Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Tethys Petroleum Limited $0.68, price $0.86, upside -20.9%, quality 76 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.2892 – $1.53 · fair‑value band $0.3600 – $1.25 · the $0.8600 price screens above the $0.6800 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Tethys Petroleum Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of crude oil and natural gas fields in Kazakhstan. It also produces and sells crude oil and natural gas. The company was formerly known as Tethys Petroleum Investments Limited and changed its name to Tethys Petroleum Limited in September 2006.
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Tethys Petroleum Limited engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of crude oil and natural gas fields in Kazakhstan. It also produces and sells crude oil and natural gas. The company was formerly known as Tethys Petroleum Investments Limited and changed its name to Tethys Petroleum Limited in September 2006. Tethys Petroleum Limited was incorporated in 2003 and is based in Grand Cayman, the Cayman Islands.
Stock analysis
Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF) currently trades at $0.8600, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6800, 20.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $1.27 per share, and 5 of the 26 models we run sit above the $0.8600 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.0900, and 21 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.3600 (bear) to $1.25 (bull), the price of $0.8600 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Tethys Petroleum Limited reported revenue of $26.4M in FY2025 versus $15.9M in FY2021, a compound +13.5%/yr. Reported net income was $6.7M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $107M · P/E ratio 10.8 · P/S ratio 2.71 · EPS (TTM) $0.0800 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 25.2% · Return on equity 29.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 21.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 26% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −21%, TETHF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.3600Fair Value $0.6800Bull $1.25
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0605 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+73.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−26.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.8% a year
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−8.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−14% → 31%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 10.8%/yr over ~10Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +23.0% a year for the price.
Compare Tethys Petroleum Limited with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 284 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−16.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)29.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets9.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)27.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)30.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth104.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.13× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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Is Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.6800 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.8600, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TETHF?
Our model-based fair value for Tethys Petroleum Limited is $0.6800 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $0.8600.
What is the quality score of TETHF?
Tethys Petroleum Limited has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.6800 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3600, optimistic scenario $1.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tethys Petroleum Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.6800, about −21% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $0.8600 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.3600, optimistic scenario $1.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF)?
Tethys Petroleum Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $30.5M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Tethys Petroleum Limited pay a dividend?
Tethys Petroleum Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.91% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tethys Petroleum Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +25.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TETHF use?
Our models discount Tethys Petroleum Limited at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tethys Petroleum Limited that is +25.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tethys Petroleum Limited grew +15.2 % a year. The price currently implies +25.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tethys Petroleum Limited (+25.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.08 %: that much free cash flow Tethys Petroleum Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tethys Petroleum Limited it is $0.6800 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.8600. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tethys Petroleum Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TETHF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.8600, fair value $0.6800, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TETHF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.8600); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.6800). For Tethys Petroleum Limited the two are $0.1800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tethys Petroleum Limited worth?
The market values Tethys Petroleum Limited at about $107M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.8600; our models calculate a fair value of $0.6800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TETHF?
Our models span a range for Tethys Petroleum Limited: cautious scenario $0.3600, base $0.6800, optimistic $1.25 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.8600). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TETHF?
Tethys Petroleum Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.6800 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.5, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 6.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tethys Petroleum Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 29.0%, debt of 0.13 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TETHF from its 52-week high?
Tethys Petroleum Limited trades at $0.8600, about 32% below its 52-week high of $1.27 and 26% above the low of $0.6810 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.6800 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tethys Petroleum Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tethys Petroleum Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.8600, calculated fair value $0.6800 (−21%), Quality Score 76/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TETHF calculated?
We run Tethys Petroleum Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.6800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tethys Petroleum Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $0.8600. Our model-based fair value is $0.6800, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tethys Petroleum Limited right now?
A high-quality business (quality 76/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The model range is unusually wide ($0.3600 to $1.25). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Tethys Petroleum Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF)?
The market capitalisation of Tethys Petroleum Limited is $107M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tethys Petroleum Limited is 2.71 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF)?
Earnings per share at Tethys Petroleum Limited are $0.0800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF)?
The dividend yield of Tethys Petroleum Limited is 0.9% (payout 9.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF)?
The net margin of Tethys Petroleum Limited is 25.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tethys Petroleum Limited is 29.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tethys Petroleum Limited is 21.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF)?
The operating margin of Tethys Petroleum Limited is 30.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF)?
Revenue at Tethys Petroleum Limited is growing +104% versus a year earlier (3y avg −26.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF)?
Earnings per share at Tethys Petroleum Limited are growing +628% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Tethys Petroleum Limited (TETHF) hold?
Tethys Petroleum Limited holds more cash than debt, $8.1M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026