Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Timbercreek Financial Corp C$5.36, price C$5.27, upside +1.7%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$4.41 – C$7.04 · fair‑value band C$4.06 – C$6.77 · the C$5.27 price screens below the C$5.36 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Timbercreek Financial Corp. provides shorter-duration structured financing solutions to commercial real estate investors in Canada. The company focuses on lending against income-producing real estate properties, including multi-residential, retail, and office properties for urban markets. Timbercreek Financial Corp.
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Timbercreek Financial Corp. provides shorter-duration structured financing solutions to commercial real estate investors in Canada. The company focuses on lending against income-producing real estate properties, including multi-residential, retail, and office properties for urban markets. Timbercreek Financial Corp. was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Stock analysis
Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF) currently trades at C$5.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$5.36, implying the stock looks roughly 1.7% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of C$5.74 per share, and 6 of the 9 models we run sit above the C$5.27 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at C$2.82, and 3 of the 9 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$4.06 (bear) to C$6.77 (bull), the price of C$5.27 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Timbercreek Financial Corp reported revenue of C$147M in FY2025 versus C$117M in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was C$34.5M in FY2025, compounding −4.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$497M (≈ $352M) · P/E ratio 17.0 · P/S ratio 3.97 · EPS (TTM) C$0.3100 · Dividend yield 13.2% · Net margin 23.4% · Return on equity 3.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 17% fair-value upside, at 2%, TF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$4.06Fair Value C$5.36Bull C$6.77
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.63/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−8.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.6% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+14.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+1.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)13.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−4% vs −5%, steady
Profit margin 2009 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.83% → 45%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−3.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +18.1% a year for the price and −5.4% for the forecasts.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Mortgage Finance · 93 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)4% · Below median
Return on assets1% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)58% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)80% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−15% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)13.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.96× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Mortgage Finance median · lower = cheaper
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Is Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$5.36 versus a price of C$5.27, about +2% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TF?
Our model-based fair value for Timbercreek Financial Corp is C$5.36 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$5.27.
What is the quality score of TF?
Timbercreek Financial Corp has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$5.36 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$4.06, optimistic scenario C$6.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Timbercreek Financial Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$5.36, about +2% upside versus a price of C$5.27 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario C$4.06, optimistic scenario C$6.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Timbercreek Financial Corp pay a dividend?
Timbercreek Financial Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 13.17% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Timbercreek Financial Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +20.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.2 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TF use?
Our models discount Timbercreek Financial Corp at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.91, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Timbercreek Financial Corp that is +20.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Timbercreek Financial Corp grew +3.2 % a year. The price currently implies +20.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Timbercreek Financial Corp (+20.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.80 %: that much free cash flow Timbercreek Financial Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Timbercreek Financial Corp it is C$5.36 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of C$5.27. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Timbercreek Financial Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TF trades below its calculated fair value: price C$5.27, fair value C$5.36, a gap of about +2% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$5.27); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$5.36). For Timbercreek Financial Corp the two are C$0.0900 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Timbercreek Financial Corp worth?
The market values Timbercreek Financial Corp at about C$497M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is C$5.27; our models calculate a fair value of C$5.36 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TF?
Our models span a range for Timbercreek Financial Corp: cautious scenario C$4.06, base C$5.36, optimistic C$6.77 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price C$5.27). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TF?
Timbercreek Financial Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 17.0 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$5.36 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 8.0, EV/EBITDA 14.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Timbercreek Financial Corp (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 3.8%, debt of 0.96 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TF from its 52-week high?
Timbercreek Financial Corp trades at C$5.27, about 24% below its 52-week high of C$6.97 and at the low of C$5.27 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$5.36 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Timbercreek Financial Corp?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation, Rocket Companies, Inc, Federal National Mortgage Association, Bajaj Housing Finance Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Timbercreek Financial Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price C$5.27, calculated fair value C$5.36 (+2%), Quality Score 65/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TF calculated?
We run Timbercreek Financial Corp through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$5.36, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Timbercreek Financial Corp currently trades 2 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was C$5.27. Our model-based fair value is C$5.36, about +2% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Timbercreek Financial Corp right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF) come from?
Earnings per share at Timbercreek Financial Corp grew +8.0 % a year from 2013 to 2023. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.8 %, EBIT margin −2.5 %, tax rate −3.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +7.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Timbercreek Financial Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF)?
The market capitalisation of Timbercreek Financial Corp is C$497M (≈ $352M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Timbercreek Financial Corp is 3.97 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF)?
Earnings per share at Timbercreek Financial Corp are C$0.3100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 17.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF)?
The dividend yield of Timbercreek Financial Corp is 13.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF)?
The net margin of Timbercreek Financial Corp is 23.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Timbercreek Financial Corp is 3.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Timbercreek Financial Corp is 4.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF)?
The operating margin of Timbercreek Financial Corp is 79.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF)?
Revenue at Timbercreek Financial Corp is growing −14.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF)?
Earnings per share at Timbercreek Financial Corp are growing −39.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF) carry?
The net debt of Timbercreek Financial Corp is C$1.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 38.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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