
Our models discount SPIE SA at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.78, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SPIE SA that is -2.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SPIE SA (SPIWF) delivered so far?
Over the past 7 years revenue at SPIE SA grew +6.4 % a year. The price currently implies -2.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SPIE SA (SPIWF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SPIE SA (-2.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SPIE SA (SPIWF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.89 %: that much free cash flow SPIE SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SPIE SA (SPIWF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SPIE SA it is $40.35 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $49.30. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SPIE SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, SPIWF trades above its calculated fair value: price $49.30, fair value $40.35, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SPIWF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($49.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($40.35). For SPIE SA the two are $8.95 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SPIE SA worth?
The market values SPIE SA at about $9.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $49.30; our models calculate a fair value of $40.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SPIWF?
Our models span a range for SPIE SA: cautious scenario $25.49, base $40.35, optimistic $55.20 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $49.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SPIWF?
SPIE SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.4 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $40.35 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 4.3, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 11.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of SPIE SA (SPIWF)?
Balance-sheet figures for SPIE SA (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 8.4%, debt of 0.83 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to SPIE SA?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SPIE SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $49.30, calculated fair value $40.35 (−18%), Quality Score 58/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SPIWF calculated?
We run SPIE SA through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $40.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. SPIE SA itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SPIE SA (SPIWF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $49.30. Our model-based fair value is $40.35, about −18% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SPIE SA right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($25.49 to $55.20) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of SPIE SA
How large is the market capitalisation of SPIE SA (SPIWF)?
The market capitalisation of SPIE SA is $9.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SPIE SA (SPIWF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SPIE SA is 0.70 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SPIE SA (SPIWF)?
Earnings per share at SPIE SA are $1.19 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SPIE SA (SPIWF)?
The dividend yield of SPIE SA is 2.2% (payout 90.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SPIE SA (SPIWF)?
The net margin of SPIE SA is 1.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SPIE SA (SPIWF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SPIE SA is 8.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SPIE SA (SPIWF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SPIE SA is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SPIE SA (SPIWF)?
The operating margin of SPIE SA is 8.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SPIE SA (SPIWF)?
Revenue at SPIE SA is growing +2.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SPIE SA (SPIWF)?
Earnings per share at SPIE SA are growing −11.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SPIE SA (SPIWF) carry?
The net debt of SPIE SA is €1.4B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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