Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC VND 37,284, price VND 31,600, upside +18.0%, quality 74 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 15,443 VND – 38,060 VND · fair‑value band 26,067 VND – 50,535 VND · the 31,600 VND price screens below the 37,284 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Thac Ba Hydropower Joint Stock Company produces and trades in electricity in Vietnam. It also provides repairment, maintenance, and renovation services for equipment of hydropower plants. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Lao Cai, Vietnam.
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Thac Ba Hydropower Joint Stock Company produces and trades in electricity in Vietnam. It also provides repairment, maintenance, and renovation services for equipment of hydropower plants. The company was founded in 1971 and is headquartered in Lao Cai, Vietnam. Thac Ba Hydropower Joint Stock Company operates as a subsidiary of R Refrigeration Electrical Engineering Corporation.
Stock analysis
Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC) currently trades at 31,600 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 37,284 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 15.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 48,176 VND per share, and 13 of the 26 models we run sit above the 31,600 VND price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 12,326 VND, and 13 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 26,067 VND (bear) to 50,535 VND (bull), the price of 31,600 VND sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Thac Ba Hydropower JSC reported revenue of 563B VND in FY2025 versus 495B VND in FY2021, a compound +3.2%/yr. Reported net income was 192B VND in FY2025, compounding +3.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.0T VND · P/E ratio 8.7 · P/S ratio 2.97 · EPS (TTM) 3,632 VND · Dividend yield 8.9% · Net margin 34.1% · Return on equity 21.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 18.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at 18%, TBC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 26,067 VNDFair Value 37,284 VNDBull 50,535 VND
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (2,667 VND per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
’19
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+11.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.53% → 49%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Vietnam: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 77 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score74 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+18% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)22% · Top 25%
Return on assets12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)38% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)60% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth48% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)8.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.06× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Thac Ba Hydropower JSC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TBC
Frequently asked questions
Is Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 37,284 VND versus a price of 31,600 VND, about +18% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TBC?
Our model-based fair value for Thac Ba Hydropower JSC is 37,284 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 31,600 VND.
What is the quality score of TBC?
Thac Ba Hydropower JSC has a Quality Score of 74/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 37,284 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 26,067 VND, optimistic scenario 50,535 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Thac Ba Hydropower JSC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 37,284 VND, about +18% upside versus a price of 31,600 VND (undervalued). Cautious scenario 26,067 VND, optimistic scenario 50,535 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC)?
Thac Ba Hydropower JSC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 612B VND (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Thac Ba Hydropower JSC pay a dividend?
Thac Ba Hydropower JSC currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.86% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Thac Ba Hydropower JSC would have to grow free cash flow by +5.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TBC use?
Our models discount Thac Ba Hydropower JSC at 14.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.02, country premium for Vietnam. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Thac Ba Hydropower JSC that is +5.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Thac Ba Hydropower JSC grew +1.1 % a year. The price currently implies +5.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +0.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (+5.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.49 %: that much free cash flow Thac Ba Hydropower JSC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Thac Ba Hydropower JSC it is 37,284 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 31,600 VND. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Thac Ba Hydropower JSC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TBC trades below its calculated fair value: price 31,600 VND, fair value 37,284 VND, a gap of about +18% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TBC?
No. The price is what the market pays today (31,600 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (37,284 VND). For Thac Ba Hydropower JSC the two are 5,684 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Thac Ba Hydropower JSC worth?
The market values Thac Ba Hydropower JSC at about 2.0T VND (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 31,600 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 37,284 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TBC?
Our models span a range for Thac Ba Hydropower JSC: cautious scenario 26,067 VND, base 37,284 VND, optimistic 50,535 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 31,600 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TBC?
Thac Ba Hydropower JSC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 37,284 VND is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 3.3, EV/EBITDA 5.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 21.8%, debt of 0.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 74/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TBC from its 52-week high?
Thac Ba Hydropower JSC trades at 31,600 VND, about 12% below its 52-week high of 35,733 VND and 2% above the low of 31,057 VND (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 37,284 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Thac Ba Hydropower JSC?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Constellation Energy Corporation, Vistra Corp, Adani Power Limited, CGN Power Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Thac Ba Hydropower JSC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 31,600 VND, calculated fair value 37,284 VND (+18%), Quality Score 74/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TBC calculated?
We run Thac Ba Hydropower JSC through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 37,284 VND, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Thac Ba Hydropower JSC currently trades 18 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 31,600 VND. Our model-based fair value is 37,284 VND, about +18% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Thac Ba Hydropower JSC right now?
A fairly wide model range (26,067 VND to 50,535 VND) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC
How large is the market capitalisation of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC)?
The market capitalisation of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC is 2.0T VND. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC is 2.97 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC)?
Earnings per share at Thac Ba Hydropower JSC are 3,632 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC)?
The dividend yield of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC is 8.9% (payout 77.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC)?
The net margin of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC is 34.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC is 21.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC is 18.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC)?
The operating margin of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC is 59.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC)?
Revenue at Thac Ba Hydropower JSC is growing +48.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC)?
Earnings per share at Thac Ba Hydropower JSC are growing +146% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Thac Ba Hydropower JSC (TBC) carry?
The net debt of Thac Ba Hydropower JSC is 10.4B VND (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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