Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of Tellusgruppen AB SEK 6.43, price SEK 6.70, upside -4.1%, quality 52 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 3.56 – kr 8.74 · fair‑value band kr 4.50 – kr 8.36 · the kr 6.70 price screens above the kr 6.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Tellusgruppen AB (publ), through its subsidiaries, operates in the education and childcare sectors in Sweden. The company operates preschools in Stockholm and Uppsala counties under the Tellusbarn, as well as primary schools under the Robinson and Thea names.
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Tellusgruppen AB (publ), through its subsidiaries, operates in the education and childcare sectors in Sweden. The company operates preschools in Stockholm and Uppsala counties under the Tellusbarn, as well as primary schools under the Robinson and Thea names. It also provides childcare and educational services; mother tongue teaching and study guidance to primary schools under the Omniglot name; and babysitting services under the Nanny by Tellus. The company was founded in 2007 and is based in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS) currently trades at kr 6.70, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 6.43, implying the stock looks roughly 4.3% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of kr 38.77 per share, and 13 of the 23 models we run sit above the kr 6.70 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at kr 1.51, and 10 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 4.50 (bear) to kr 8.36 (bull), the price of kr 6.70 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Tellusgruppen AB reported revenue of 489M SEK in FY2025 versus 245M SEK in FY2021, a compound +18.9%/yr. Reported net income was 4.6M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 131M SEK (≈ $13.2M) · P/E ratio 24.8 · P/S ratio 0.23 · EPS (TTM) kr 0.2700 · Dividend yield 1.9% · Net margin 0.9% · Return on equity 20.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −10.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 17% fair-value upside, at −4%, TELLUS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 4.50Fair Value kr 6.43Bull kr 8.36
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.1028 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.9%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → −4%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−15.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −17.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Education & Training Services · 142 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Below median
Fair Value upside−4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)21% · Top 25%
Return on assets3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)1% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.9% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity6.34× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tellusgruppen AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TELLUS
Frequently asked questions
Is Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 6.43 versus a price of kr 6.70, about −4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TELLUS?
Our model-based fair value for Tellusgruppen AB is kr 6.43 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 6.70.
What is the quality score of TELLUS?
Tellusgruppen AB has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 6.43 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 4.50, optimistic scenario kr 8.36. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tellusgruppen AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 6.43, about −4% upside versus a price of kr 6.70 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario kr 4.50, optimistic scenario kr 8.36. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS)?
Tellusgruppen AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 496M SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Tellusgruppen AB pay a dividend?
Tellusgruppen AB currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.94% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tellusgruppen AB would have to grow free cash flow by -15.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +21.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TELLUS use?
Our models discount Tellusgruppen AB at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tellusgruppen AB that is -15.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tellusgruppen AB grew +21.2 % a year. The price currently implies -15.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tellusgruppen AB (-15.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.30 %: that much free cash flow Tellusgruppen AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tellusgruppen AB it is kr 6.43 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 6.70. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tellusgruppen AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TELLUS trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 6.70, fair value kr 6.43, a gap of about −4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TELLUS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 6.70); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 6.43). For Tellusgruppen AB the two are kr 0.2740 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tellusgruppen AB worth?
The market values Tellusgruppen AB at about 131M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 6.70; our models calculate a fair value of kr 6.43 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TELLUS?
Our models span a range for Tellusgruppen AB: cautious scenario kr 4.50, base kr 6.43, optimistic kr 8.36 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 6.70). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TELLUS?
Tellusgruppen AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 6.43 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 0.3, EV/EBITDA 3.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tellusgruppen AB (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 20.9%, debt of 6.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TELLUS from its 52-week high?
Tellusgruppen AB trades at kr 6.70, about 9% below its 52-week high of kr 7.33 and 62% above the low of kr 4.14 (as of Sep 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 6.43 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tellusgruppen AB?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value New Oriental Education & Technology Group, TAL Education Group, Laureate Education, Inc, Grand Canyon Education, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tellusgruppen AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 6.70, calculated fair value kr 6.43 (−4%), Quality Score 52/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TELLUS calculated?
We run Tellusgruppen AB through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 6.43, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Tellusgruppen AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was kr 6.70. Our model-based fair value is kr 6.43, about −4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tellusgruppen AB right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (kr 4.50 to kr 8.36) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Tellusgruppen AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS)?
The market capitalisation of Tellusgruppen AB is 131M SEK (≈ $13.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tellusgruppen AB is 0.23 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS)?
Earnings per share at Tellusgruppen AB are kr 0.2700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS)?
The dividend yield of Tellusgruppen AB is 1.9% (payout 48.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS)?
The net margin of Tellusgruppen AB is 0.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tellusgruppen AB is 20.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tellusgruppen AB is −10.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS)?
The operating margin of Tellusgruppen AB is 1.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS)?
Revenue at Tellusgruppen AB is growing +5.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS)?
Earnings per share at Tellusgruppen AB are growing +136% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tellusgruppen AB (TELLUS) carry?
The net debt of Tellusgruppen AB is 21.8M SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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