Systemair AB (SYSR) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · SE · Market cap 16.9B SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from kr 68.88 to kr 69.08 (+0.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +8.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 19% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (kr 39.94 to kr 96.23) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 44.94 – kr 99.84 · fair‑value band kr 39.94 – kr 96.23 · the kr 85.50 price screens above the kr 69.08 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Systemair AB (SYSR) currently trades at kr 85.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 69.08, implying the stock looks roughly 19.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Systemair AB generated revenue of 12.2B SEK at a net margin of 5.7%. Revenue declined 5.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.9%. Net debt stands at 866M SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 39.94 (bear case) to kr 96.23 (bull case); at kr 85.50, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at -19%, SYSR screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 68.71) versus Asset-Based (kr 19.74). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Systemair AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells of ventilation, heating and cooling products, and systems in Europe, North America, the Middle East, Asia, Australia, and Africa.
Full company description
Systemair AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells of ventilation, heating and cooling products, and systems in Europe, North America, the Middle East, Asia, Australia, and Africa. The company offers duct, roof, axial, domestic, centrifugal, ceiling, and jet fans; electrical accessories, including cable and controller parts, controllers, enclosures/boxes/frames, motor protection, sensors and transmitters, speed controllers, main switches, timers, dampers, valves and actuators, and other accessories; mechanical accessories comprising filter cassettes, hoods mounting equipment, silencers, and heating and cooling batteries; residential ventilation systems, which include air handling, single room, and heat pumps and multi-units, geothermal and vacuum systems, residential fans, cooker hoods, diffusers and air valves, ducts, grilles, filters, and accessories; and air distribution products consisting of grilles, air volume controls, diffusers, and louvers. It also provides fire and smoke control dampers and smoke tight closures; air conditioning, such as chillers and heat, and water source heat pumps, rooftop, fan coil, and close control units, split and VRF systems; air curtains, including commercial, industrial, cold storage, revolving doors, and controls; and heaters, such as radiant, fan, and controls, convectors, and ceiling fans. In addition, the company offers start-up, maintenance, remote diagnostic, spare parts, repairs, and retrofit services. It exports its products and sells it to ventilation contractors and distributors under the Systemair, Frico, Fantech, and Menerga brands. The company serves commercial, industrial, residential, infrastructure, transport, healthcare, education, hospitality, and data centres applications. Systemair AB (publ) was incorporated in 1972 and is headquartered in Skinnskatteberg, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Systemair AB reported revenue of kr 12.5B in FY2026 versus kr 9.6B in FY2022, a compound +6.7%/yr. Reported net income was kr 761M in FY2026, compounding +8.8%/yr from FY2022.
SYSR screens 19% overvalued. Compare with Trane Technologies plc →
Peer Group
Building Products & Equipment · 247 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trane Technologies plc TT | $469.98 | $212.34 | -55% |
| Johnson Controls International plc JCI | $142.81 | $45.65 | -68% |
| Carrier Global Corporation CARR | $68.61 | $17.35 | -75% |
| Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO | €76.62 | €101.60 | +33% |
| Geberit AG GEBN | CHF 523.20 | CHF 307.66 | -41% |
| Lennox International Inc LII | $543.93 | $363.09 | -33% |
| Kingspan Group KRX | €87.30 | €70.76 | -19% |
| Masco Corporation MAS | $78.04 | $54.36 | -30% |
| PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk, IMPC | 1,420 IDR | 179.76 IDR | -87% |
| NIBE Industrier AB NIBEB | kr 36.03 | kr 25.37 | -30% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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