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Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBNRL) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Tamboran Resources Corporation $0.18, price $0.12, upside +41.9%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Energy · US

TR Tamboran Resources Corporation logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Tamboran Resources Corporation

TBNRL · US

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value $0.1750 · Undervalued (+41.9%)
!Quality 37/100
!negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (0/6)
!Narrow moat 5/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$0.2450 $0.0251 Fair Value $0.1750 Sep 2022 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

48‑month range $0.0251 – $0.2450 · fair‑value band $0.1306 – $0.2611 · the $0.1233 price screens below the $0.1750 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Tamboran Resources Corporation, a natural gas company, engages in developing unconventional gas resources in the northern territory of Australia.

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Tamboran Resources Corporation, a natural gas company, engages in developing unconventional gas resources in the northern territory of Australia. Its assets include a 25% non-operated working interest in EP 161; a 38.75% working interest in EPs 76, 98, and 117; and a 100% working interest in EPs 136 and 143, as well as EP (A) 197, located in the Betaloo Basin. Tamboran Resources Corporation was founded in 2009 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.

Stock analysis

Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBNRL) currently trades at $0.1233, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1750, implying the stock looks roughly 29.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 76/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: $0.1306 (bear) to $0.2611 (bull), the price of $0.1233 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Tamboran Resources Corporation reported revenue of −$3.3B in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2022. Reported net income was −$36.9B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $1.3B · EPS (TTM) $−0.0100 · Return on equity −8.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −8.3% · Free cash flow −$29.6B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 40% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 42%, TBNRL screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $0.1306 Fair Value $0.1750 Bull $0.2611
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) $0.1306 $0.1750 $0.2612 51
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.1306 $0.1750 $0.2612 51

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55

Profitability 20
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 38
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 73
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 57
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 52
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 64
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 63
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Compare Tamboran Resources Corporation with another stock

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 264 stocks

Beats the industry median on 0/5 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 45 · Below median
Fair Value upside −83.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −3.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 0.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0.0% · Below median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
ConocoPhillips explores for, COP $127.06 $91.42 −28%
CNOOC Limited 0883 HK$23.40 HK$39.91 +71%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ $47.55 $52.31 +10%
EOG Resources, Inc EOG $137.76 $165.02 +20%
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY $57.84 $33.18 −43%
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $46.73 $51.40 +10%
Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG $185.23 $243.76 +32%
Woodside Energy Group WDS A$31.48 A$23.87 −24%
EQT Corporation EQT $50.09 $55.10 +10%
Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL $336.46 $317.06 −6%

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Tamboran Resources Corporation · Fair Value
$0.1750 +30%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tamboran Resources Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TBNRL

Frequently asked questions

Is Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBNRL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.1750 versus a price of $0.1233, about +42% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TBNRL?
Our model-based fair value for Tamboran Resources Corporation is $0.1750 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.1233.
What is the quality score of TBNRL?
Tamboran Resources Corporation has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBNRL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.1750 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1306, optimistic scenario $0.2611. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tamboran Resources Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.1750, about +42% upside versus a price of $0.1233 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.1306, optimistic scenario $0.2611. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBNRL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tamboran Resources Corporation it is $0.1750 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.1233. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tamboran Resources Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TBNRL trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.1233, fair value $0.1750, a gap of about +42% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TBNRL?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.1233); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.1750). For Tamboran Resources Corporation the two are $0.0517 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tamboran Resources Corporation worth?
The market values Tamboran Resources Corporation at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.1233; our models calculate a fair value of $0.1750 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TBNRL?
Our models span a range for Tamboran Resources Corporation: cautious scenario $0.1306, base $0.1750, optimistic $0.2611 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.1233). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBNRL)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tamboran Resources Corporation (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −8.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TBNRL from its 52-week high?
Tamboran Resources Corporation trades at $0.1233, about 40% below its 52-week high of $0.2054 and 40% above the low of $0.0880 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.1750 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tamboran Resources Corporation?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tamboran Resources Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.1233, calculated fair value $0.1750 (+42%), Quality Score 37/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TBNRL calculated?
We run Tamboran Resources Corporation through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.1750, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tamboran Resources Corporation currently trades 30 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBNRL)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was $0.1233. Our model-based fair value is $0.1750, about +42% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tamboran Resources Corporation right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.1306). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($0.1306 to $0.2611) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Tamboran Resources Corporation

How large is the market capitalisation of Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBNRL)?
The market capitalisation of Tamboran Resources Corporation is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBNRL)?
Earnings per share at Tamboran Resources Corporation are $−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBNRL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tamboran Resources Corporation is −8.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBNRL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tamboran Resources Corporation is −8.3% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Tamboran Resources Corporation (TBNRL) generate?
The free cash flow of Tamboran Resources Corporation is −$29.6B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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