Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $17.8B
Talen Energy Corporation
TLN · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $43.34 to $44.67 (+3.1%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −5.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 87% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($44.67). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
38‑month range $46.00 – $445.84 · fair‑value band $37.00 – $44.67 · the $347.71 price screens above the $44.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) currently trades at $347.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $44.67, implying the stock looks roughly 87.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Talen Energy Corporation generated revenue of $3.2B at a net margin of -0.7%. Revenue grew 96.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -1.9%. Net debt stands at $6.1B. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $37.00 (bear case) to $44.67 (bull case); at $347.71, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at -87%, TLN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($51.64) versus Asset-Based ($15.32). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Talen Energy Corporation, an independent power producer and infrastructure company, produces and sells electricity, capacity, and ancillary services into wholesale power markets in the United States. The company's plants generate power using a variety of fuels, such as nuclear, fossil, oil, natural gas, and coal power plants.
Full company description
Talen Energy Corporation, an independent power producer and infrastructure company, produces and sells electricity, capacity, and ancillary services into wholesale power markets in the United States. The company's plants generate power using a variety of fuels, such as nuclear, fossil, oil, natural gas, and coal power plants. It owns and operates approximately 13.1 GW of power infrastructure. Talen Energy Corporation was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Talen Energy Corporation reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2021, a compound +9.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$219M in FY2025.
TLN screens 87% overvalued. Compare with Constellation Energy Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- All You Need to Know About Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) Rating Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Zacks Industry Outlook Highlights Bloom Energy, Talen Energy and Montauk Renewables
- Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) Reports Next Week: Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth
- Why Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) is Poised to Beat Earnings Estimates Again
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Independent Power Producers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Constellation Energy Corporation CEG | $257.57 | $89.08 | -65% |
| Vistra Corp VST | $158.86 | $47.59 | -70% |
| Adani Power Limited ADANIPOWER | ₹218.45 | ₹75.57 | -65% |
| CGN Power Co 003816 | ¥3.88 | ¥3.13 | -19% |
| NRG Energy, Inc NRG | $137.90 | $56.02 | -59% |
| Gulf Development Public Company GULF | 67.50 THB | 40.44 THB | -40% |
| Adani Energy Solutions Limited ADANIENSOL | ₹1,730 | ₹342.02 | -80% |
| Datang International Power Generation Co 601991 | ¥5.80 | ¥4.95 | -15% |
| Power Assets Holdings 0006 | HK$58.45 | HK$31.90 | -45% |
| Huaneng Power International, Inc 600011 | ¥6.75 | ¥10.46 | +55% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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