Surteco Group SE (SUR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Surteco Group SE €16.08, price €7.15, upside +124.9%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €7.15 – €36.95 · fair‑value band €12.41 – €18.35 · the €7.15 price screens below the €16.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Surteco Group SE engages in the development, production, and sale of coated surface materials based on paper and plastic in Germany, rest of Europe, the United States, Asia, Australia, and internationally.
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Surteco Group SE engages in the development, production, and sale of coated surface materials based on paper and plastic in Germany, rest of Europe, the United States, Asia, Australia, and internationally. The company offers decor papers, finish foils, impregnates and release papers, melamine edgings, and paper-based edgebandings; plastic edgebandings, thermoplastic films, and cylinder engraving; and floor strip and skirting systems, wall edging systems, technical extrusions, and accessories. Its products are used for floors, caravan, wood-based material, home furniture, office, kitchen, door, and trade industries. The company was founded in 1999 and is based in Buttenwiesen, Germany.
Stock analysis
Surteco Group SE (SUR) currently trades at €7.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €16.08, implying the stock looks roughly 55.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €40.88 per share, and 13 of the 15 models we run sit above the €7.15 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €2.77, and 2 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €12.41 (bear) to €18.35 (bull), the price of €7.15 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Surteco Group SE reported revenue of €821M in FY2025 versus €757M in FY2021, a compound +2.1%/yr. Reported net income was −€14.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap €153M · P/S ratio 0.19 · EPS (TTM) €−0.9200 · Dividend yield 3.0% · Net margin −1.7% · Return on equity −2.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2% · Operating margin 2.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 46% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 125%, SUR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €12.41Fair Value €16.08Bull €18.35
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.36/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.5% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
7.2% (2020) → 5.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances · 317 stocks
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Surteco Group SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SUR
Frequently asked questions
Is Surteco Group SE (SUR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €16.08 versus a price of €7.15, about +125% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SUR?
Our model-based fair value for Surteco Group SE is €16.08 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €7.15.
What is the quality score of SUR?
Surteco Group SE has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Surteco Group SE (SUR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €16.08 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario €12.41, optimistic scenario €18.35. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Surteco Group SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €16.08, about +125% upside versus a price of €7.15 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €12.41, optimistic scenario €18.35. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Surteco Group SE (SUR)?
Surteco Group SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €810M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Surteco Group SE pay a dividend?
Surteco Group SE currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.05% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Surteco Group SE (SUR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Surteco Group SE would have to grow free cash flow by +35.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SUR use?
Our models discount Surteco Group SE at 11.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.54, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Surteco Group SE that is +35.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Surteco Group SE (SUR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Surteco Group SE grew +5.5 % a year. The price currently implies +35.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Surteco Group SE (SUR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Surteco Group SE (+35.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Surteco Group SE (SUR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.32 %: that much free cash flow Surteco Group SE produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Surteco Group SE (SUR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Surteco Group SE it is €16.08 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €7.15. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Surteco Group SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SUR trades below its calculated fair value: price €7.15, fair value €16.08, a gap of about +125% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SUR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€7.15); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€16.08). For Surteco Group SE the two are €8.93 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Surteco Group SE worth?
The market values Surteco Group SE at about €153M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €7.15; our models calculate a fair value of €16.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SUR?
Our models span a range for Surteco Group SE: cautious scenario €12.41, base €16.08, optimistic €18.35 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €7.15). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of SUR?
The PEG ratio of Surteco Group SE is 0.58 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Surteco Group SE (SUR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Surteco Group SE (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −2.1%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SUR from its 52-week high?
Surteco Group SE trades at €7.15, about 46% below its 52-week high of €13.30 and at the low of €7.15 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €16.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Surteco Group SE?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Midea Group, Gree Electric Appliances, Inc, Haier Smart Home Co, King Slide Works Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Surteco Group SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €7.15, calculated fair value €16.08 (+125%), Quality Score 43/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SUR calculated?
We run Surteco Group SE through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €16.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Surteco Group SE currently trades 125 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Surteco Group SE (SUR)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was €7.15. Our model-based fair value is €16.08, about +125% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Surteco Group SE right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (€12.41). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Key figures of Surteco Group SE
How large is the market capitalisation of Surteco Group SE (SUR)?
The market capitalisation of Surteco Group SE is €153M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Surteco Group SE (SUR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Surteco Group SE is 0.19 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Surteco Group SE (SUR)?
Earnings per share at Surteco Group SE are €−0.9200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Surteco Group SE (SUR)?
The dividend yield of Surteco Group SE is 3.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Surteco Group SE (SUR)?
The net margin of Surteco Group SE is −1.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Surteco Group SE (SUR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Surteco Group SE is −2.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Surteco Group SE (SUR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Surteco Group SE is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Surteco Group SE (SUR)?
The operating margin of Surteco Group SE is 2.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Surteco Group SE (SUR)?
Revenue at Surteco Group SE is growing −6.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Surteco Group SE (SUR)?
Earnings per share at Surteco Group SE are growing +90.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Surteco Group SE (SUR) carry?
The net debt of Surteco Group SE is €312M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 44.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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