TAG Oil Ltd (TAOIF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of TAG Oil Ltd $0.03, price $0.06, upside -50.0%, quality 12 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
TAG Oil Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas in Canada, the Middle East, and North Africa. The company holds interest in the Badr Oil Field, a 26,000-acre concession located in the Western Desert, Egypt. The company was formerly known as Durum Cons. Energy Corp.
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TAG Oil Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas in Canada, the Middle East, and North Africa. The company holds interest in the Badr Oil Field, a 26,000-acre concession located in the Western Desert, Egypt. The company was formerly known as Durum Cons. Energy Corp. and changed its name to TAG Oil Ltd. in June 2002. TAG Oil Ltd. was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
TAG Oil Ltd (TAOIF) currently trades at $0.0600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0300, 50.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 12/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
TAG Oil Ltd reported revenue of C$864K in FY2025 versus C$16.4M in FY2020, a compound −44.5%/yr. Reported net income was −C$6.3M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $20.5M · P/S ratio 15.0 · EPS (TTM) $−0.0100 · Net margin −256% · Return on equity −7.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −14.2% · Operating margin −341% · Revenue (TTM) $1.4M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −50%, TAOIF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0300Fair Value $0.0300Bull $0.0300
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−44.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −31.0% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.4%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
9.6% (2020) → −994.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0300 versus a price of $0.0600, about −50% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TAOIF?
Our model-based fair value for TAG Oil Ltd is $0.0300 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.0600.
What is the quality score of TAOIF?
TAG Oil Ltd has a Quality Score of 12/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TAG Oil Ltd (TAOIF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0300 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TAG Oil Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0300, about −50% upside versus a price of $0.0600 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TAG Oil Ltd (TAOIF)?
TAG Oil Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.4M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of TAG Oil Ltd (TAOIF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TAG Oil Ltd it is $0.0300 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.0600. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TAG Oil Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TAOIF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.0600, fair value $0.0300, a gap of about −50% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TAOIF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.0600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0300). For TAG Oil Ltd the two are $0.0300 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TAG Oil Ltd worth?
The market values TAG Oil Ltd at about $20.5M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.0600; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0300 per share.
How far is TAOIF from its 52-week high?
TAG Oil Ltd trades at $0.0600, about 34% below its 52-week high of $0.0906 and 38% above the low of $0.0435 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TAG Oil Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TAG Oil Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.0600, calculated fair value $0.0300 (−50%), Quality Score 12/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TAOIF calculated?
We run TAG Oil Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. TAG Oil Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TAG Oil Ltd (TAOIF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.0600. Our model-based fair value is $0.0300, about −50% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TAG Oil Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.0300). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (12/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of TAG Oil Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of TAG Oil Ltd (TAOIF)?
The market capitalisation of TAG Oil Ltd is $20.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TAG Oil Ltd (TAOIF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TAG Oil Ltd is 15.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TAG Oil Ltd (TAOIF)?
Earnings per share at TAG Oil Ltd are $−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of TAG Oil Ltd (TAOIF)?
The net margin of TAG Oil Ltd is −256% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TAG Oil Ltd (TAOIF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TAG Oil Ltd is −7.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TAG Oil Ltd (TAOIF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TAG Oil Ltd is −14.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TAG Oil Ltd (TAOIF)?
The operating margin of TAG Oil Ltd is −341% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TAG Oil Ltd (TAOIF)?
Revenue at TAG Oil Ltd is growing −5.5% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TAG Oil Ltd (TAOIF)?
Earnings per share at TAG Oil Ltd are growing +100% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does TAG Oil Ltd (TAOIF) generate?
The free cash flow of TAG Oil Ltd is −$23.9M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026