Sappi Ltd (SPPJY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Sappi Ltd $1.35, price $0.84, upside +60.5%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.6100 – $3.54 · fair‑value band $1.01 – $1.70 · the $0.8400 price screens below the $1.35 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Sappi Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides woodfiber-based renewable resources in Europe, North America, and South Africa.
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Sappi Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides woodfiber-based renewable resources in Europe, North America, and South Africa. The company offers speciality paper; flexible packaging paper, paperboard, containerboard, release liner, label paper, functional papers, uncoated woodfree paper, coated and uncoated woodfree paper, coated mechanical paper, thinprint, inkjet paper, and label paper. It also offers dissolving pulp, graphic, packaging and speciality, casting, and release papers; forestry, and bio-energy materials. In addition, the company provides biomaterials, such as valida, lignin, and furfural, as well as engages in insurance business. Sappi Limited company was founded in 1936 and is based in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Sappi Ltd ADR (SPPJY) currently trades at $0.8400, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.35, implying the stock looks roughly 37.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $2.85 per share, and 10 of the 12 models we run sit above the $0.8400 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.4700, and 2 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $1.01 (bear) to $1.70 (bull), the price of $0.8400 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Sappi Ltd ADR reported revenue of $5.5B in FY2024 versus $4.6B in FY2020, a compound +4.3%/yr. Reported net income was $33.0M in FY2024.
Key figures
Market cap $508M · P/S ratio 0.08 · EPS (TTM) $−1.11 · Net margin 0.6% · Return on equity −31.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7% · Operating margin −24.0% · Revenue (TTM) $5.3B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 26% fair-value upside, at 60%, SPPJY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.01Fair Value $1.35Bull $1.70
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.8/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−6.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−35.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−35.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−35% vs −15%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2024 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 3%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Paper & Paper Products · 122 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score36 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+61% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−13% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−24% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)19.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.60× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Paper & Paper Products median · lower = cheaper
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As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1.35 versus a price of $0.8400, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SPPJY?
Our model-based fair value for Sappi Ltd ADR is $1.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.8400.
What is the quality score of SPPJY?
Sappi Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sappi Ltd (SPPJY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1.35 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.01, optimistic scenario $1.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sappi Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1.35, about +60% upside versus a price of $0.8400 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $1.01, optimistic scenario $1.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sappi Ltd (SPPJY)?
Sappi Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Sappi Ltd (SPPJY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sappi Ltd ADR it is $1.35 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $0.8400. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sappi Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SPPJY trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.8400, fair value $1.35, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SPPJY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.8400); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1.35). For Sappi Ltd ADR the two are $0.5080 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sappi Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Sappi Ltd ADR at about $508M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $0.8400; our models calculate a fair value of $1.35 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SPPJY?
Our models span a range for Sappi Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $1.01, base $1.35, optimistic $1.70 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $0.8400). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of SPPJY?
The PEG ratio of Sappi Ltd ADR is 0.22 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sappi Ltd (SPPJY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sappi Ltd ADR (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −31.1%, debt of 0.60 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 36/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SPPJY from its 52-week high?
Sappi Ltd ADR trades at $0.8400, about 48% below its 52-week high of $1.61 and 38% above the low of $0.6100 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1.35 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sappi Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value UPM-Kymmene Oyj, Shandong Sunpaper Co, Nine Dragons Paper (Holdings) Limited, The Navigator Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sappi Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $0.8400, calculated fair value $1.35 (+60%), Quality Score 36/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SPPJY calculated?
We run Sappi Ltd ADR through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1.35, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Sappi Ltd ADR currently trades 60 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sappi Ltd (SPPJY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $0.8400. Our model-based fair value is $1.35, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sappi Ltd ADR right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (36/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($1.01). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Sappi Ltd (SPPJY) come from?
Earnings per share at Sappi Ltd ADR grew +5.8 % a year from 2014 to 2024. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.5 %, EBIT margin +1.5 %, tax rate −1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sappi Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Sappi Ltd (SPPJY)?
The market capitalisation of Sappi Ltd ADR is $508M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sappi Ltd (SPPJY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sappi Ltd ADR is 0.08 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sappi Ltd (SPPJY)?
Earnings per share at Sappi Ltd ADR are $−1.11. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Sappi Ltd (SPPJY)?
The net margin of Sappi Ltd ADR is 0.6% (fiscal year 2024). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sappi Ltd (SPPJY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sappi Ltd ADR is −31.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sappi Ltd (SPPJY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sappi Ltd ADR is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sappi Ltd (SPPJY)?
The operating margin of Sappi Ltd ADR is −24.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sappi Ltd (SPPJY)?
Revenue at Sappi Ltd ADR is growing −1.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sappi Ltd (SPPJY)?
Earnings per share at Sappi Ltd ADR are growing +14.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Sappi Ltd (SPPJY) generate?
The free cash flow of Sappi Ltd ADR is −$413M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Sappi Ltd (SPPJY) carry?
The net debt of Sappi Ltd ADR is $1.4B (fiscal year 2024). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026