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Strike Energy Ltd (STX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Strike Energy Ltd A$0.26, price A$0.12, upside +126.1%, quality 21 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Energy · AU · ISIN AU000000STX7

SE Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Strike Energy Ltd

STX · AU

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value A$0.2600 · Strongly undervalued (+126%)
!Quality 21/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue YoY +59.5 %/yr)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (3/10)
!Narrow moat 8/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 3 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.5000 A$0.0950 Fair Value A$0.2600 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0950 – A$0.5000 · fair‑value band A$0.1900 – A$0.3200 · the A$0.1150 price screens below the A$0.2600 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Strike Energy Limited, an independent gas producer, explores for and develops oil and gas resources in Australia. Its flagship project is the Greater Erregulla Permian gas field, which includes the West and South Erregulla projects located in Perth basin.

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Strike Energy Limited, an independent gas producer, explores for and develops oil and gas resources in Australia. Its flagship project is the Greater Erregulla Permian gas field, which includes the West and South Erregulla projects located in Perth basin. The company was formerly known as Strike Oil Limited and changed its name to Strike Oil Limited in December 2009. The company was incorporated in 1997 and is based in West Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Strike Energy Ltd (STX) currently trades at A$0.1150, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.2600, implying the stock looks roughly 55.8% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.1900 (bear) to A$0.3200 (bull), the price of A$0.1150 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 21/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Strike Energy Ltd reported revenue of A$72.7M in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −A$157M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$330M (≈ $231M) · P/S ratio 4.79 · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0500 · Net margin −211% · Return on equity −38.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −2.7% · Operating margin −14.0% · Revenue (TTM) A$72.9M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 126%, STX screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.1900 Fair Value A$0.2600 Bull A$0.3200
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EV/EBITDA A$0.1900 A$0.2600 A$0.3200 67
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0400 A$0.0600 A$0.0800 54
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDA A$0.1900 A$0.2600 A$0.3200 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0400 A$0.0600 A$0.0800 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 21/100

Of which business quality 28 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 1
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 33
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 55
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 49
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 54
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 41
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 10
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 27/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+59.5%
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+30.4%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
37.1% (2004) → −14.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 308 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +126% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −14% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −14% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.26× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.78× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 3.17× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.6× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 26
FUTURE (revenue growth)3 · sector 12
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 9
HEALTH (low debt)87 · sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 72

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $129.34 $90.15 −30%
CNOOC Limited 0883 HK$23.84 HK$39.90 +67%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ $47.64 $52.40 +10%
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $141.84 $165.02 +16%
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $57.36 $33.34 −42%
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $185.65 $242.64 +31%
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $48.04 $52.84 +10%
Woodside Energy Group WDS A$31.13 A$23.59 −24%
EQT Corporation EQT $51.06 $56.17 +10%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL $335.74 $318.28 −5%

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Strike Energy Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.2600 +56%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Strike Energy Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/STX.AU

Frequently asked questions

Is Strike Energy Ltd (STX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.2600 versus a price of A$0.1150, about +126% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of STX?
Our model-based fair value for Strike Energy Ltd is A$0.2600 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1150.
What is the quality score of STX?
Strike Energy Ltd has a Quality Score of 21/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Strike Energy Ltd (STX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.2600 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.1900, optimistic scenario A$0.3200. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Strike Energy Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.2600, about +126% upside versus a price of A$0.1150 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.1900, optimistic scenario A$0.3200. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Strike Energy Ltd (STX)?
Strike Energy Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$72.9M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Strike Energy Ltd (STX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Strike Energy Ltd it is A$0.2600 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of A$0.1150. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Strike Energy Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, STX trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.1150, fair value A$0.2600, a gap of about +126% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of STX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1150); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.2600). For Strike Energy Ltd the two are A$0.1450 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Strike Energy Ltd worth?
The market values Strike Energy Ltd at about A$330M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1150; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.2600 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about STX?
Our models span a range for Strike Energy Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.1900, base A$0.2600, optimistic A$0.3200 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price A$0.1150). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Strike Energy Ltd (STX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Strike Energy Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −38.1%, debt of 0.26 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 21/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is STX from its 52-week high?
Strike Energy Ltd trades at A$0.1150, about 18% below its 52-week high of A$0.1400 and 21% above the low of A$0.0950 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.2600 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Strike Energy Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Strike Energy Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price A$0.1150, calculated fair value A$0.2600 (+126%), Quality Score 21/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of STX calculated?
We run Strike Energy Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.2600, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Strike Energy Ltd currently trades 126 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Strike Energy Ltd (STX)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.1150. Our model-based fair value is A$0.2600, about +126% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Strike Energy Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (21/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.1900). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Strike Energy Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Strike Energy Ltd (STX)?
The market capitalisation of Strike Energy Ltd is A$330M (≈ $231M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Strike Energy Ltd (STX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Strike Energy Ltd is 4.79 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Strike Energy Ltd (STX)?
Earnings per share at Strike Energy Ltd are A$−0.0500. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Strike Energy Ltd (STX)?
The net margin of Strike Energy Ltd is −211% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Strike Energy Ltd (STX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Strike Energy Ltd is −38.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Strike Energy Ltd (STX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Strike Energy Ltd is −2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Strike Energy Ltd (STX)?
The operating margin of Strike Energy Ltd is −14.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Strike Energy Ltd (STX)?
Revenue at Strike Energy Ltd is growing +0.5% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Strike Energy Ltd (STX) generate?
The free cash flow of Strike Energy Ltd is −A$44.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Strike Energy Ltd (STX) carry?
The net debt of Strike Energy Ltd is A$39.7M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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