Systemair AB (SYSR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Systemair AB SEK 57.26, price SEK 87.10, upside -34.3%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 44.94 – kr 99.84 · fair‑value band kr 40.08 – kr 81.44 · the kr 87.10 price screens above the kr 57.26 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Systemair AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells of ventilation, heating and cooling products, and systems in Europe, North America, the Middle East, Asia, Australia, and Africa.
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Systemair AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells of ventilation, heating and cooling products, and systems in Europe, North America, the Middle East, Asia, Australia, and Africa. The company offers duct, roof, axial, domestic, centrifugal, ceiling, and jet fans; electrical accessories, including cable and controller parts, controllers, enclosures/boxes/frames, motor protection, sensors and transmitters, speed controllers, main switches, timers, dampers, valves and actuators, and other accessories; mechanical accessories comprising filter cassettes, hoods mounting equipment, silencers, and heating and cooling batteries; residential ventilation systems, which include air handling, single room, and heat pumps and multi-units, geothermal and vacuum systems, residential fans, cooker hoods, diffusers and air valves, ducts, grilles, filters, and accessories; and air distribution products consisting of grilles, air volume controls, diffusers, and louvers. It also provides fire and smoke control dampers and smoke tight closures; air conditioning, such as chillers and heat, and water source heat pumps, rooftop, fan coil, and close control units, split and VRF systems; air curtains, including commercial, industrial, cold storage, revolving doors, and controls; and heaters, such as radiant, fan, and controls, convectors, and ceiling fans. In addition, the company offers start-up, maintenance, remote diagnostic, spare parts, repairs, and retrofit services. It exports its products and sells it to ventilation contractors and distributors under the Systemair, Frico, Fantech, and Menerga brands. The company serves commercial, industrial, residential, infrastructure, transport, healthcare, education, hospitality, and data centres applications. Systemair AB (publ) was incorporated in 1972 and is headquartered in Skinnskatteberg, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Systemair AB (SYSR) currently trades at kr 87.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 57.26, implying the stock looks roughly 52.1% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 70.91 per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 87.10 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 19.74, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 40.08 (bear) to kr 81.44 (bull), the price of kr 87.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Systemair AB reported revenue of 12.5B SEK in FY2026 versus 9.6B SEK in FY2022, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was 761M SEK in FY2026, compounding +8.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 18.1B SEK (≈ $1.8B) · P/E ratio 23.7 · P/S ratio 1.44 · EPS (TTM) kr 3.67 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 6.1% · Return on equity 12.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −34%, SYSR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 40.08Fair Value kr 57.26Bull kr 81.44
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 5 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.7572 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.71/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.4% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.13% vs 10%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+17.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +15.3% a year for the price and +3.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (86 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Building Products & Equipment · 250 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−34% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13% · Top 25%
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)23.7× · Pricier than median
P/B2.96× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.45× · Pricier than median
P/FCF2.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA11.7× · Pricier than median
PEG2.41× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 12
FUTURE (revenue growth)46· sector 11
PAST (return on equity)51· sector 22
HEALTH (low debt)94· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)33· sector 41
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Systemair AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SYSR
Frequently asked questions
Is Systemair AB (SYSR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 57.26 versus a price of kr 87.10, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SYSR?
Our model-based fair value for Systemair AB is kr 57.26 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 87.10.
What is the quality score of SYSR?
Systemair AB has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Systemair AB (SYSR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 57.26 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 40.08, optimistic scenario kr 81.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Systemair AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 57.26, about −34% upside versus a price of kr 87.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 40.08, optimistic scenario kr 81.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Systemair AB (SYSR)?
Systemair AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 12.2B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Systemair AB pay a dividend?
Systemair AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.66% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Systemair AB (SYSR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Systemair AB would have to grow free cash flow by +17.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +8.0 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SYSR use?
Our models discount Systemair AB at 9.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.39, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Systemair AB that is +17.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Systemair AB (SYSR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Systemair AB grew +8.0 % a year. The price currently implies +17.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Systemair AB (SYSR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Systemair AB (+17.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Systemair AB (SYSR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.45 %: that much free cash flow Systemair AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Systemair AB (SYSR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Systemair AB it is kr 57.26 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 87.10. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Systemair AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SYSR trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 87.10, fair value kr 57.26, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SYSR?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 87.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 57.26). For Systemair AB the two are kr 29.84 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Systemair AB worth?
The market values Systemair AB at about 18.1B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 87.10; our models calculate a fair value of kr 57.26 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SYSR?
Our models span a range for Systemair AB: cautious scenario kr 40.08, base kr 57.26, optimistic kr 81.44 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 87.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SYSR?
Systemair AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 57.26 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.4, P/B 3.0, P/S 1.4, EV/EBITDA 11.7.
What is the PEG ratio of SYSR?
The PEG ratio of Systemair AB is 2.41 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Systemair AB (SYSR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Systemair AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 12.9%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SYSR from its 52-week high?
Systemair AB trades at kr 87.10, about 4% below its 52-week high of kr 90.70 and 26% above the low of kr 69.40 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 57.26 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Systemair AB?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Trane Technologies plc, Johnson Controls International plc, Carrier Global Corporation, Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Systemair AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 87.10, calculated fair value kr 57.26 (−34%), Quality Score 66/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SYSR calculated?
We run Systemair AB through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 57.26, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Systemair AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Systemair AB (SYSR)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was kr 87.10. Our model-based fair value is kr 57.26, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Systemair AB right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 81.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (kr 40.08 to kr 81.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Systemair AB (SYSR) come from?
Earnings per share at Systemair AB grew +11.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.8 %, EBIT margin +3.7 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Systemair AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Systemair AB (SYSR)?
The market capitalisation of Systemair AB is 18.1B SEK (≈ $1.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Systemair AB (SYSR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Systemair AB is 1.44 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Systemair AB (SYSR)?
Earnings per share at Systemair AB are kr 3.67 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Systemair AB (SYSR)?
The dividend yield of Systemair AB is 1.7% (payout 39.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Systemair AB (SYSR)?
The net margin of Systemair AB is 6.1% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Systemair AB (SYSR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Systemair AB is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Systemair AB (SYSR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Systemair AB is 11.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Systemair AB (SYSR)?
The operating margin of Systemair AB is 7.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Systemair AB (SYSR)?
Revenue at Systemair AB is growing +9.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Systemair AB (SYSR)?
Earnings per share at Systemair AB are growing +66.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Systemair AB (SYSR) carry?
The net debt of Systemair AB is 866M SEK (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 1.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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