Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · CA · Market cap C$530M
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 10 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Share price −4.6% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 12% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$5.41). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$4.46 – C$7.11 · fair‑value band C$4.06 – C$5.41 · the C$6.17 price screens above the C$5.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF) currently trades at C$6.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$5.41, implying the stock looks roughly 12.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Timbercreek Financial Corp generated revenue of C$47.7M at a net margin of 63.0%. Revenue declined 33.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.5%. Net debt stands at C$1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$4.06 (bear case) to C$5.41 (bull case); at C$6.17, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at -25% fair-value upside, at -12%, TF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 10 models by family
Widest divergence: Economic Profit (C$5.74) versus Asset-Based (C$5.36). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Timbercreek Financial Corp. provides shorter-duration structured financing solutions to commercial real estate investors in Canada. The company focuses on lending against income-producing real estate properties, including multi-residential, retail, and office properties for urban markets. Timbercreek Financial Corp.
Full company description
Timbercreek Financial Corp. provides shorter-duration structured financing solutions to commercial real estate investors in Canada. The company focuses on lending against income-producing real estate properties, including multi-residential, retail, and office properties for urban markets. Timbercreek Financial Corp. was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Timbercreek Financial Corp reported revenue of C$147M in FY2025 versus C$117M in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was C$34.5M in FY2025, compounding −4.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +17.4 pp · buybacks/dilution −10.6 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
TF screens 12% overvalued. Compare with Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Timbercreek Financial Announces 2026 Second Quarter Results and Q3/Q4 Dividends
- Timbercreek Financial Declares June 2026 Dividend
Peer Group
Mortgage Finance · 90 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Mortgage Finance median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Mortgage Finance stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation FMCCT | $13.90 | $27.80 | +100% |
| Rocket Companies, Inc RKT | $14.60 | $10.95 | -25% |
| Federal National Mortgage Association FNMAS | $9.55 | $1.93 | -80% |
| Bajaj Housing Finance Limited BAJAJHFL | ₹91.33 | ₹61.48 | -33% |
| PennyMac Financial Services, Inc PFSI | $82.35 | $125.45 | +52% |
| UWM Holdings UWMC | $2.02 | $0.2200 | -89% |
| LIC Housing Finance Limited LICHSGFIN | ₹505.00 | ₹1,010 | +100% |
| PNB Housing Finance Limited PNBHOUSING | ₹1,150 | ₹762.89 | -34% |
| Aadhar Housing Finance Limited AADHARHFC | ₹496.70 | ₹501.16 | +1% |
| Walker & Dunlop, Inc WD | $48.20 | $32.55 | -32% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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