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Black Swan Graphene Inc. (SWAN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Black Swan Graphene Inc. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · CA · ISIN CA09226M2094

BS Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Black Swan Graphene Inc.

SWAN · V

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value C$0.1400 · Strongly overvalued (−85%)
!Quality 41/100
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (0/8)
!Narrow moat 6/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

C$2.24 C$0.5600 Fair Value C$0.1400 Dec 2017 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$0.5600 – C$2.24 · fair‑value band C$0.0900 – C$0.1800 · the C$0.9300 price screens above the C$0.1400 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Black Swan Graphene Inc. engages in the production and commercialization of patented graphene products for industrial sectors in Canada. It offers concrete, polymers, Li-ion batteries, and other products. Black Swan Graphene Inc. is based in Toronto, Canada.

Stock analysis

Black Swan Graphene Inc. (SWAN) currently trades at C$0.9300, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.1400, implying the stock looks roughly 564.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: C$0.0900 (bear) to C$0.1800 (bull), the price of C$0.9300 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Black Swan Graphene Inc. reported revenue of C$0 in FY2025 versus C$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −C$7.5M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap C$49.3M (≈ $35.6M) · EPS (TTM) C$−0.1300 · Return on equity −45.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −30.6% · Free cash flow −C$4.1M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −85%, SWAN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear C$0.0900 Fair Value C$0.1400 Bull C$0.1800
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) C$0.1200 C$0.1600 C$0.2400 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) C$0.1200 C$0.1600 C$0.2400 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 41/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 51
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 100
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 19
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 13
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

SWAN screens 564% overvalued. Compare with BASF SE →

Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Chemicals · 330 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside −85% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −24% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 0% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Chemicals median · lower = cheaper

P/B 2.51× · Pricier than median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Chemicals stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
BASF SE BAS €51.83 €23.76 −54%
Saudi Basic Industries Corporation 2010 49.80 SAR 24.66 SAR −50%
A. Schulman, Inc SLMNP $849.00 $203.64 −76%
Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group 600989 ¥23.97 ¥36.45 +52%
Dow Inc DOW $29.03 $21.03 −28%
Zhejiang Juhua Co 600160 ¥35.26 ¥19.58 −44%
Rongsheng Petrochemical Co 002493 ¥13.76 ¥2.39 −83%
Zangge Mining Company 000408 ¥72.65 ¥79.92 +10%
PT Barito Pacific Tbk, BRPT 1,700 IDR 1,563 IDR −8%
Ganfeng Lithium Group 002460 ¥46.67 ¥16.17 −65%

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Black Swan Graphene Inc. · Fair Value
C$0.1400 −564%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Black Swan Graphene Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SWAN

Frequently asked questions

Is Black Swan Graphene Inc. (SWAN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$0.1400 versus a price of C$0.9300, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SWAN?
Our model-based fair value for Black Swan Graphene Inc. is C$0.1400 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$0.9300.
What is the quality score of SWAN?
Black Swan Graphene Inc. has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Black Swan Graphene Inc. (SWAN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$0.1400 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$0.0900, optimistic scenario C$0.1800. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Black Swan Graphene Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$0.1400, about −85% upside versus a price of C$0.9300 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$0.0900, optimistic scenario C$0.1800. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Black Swan Graphene Inc. (SWAN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Black Swan Graphene Inc. it is C$0.1400 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of C$0.9300. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Black Swan Graphene Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, SWAN trades above its calculated fair value: price C$0.9300, fair value C$0.1400, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SWAN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$0.9300); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$0.1400). For Black Swan Graphene Inc. the two are C$0.7900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Black Swan Graphene Inc. worth?
The market values Black Swan Graphene Inc. at about C$49.3M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is C$0.9300; our models calculate a fair value of C$0.1400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SWAN?
Our models span a range for Black Swan Graphene Inc.: cautious scenario C$0.0900, base C$0.1400, optimistic C$0.1800 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price C$0.9300). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Black Swan Graphene Inc. (SWAN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Black Swan Graphene Inc. (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −45.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SWAN from its 52-week high?
Black Swan Graphene Inc. trades at C$0.9300, about 65% below its 52-week high of C$2.65 and 18% above the low of C$0.7900 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$0.1400 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Black Swan Graphene Inc.?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value BASF SE, Saudi Basic Industries Corporation, A. Schulman, Inc, Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Black Swan Graphene Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price C$0.9300, calculated fair value C$0.1400 (−85%), Quality Score 41/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SWAN calculated?
We run Black Swan Graphene Inc. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$0.1400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 32.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Black Swan Graphene Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Black Swan Graphene Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$0.1800). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (C$0.0900 to C$0.1800) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Black Swan Graphene Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Black Swan Graphene Inc. (SWAN)?
The market capitalisation of Black Swan Graphene Inc. is C$49.3M (≈ $35.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Black Swan Graphene Inc. (SWAN)?
Earnings per share at Black Swan Graphene Inc. are C$−0.1300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Black Swan Graphene Inc. (SWAN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Black Swan Graphene Inc. is −45.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Black Swan Graphene Inc. (SWAN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Black Swan Graphene Inc. is −30.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Black Swan Graphene Inc. (SWAN) generate?
The free cash flow of Black Swan Graphene Inc. is −C$4.1M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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