Shiseido Company Limited (SSDOF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Shiseido Company Limited $14.65, price $22.50, upside -34.9%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Shiseido Company Limited for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.23 – $68.85 · fair‑value band $10.24 – $14.65 · the $22.50 price screens above the $14.65 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Follow Shiseido Company in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Shiseido Company is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Shiseido Company, Limited produces and sells in Japan and internationally. It offers fragrances, skincare, and makeup products through retail channels. The company also engages in the restaurant and food businesses; and operates beauty salons. In addition, it operates and supports SABFA, a professional hair makeup training school.
Show more
Shiseido Company, Limited produces and sells in Japan and internationally. It offers fragrances, skincare, and makeup products through retail channels. The company also engages in the restaurant and food businesses; and operates beauty salons. In addition, it operates and supports SABFA, a professional hair makeup training school. Further, the company manages childcare facilities. It serves its products under the BAUM, BENEFIQUE, Clé de Peau Beauté, Dr. Dennis Gross Skincare, Drunk Elephant, EFFECTIM, Gallinée, INOUI, IPSA, ISSEY MIYAKE PARFUMS, NARS, narciso rodriguez, Serge Lutens, SHISEIDO, THE GINZA, Tory Burch Beauty, ZADIG&VOLTAIRE, ANESSA, AQUA LABEL, AUPRES, d program, ELIXIR, HAKU, INTEGRATE, MAJOLICA MAJORCA, MAQuillAGE, PRIOR, REVITAL, URARA, INRYU, The Collagen, and Perfect Cover brands. The company sells its products through department, specialized cosmetic, drug, and general merchandise stores. Shiseido Company, Limited was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Chuo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Shiseido Company Limited (SSDOF) currently trades at $22.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.65, 34.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $12.97 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the $22.50 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.24, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $10.24 (bear) to $14.65 (bull), the price of $22.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Shiseido Company Limited reported revenue of ¥971B in FY2025 versus ¥1.0T in FY2021, a compound −1.6%/yr. Reported net income was −¥40.7B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $9.0B · EPS (TTM) $−0.6300 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin −4.2% · Return on equity −5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.1% · Operating margin 5.3% · Revenue (TTM) ¥974B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 50% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −35%, SSDOF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $10.24Fair Value $14.65Bull $14.65
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.25/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.4% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.6% (2020) → 1.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+9.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.0% a year for the price and +0.8% for the forecasts.
Compare Shiseido Company Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Household & Personal Products · 240 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−87.5% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1.2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−3.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5.3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.30× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper
P/FCF0.1× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA1.2× · Cheapest 25%
PEG2.12× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)8· sector 15
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)85· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)45· sector 54
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shiseido Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SSDOF
Frequently asked questions
Is Shiseido Company Limited (SSDOF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.65 versus a price of $22.50, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SSDOF?
Our model-based fair value for Shiseido Company Limited is $14.65 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.50.
What is the quality score of SSDOF?
Shiseido Company Limited has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shiseido Company Limited (SSDOF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.65 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.24, optimistic scenario $14.65. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shiseido Company Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.65, about −35% upside versus a price of $22.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.24, optimistic scenario $14.65. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shiseido Company Limited (SSDOF)?
Shiseido Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥974B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Shiseido Company Limited pay a dividend?
Shiseido Company Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.23% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shiseido Company Limited (SSDOF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shiseido Company Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +9.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SSDOF use?
Our models discount Shiseido Company Limited at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shiseido Company Limited that is +9.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shiseido Company Limited (SSDOF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shiseido Company Limited grew +1.1 % a year. The price currently implies +9.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shiseido Company Limited (SSDOF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shiseido Company Limited (+9.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shiseido Company Limited (SSDOF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.62 %: that much free cash flow Shiseido Company Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shiseido Company Limited (SSDOF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shiseido Company Limited it is $14.65 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $22.50. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shiseido Company Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SSDOF trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.50, fair value $14.65, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SSDOF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.65). For Shiseido Company Limited the two are $7.85 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shiseido Company Limited worth?
The market values Shiseido Company Limited at about $9.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $22.50; our models calculate a fair value of $14.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SSDOF?
Our models span a range for Shiseido Company Limited: cautious scenario $10.24, base $14.65, optimistic $14.65 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $22.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of SSDOF?
The PEG ratio of Shiseido Company Limited is 2.12 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shiseido Company Limited (SSDOF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shiseido Company Limited (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −5.6%, debt of 0.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SSDOF from its 52-week high?
Shiseido Company Limited trades at $22.50, at its 52-week high of $22.50 and 50% above the low of $15.05 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $14.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shiseido Company Limited?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Colgate-Palmolive Company, Hindustan Unilever Limited, Kenvue Inc, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shiseido Company Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $22.50, calculated fair value $14.65 (−35%), Quality Score 52/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SSDOF calculated?
We run Shiseido Company Limited through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.65, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Shiseido Company Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shiseido Company Limited (SSDOF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $22.50. Our model-based fair value is $14.65, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shiseido Company Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($14.65). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (52/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Shiseido Company Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Shiseido Company Limited (SSDOF)?
The market capitalisation of Shiseido Company Limited is $9.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Shiseido Company Limited (SSDOF)?
Earnings per share at Shiseido Company Limited are $−0.6300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shiseido Company Limited (SSDOF)?
The dividend yield of Shiseido Company Limited is 2.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shiseido Company Limited (SSDOF)?
The net margin of Shiseido Company Limited is −4.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shiseido Company Limited (SSDOF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shiseido Company Limited is −5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shiseido Company Limited (SSDOF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shiseido Company Limited is 2.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shiseido Company Limited (SSDOF)?
The operating margin of Shiseido Company Limited is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shiseido Company Limited (SSDOF)?
Revenue at Shiseido Company Limited is growing +1.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shiseido Company Limited (SSDOF)?
Earnings per share at Shiseido Company Limited are growing +127% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shiseido Company Limited (SSDOF) carry?
The net debt of Shiseido Company Limited is ¥231B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Shiseido Company Limited in the live analysis
One click puts Shiseido Company Limited on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Some data
Sep 23, 2026