Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Sweco AB (publ) SEK 140, price SEK 128, upside +9.7%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 75.72 – kr 184.58 · fair‑value band kr 104.86 – kr 174.76 · the kr 127.50 price screens below the kr 139.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Sweco AB (publ) provides architecture and engineering consultancy services worldwide. The company operates through Buildings and Urban Areas; Water, Energy, and Industry; Transportation Infrastructure; and Architecture segments.
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Sweco AB (publ) provides architecture and engineering consultancy services worldwide. The company operates through Buildings and Urban Areas; Water, Energy, and Industry; Transportation Infrastructure; and Architecture segments. It provides energy analysis and environmental certification, fire safety engineering and risk analysis, and HVAC and sanitation, as well as design of electrical, telecom, and security systems; building construction and industrial structures design, and construction economics, as well as steel, timber, and glass structures design; statistics and forecasts, analysis and strategy, studies, and planning and design; project and design management, property development and management, and site supervision; and systems development and big data, data coordination and BIM, 3D visualization and geographical analyses, and strategy and operational support services, as well as Twinfinity, a BIM platform. The company offers energy production studies, transmission and distribution planning, and energy market analysis and optimization advice; water and wastewater engineering, water resource planning, urban water management, and design of flood protection structures; waste management planning and advice, environmental studies and impact assessments, and chemical substances and associated legislation; and process engineering, plant design, and logistics planning services. It provides road and land use planning, rock excavation design and geotechnical engineering, bridge design, port master planning, and surveying; tracks, electricity, signaling, telecoms, and operation and maintenance; and capacity, accessibility, and strategic planning services, as well as intelligent transportation systems. The company also offers urban planning; landscape, building, and interior architecture; and cultural heritage and lighting design services. The company was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A) currently trades at kr 127.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 139.81, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.8%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 172.95 per share, and 14 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 127.50 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 23.04, and 10 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 104.86 (bear) to kr 174.76 (bull), the price of kr 127.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Sweco AB (publ) reported revenue of 31.6B SEK in FY2025 versus 21.8B SEK in FY2021, a compound +9.7%/yr. Reported net income was 2.2B SEK in FY2025, compounding +10.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 46.0B SEK (≈ $4.6B) · P/E ratio 21.9 · P/S ratio 1.55 · EPS (TTM) kr 6.02 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 7.0% · Return on equity 18.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −35% fair-value upside, at 10%, SWEC-A screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 104.86Fair Value kr 139.81Bull kr 174.76
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 1.75 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.75/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.7% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+12.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.9% vs 12.5%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 10%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.0% a year for the price and +3.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Engineering & Construction · 791 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+9.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18.8% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)7.0% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)10.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.9% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Engineering & Construction median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sweco AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SWEC-A
Frequently asked questions
Is Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 139.81 versus a price of kr 127.50, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SWEC-A?
Our model-based fair value for Sweco AB (publ) is kr 139.81 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 127.50.
What is the quality score of SWEC-A?
Sweco AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 139.81 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 104.86, optimistic scenario kr 174.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sweco AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 139.81, about +10% upside versus a price of kr 127.50 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario kr 104.86, optimistic scenario kr 174.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A)?
Sweco AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 32.6B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Sweco AB (publ) pay a dividend?
Sweco AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.90% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sweco AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by +1.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.7 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SWEC-A use?
Our models discount Sweco AB (publ) at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.91, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sweco AB (publ) that is +1.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sweco AB (publ) grew +8.7 % a year. The price currently implies +1.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sweco AB (publ) (+1.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.81 %: that much free cash flow Sweco AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sweco AB (publ) it is kr 139.81 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of kr 127.50. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sweco AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, SWEC-A trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 127.50, fair value kr 139.81, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SWEC-A?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 127.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 139.81). For Sweco AB (publ) the two are kr 12.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sweco AB (publ) worth?
The market values Sweco AB (publ) at about 46.0B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is kr 127.50; our models calculate a fair value of kr 139.81 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SWEC-A?
Our models span a range for Sweco AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 104.86, base kr 139.81, optimistic kr 174.76 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price kr 127.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SWEC-A?
Sweco AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.9 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 139.81 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 4.5, P/B 3.7, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 11.3.
What is the PEG ratio of SWEC-A?
The PEG ratio of Sweco AB (publ) is 4.55 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sweco AB (publ) (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 18.8%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SWEC-A from its 52-week high?
Sweco AB (publ) trades at kr 127.50, about 24% below its 52-week high of kr 168.83 and 3% above the low of kr 124.00 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 139.81 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sweco AB (publ)?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Quanta Services, Inc, Vinci SA, Comfort Systems USA, Inc, Larsen & Toubro Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sweco AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price kr 127.50, calculated fair value kr 139.81 (+10%), Quality Score 65/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SWEC-A calculated?
We run Sweco AB (publ) through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 139.81, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Sweco AB (publ) currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was kr 127.50. Our model-based fair value is kr 139.81, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sweco AB (publ) right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A) come from?
Earnings per share at Sweco AB (publ) grew +12.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.0 %, EBIT margin +3.2 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sweco AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A)?
The market capitalisation of Sweco AB (publ) is 46.0B SEK (≈ $4.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sweco AB (publ) is 1.55 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A)?
Earnings per share at Sweco AB (publ) are kr 6.02 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A)?
The dividend yield of Sweco AB (publ) is 2.9% (payout 61.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A)?
The net margin of Sweco AB (publ) is 7.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sweco AB (publ) is 18.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sweco AB (publ) is 10.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A)?
The operating margin of Sweco AB (publ) is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A)?
Revenue at Sweco AB (publ) is growing +9.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A)?
Earnings per share at Sweco AB (publ) are growing +21.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sweco AB (publ) (SWEC-A) carry?
The net debt of Sweco AB (publ) is 5.1B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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