TransAlta Corporation (TAC) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $4.5B
TransAlta Corporation
TAC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from $8.45 to $4.54 (−46.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −14.2% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 63% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide ($1.42 to $4.54). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.83 – $17.54 · fair‑value band $1.42 – $4.54 · the $12.43 price screens above the $4.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
TransAlta Corporation (TAC) currently trades at $12.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.54, implying the stock looks roughly 63.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, TransAlta Corporation generated revenue of $2.2B at a net margin of -7.7%. Revenue declined 25.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -11.1%. Net debt stands at $4.2B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.42 (bear case) to $4.54 (bull case); at $12.43, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at -63%, TAC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($6.66) versus Multiples ($1.83). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
TransAlta Corporation engages in the development, production, and sale of electric energy. It operates through Hydro, Wind and Solar, Gas, Energy Transition, and Energy Marketing segments. The Hydro segment holds interest of approximately 922 megawatts (MW) located in Alberta and Canada.
Full company description
TransAlta Corporation engages in the development, production, and sale of electric energy. It operates through Hydro, Wind and Solar, Gas, Energy Transition, and Energy Marketing segments. The Hydro segment holds interest of approximately 922 megawatts (MW) located in Alberta and Canada. The Wind and Solar segment has a net ownership interest of approximately 2,587 MW located in Alberta, Canada, the Unites States, and Western Australia, as well as battery storage facilities. The Gas segment has a net ownership interest of approximately 4834 MW located in Alberta, Canada, the Unites States, and Western Australia. The Energy Transition segment has a net ownership interest of approximately 671 MW located in the United States, as well as operates the Skookumchuck hydro facility in Centralia. The Energy Marketing segment is involved in the trading of electricity, natural gas, and environmental products. TransAlta Corporation was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
TransAlta Corporation reported revenue of $2.4B in FY2025 versus $2.7B in FY2021, a compound −3.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$138M in FY2025.
TAC screens 63% overvalued. Compare with Constellation Energy Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- TransAlta Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- TransAlta Corp (TAC) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strategic Resilience and Data Center ...
- TransAlta FFO of $0.67 beats by $0.30
- TransAlta Reports Strong Second Quarter Results and Reaffirms Guidance
Peer Group
Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 78 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constellation Energy Corporation CEG | $257.57 | $89.08 | -65% |
| Vistra Corp VST | $158.86 | $47.59 | -70% |
| Adani Power Limited ADANIPOWER | ₹218.45 | ₹75.57 | -65% |
| CGN Power Co 003816 | ¥3.88 | ¥3.13 | -19% |
| NRG Energy, Inc NRG | $137.90 | $56.02 | -59% |
| Gulf Development Public Company GULF | 67.50 THB | 40.44 THB | -40% |
| Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL | ₹1,730 | ₹342.02 | -80% |
| Talen Energy Corporation TLN | $372.37 | $44.67 | -88% |
| Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 | ¥5.80 | ¥4.95 | -15% |
| Power Assets Holdings 0006 | HK$58.45 | HK$31.90 | -45% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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