TransAlta Corp (TAC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of TransAlta Corp $7.05, price $11.77, upside -40.1%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.83 – $17.54 · fair‑value band $3.32 – $11.18 · the $11.77 price screens above the $7.05 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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TransAlta Corporation engages in the development, production, and sale of electric energy. It operates through Hydro, Wind and Solar, Gas, Energy Transition, and Energy Marketing segments. The Hydro segment holds interest of approximately 922 megawatts (MW) located in Alberta and Canada.
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TransAlta Corporation engages in the development, production, and sale of electric energy. It operates through Hydro, Wind and Solar, Gas, Energy Transition, and Energy Marketing segments. The Hydro segment holds interest of approximately 922 megawatts (MW) located in Alberta and Canada. The Wind and Solar segment has a net ownership interest of approximately 2,587 MW located in Alberta, Canada, the Unites States, and Western Australia, as well as battery storage facilities. The Gas segment has a net ownership interest of approximately 4834 MW located in Alberta, Canada, the Unites States, and Western Australia. The Energy Transition segment has a net ownership interest of approximately 671 MW located in the United States, as well as operates the Skookumchuck hydro facility in Centralia. The Energy Marketing segment is involved in the trading of electricity, natural gas, and environmental products. TransAlta Corporation was founded in 1909 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
TransAlta Corp (TAC) currently trades at $11.77, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.05, implying the stock looks roughly 66.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $9.68 per share, and 2 of the 13 models we run sit above the $11.77 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $1.83, and 11 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.32 (bear) to $11.18 (bull), the price of $11.77 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
TransAlta Corp reported revenue of C$2.4B in FY2025 versus C$2.7B in FY2021, a compound −3.0%/yr. Reported net income was −C$138M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $4.5B · P/S ratio 2.03 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5300 · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin −5.7% · Return on equity −11.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.7% · Operating margin 18.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −40%, TAC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.32Fair Value $7.05Bull $11.18
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.6% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−4.7% (2020) → −9.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−1.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CAD, Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.0% a year for the price and −3.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (80 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 77 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−40% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)18% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−26% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.34× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
P/B3.21× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.03× · Pricier than median
P/FCF11.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA9.8× · Pricier than median
PEG6.98× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 32
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 71
DIVIDEND (yield)44· sector 61
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TransAlta Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TAC
Frequently asked questions
Is TransAlta Corp (TAC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.05 versus a price of $11.77, about −40% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TAC?
Our model-based fair value for TransAlta Corp is $7.05 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.77.
What is the quality score of TAC?
TransAlta Corp has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TransAlta Corp (TAC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.05 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.32, optimistic scenario $11.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TransAlta Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.05, about −40% upside versus a price of $11.77 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.32, optimistic scenario $11.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TransAlta Corp (TAC)?
TransAlta Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$2.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does TransAlta Corp pay a dividend?
TransAlta Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.21% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into TransAlta Corp (TAC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TransAlta Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +8.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TAC use?
Our models discount TransAlta Corp at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.47, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TransAlta Corp that is +8.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TransAlta Corp (TAC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at TransAlta Corp grew +2.7 % a year. The price currently implies +8.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TransAlta Corp (TAC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TransAlta Corp (+8.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TransAlta Corp (TAC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.02 %: that much free cash flow TransAlta Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TransAlta Corp (TAC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TransAlta Corp it is $7.05 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $11.77. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TransAlta Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TAC trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.77, fair value $7.05, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TAC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.77); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.05). For TransAlta Corp the two are $4.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TransAlta Corp worth?
The market values TransAlta Corp at about $4.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $11.77; our models calculate a fair value of $7.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TAC?
Our models span a range for TransAlta Corp: cautious scenario $3.32, base $7.05, optimistic $11.18 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $11.77). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of TAC?
The PEG ratio of TransAlta Corp is 6.98 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of TransAlta Corp (TAC)?
Balance-sheet figures for TransAlta Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −11.1%, debt of 2.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TAC from its 52-week high?
TransAlta Corp trades at $11.77, about 33% below its 52-week high of $17.54 and 2% above the low of $11.50 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TransAlta Corp?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Constellation Energy Corporation, Vistra Corp, Adani Power Limited, CGN Power Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TransAlta Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $11.77, calculated fair value $7.05 (−40%), Quality Score 38/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TAC calculated?
We run TransAlta Corp through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.05, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. TransAlta Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TransAlta Corp (TAC)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $11.77. Our model-based fair value is $7.05, about −40% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TransAlta Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($11.18). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($3.32 to $11.18). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of TransAlta Corp (TAC) come from?
Earnings per share at TransAlta Corp grew +16.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.7 %, EBIT margin +7.5 %, tax rate +2.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of TransAlta Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of TransAlta Corp (TAC)?
The market capitalisation of TransAlta Corp is $4.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TransAlta Corp (TAC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TransAlta Corp is 2.03 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TransAlta Corp (TAC)?
Earnings per share at TransAlta Corp are $−0.5300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of TransAlta Corp (TAC)?
The dividend yield of TransAlta Corp is 2.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of TransAlta Corp (TAC)?
The net margin of TransAlta Corp is −5.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TransAlta Corp (TAC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TransAlta Corp is −11.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TransAlta Corp (TAC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TransAlta Corp is 3.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TransAlta Corp (TAC)?
The operating margin of TransAlta Corp is 18.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TransAlta Corp (TAC)?
Revenue at TransAlta Corp is growing −25.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TransAlta Corp (TAC)?
Earnings per share at TransAlta Corp are growing −71.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does TransAlta Corp (TAC) carry?
The net debt of TransAlta Corp is C$4.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026