Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Talen Energy Corporation stock $12.73, price $339, that is 96.2% below the price, quality 45 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 8 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
41‑month range $46.00 – $445.84 · fair‑value band $2.55 – $50.92 · the $338.64 price screens above the $12.73 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Talen Energy Corporation, an independent power producer and infrastructure company, produces and sells electricity, capacity, and ancillary services into wholesale power markets in the United States.
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The company's plants generate power using a variety of fuels, such as nuclear, fossil, oil, natural gas, and coal power plants. It owns and operates approximately 13.1 GW of power infrastructure. Talen Energy Corporation was incorporated in 2014 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) currently trades at $338.64, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.73, 96% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $26.90 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $338.64 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $12.73, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $2.55 (bear) to $50.92 (bull), the price of $338.64 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Talen Energy Corporation reported revenue of $2.5B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2021, a compound +9.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$219M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $15.5B Large · P/S ratio 3.07 · EPS (TTM) $−5.41 · Net margin −5.7% · Return on equity −16.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.9% (5-year average) · Operating margin 17.4% · Revenue (TTM) $4.5B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 24 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −96%, TLN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($5.76 to $47.32). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$2.55Fair Value $12.73Bull$50.92
Price $338.64 · Downside -96.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $988,000 and none bought.
SaleGizman I AbbasDirector2,600 shares at $380.00$988,000Jun 15, 2026
Plus 18 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.59/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−8.9% (2020) → −2.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+23.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.6% a year for the price and +21.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Limited evidence of a durable advantage stands against strong adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow supported by PJM fundamentals and acquired assets.
Main risk: Providers such as Bloom Energy, Caterpillar or VoltaGrid could capture data center demand faster than Talen due to PJM interconnection delays, limiting long-term contracts and pressuring wholesale margins.
Bull case: Talen could secure more behind-the-meter co-location deals and influence PJM rules in its favor through coalitions, locking in higher contracted cash flows from data center demand.
Bear case: If distributed solutions and adverse PJM regulations prevail, Talen might lose significant market share in high-growth segments and face constrained operations or lower realized prices across its core fleet.
Talen delivered strong adjusted EBITDA and free cash flow in the third quarter while reaffirming 2026 targets and introducing significantly higher 2027 guidance supported by PJM fundamentals and acquired assets. At the same time GAAP net income came in below expectations due to derivative losses and financing costs, and the company faces ongoing regulatory uncertainty around large-load connections. Will the expanding repurchase program and durable cash generation prove more decisive than earnings volatility and policy risks?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 77 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−96.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−2.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−5.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)17.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)96.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity6.21× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Talen Energy Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TLN
Frequently asked questions
Is Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.73 versus a price of $338.64, about 96% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TLN?
Our model-based fair value for Talen Energy Corporation is $12.73 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $338.64.
What is the quality score of TLN?
Talen Energy Corporation has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Talen Energy Corporation (TLN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.73 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.55, optimistic scenario $50.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Talen Energy Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.73, about 96% lower versus a price of $338.64 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.55, optimistic scenario $50.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Talen Energy Corporation (TLN)?
Talen Energy Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.5B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
What growth is priced into Talen Energy Corporation (TLN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Talen Energy Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +30.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.1 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TLN use?
Our models discount Talen Energy Corporation at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.58, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Talen Energy Corporation that is +30.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Talen Energy Corporation grew +7.1 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +30.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Talen Energy Corporation (+30.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Talen Energy Corporation (TLN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.63 %: that much free cash flow Talen Energy Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Talen Energy Corporation (TLN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Talen Energy Corporation it is $12.73 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $338.64. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Talen Energy Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, TLN trades above its calculated fair value: price $338.64, fair value $12.73, a gap of about −96% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TLN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($338.64); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.73). For Talen Energy Corporation the two are $325.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Talen Energy Corporation worth?
The market values Talen Energy Corporation at about $15.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $338.64; our models calculate a fair value of $12.73 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TLN?
Our models span a range for Talen Energy Corporation: cautious scenario $2.55, base $12.73, optimistic $50.92 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $338.64). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Talen Energy Corporation (TLN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Talen Energy Corporation (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity −16.5%, debt of 6.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TLN from its 52-week high?
Talen Energy Corporation trades at $338.64, about 23% below its 52-week high of $438.12 and 20% above the low of $282.15 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.73 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Talen Energy Corporation?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Constellation Energy Corporation, Vistra Corp, Adani Power Limited, CGN Power Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Talen Energy Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $338.64, calculated fair value $12.73 (−96%), Quality Score 45/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TLN calculated?
We run Talen Energy Corporation through 8 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $12.73 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Talen Energy Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Talen Energy Corporation (TLN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $338.64. Our model-based fair value is $12.73, about 96% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Talen Energy Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($50.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (45/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($2.55 to $50.92). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Talen Energy Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Talen Energy Corporation (TLN)?
The market capitalisation of Talen Energy Corporation is $15.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Talen Energy Corporation (TLN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Talen Energy Corporation is 3.07 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Talen Energy Corporation (TLN)?
Earnings per share at Talen Energy Corporation are $−5.41. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Talen Energy Corporation (TLN)?
The net margin of Talen Energy Corporation is −5.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Talen Energy Corporation (TLN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Talen Energy Corporation is −16.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Talen Energy Corporation (TLN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Talen Energy Corporation is −0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Talen Energy Corporation (TLN)?
The operating margin of Talen Energy Corporation is 17.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Talen Energy Corporation (TLN)?
Revenue at Talen Energy Corporation is growing +96.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Talen Energy Corporation (TLN)?
Earnings per share at Talen Energy Corporation are growing −32.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Talen Energy Corporation (TLN) carry?
The net debt of Talen Energy Corporation is $6.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 14.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Nov 6, 2026