Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Thai Union Feedmill PCL THB 5.25, price THB 6.30, upside -16.7%, quality 65 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
59‑month range 2.38 THB – 6.85 THB · fair‑value band 3.55 THB – 7.42 THB · the 6.30 THB price screens above the 5.25 THB fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Thai Union Feedmill Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes animal feeds in Thailand, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Indonesia, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Shrimp Feed Products, Fish Feed Products, Livestock Feed Products, and Others.
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Thai Union Feedmill Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and distributes animal feeds in Thailand, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Indonesia, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Shrimp Feed Products, Fish Feed Products, Livestock Feed Products, and Others. It offers aquaculture feed products for shrimp, fish, and frog; and livestock feed products comprising chicken, duck, pig, and quail feeds, as well as crab feed products. The company markets its products under the PROFEED, PROFEED TURBO, FCR, AQUAFEED, AQUAFEED LIGHT, EGOFEED, D-GROW, NANAMI, HITECH, KHUNSUEK, NEOPRO, SEASON FAT, TUXEDO, JUMBO FISHO, START MATCH, ONIL, SUPER BLOW, D-LIGHT, GOLDEN FROG, and SILVER FROG brands. It also exports its products to Indonesia, India, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Myanmar, and Laos. The company was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Samut Sakhon, Thailand. Thai Union Feedmill Public Company Limited is a subsidiary of Thai Union Group Public Company Limited.
Stock analysis
Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM) currently trades at 6.30 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 5.25 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 20.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 13.20 THB per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the 6.30 THB price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 1.70 THB, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 3.55 THB (bear) to 7.42 THB (bull), the price of 6.30 THB sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Thai Union Feedmill PCL reported revenue of 6.0B THB in FY2025 versus 4.8B THB in FY2021, a compound +6.0%/yr. Reported net income was 733M THB in FY2025, compounding +36.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 6.3B THB (≈ $188M) · P/E ratio 7.8 · P/S ratio 0.94 · EPS (TTM) 0.8100 THB · Dividend yield 9.5% · Net margin 12.1% · Return on equity 25.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 16% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −17%, TFM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 3.55 THBFair Value 5.25 THBBull 7.42 THB
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1542 THB per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.4% a year
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in THB (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+7.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2% vs −2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 13%
2025 sits 235% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.4% a year for the price.
Compare Thai Union Feedmill PCL with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 296 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−17% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)26% · Top 25%
Return on assets13% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth8% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)9.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Thai Union Feedmill PCL Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TFM
Frequently asked questions
Is Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 5.25 THB versus a price of 6.30 THB, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TFM?
Our model-based fair value for Thai Union Feedmill PCL is 5.25 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 6.30 THB.
What is the quality score of TFM?
Thai Union Feedmill PCL has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 5.25 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 3.55 THB, optimistic scenario 7.42 THB. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Thai Union Feedmill PCL stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 5.25 THB, about −17% upside versus a price of 6.30 THB (overvalued). Cautious scenario 3.55 THB, optimistic scenario 7.42 THB. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM)?
Thai Union Feedmill PCL reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.1B THB (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Thai Union Feedmill PCL pay a dividend?
Thai Union Feedmill PCL currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.52% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Thai Union Feedmill PCL would have to grow free cash flow by +3.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TFM use?
Our models discount Thai Union Feedmill PCL at 13.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for Thailand. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Thai Union Feedmill PCL that is +3.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Thai Union Feedmill PCL grew +7.6 % a year. The price currently implies +3.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Thai Union Feedmill PCL (+3.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.72 %: that much free cash flow Thai Union Feedmill PCL produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Thai Union Feedmill PCL it is 5.25 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 6.30 THB. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Thai Union Feedmill PCL stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TFM trades above its calculated fair value: price 6.30 THB, fair value 5.25 THB, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TFM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (6.30 THB); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (5.25 THB). For Thai Union Feedmill PCL the two are 1.05 THB per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Thai Union Feedmill PCL worth?
The market values Thai Union Feedmill PCL at about 6.3B THB (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 6.30 THB; our models calculate a fair value of 5.25 THB per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TFM?
Our models span a range for Thai Union Feedmill PCL: cautious scenario 3.55 THB, base 5.25 THB, optimistic 7.42 THB per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 6.30 THB). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TFM?
Thai Union Feedmill PCL trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 7.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 5.25 THB is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.5, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 6.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Thai Union Feedmill PCL (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 25.5%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 65/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TFM from its 52-week high?
Thai Union Feedmill PCL trades at 6.30 THB, about 8% below its 52-week high of 6.85 THB and 16% above the low of 5.44 THB (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 5.25 THB is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Thai Union Feedmill PCL?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Thai Union Feedmill PCL stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 6.30 THB, calculated fair value 5.25 THB (−17%), Quality Score 65/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TFM calculated?
We run Thai Union Feedmill PCL through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 5.25 THB, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Thai Union Feedmill PCL itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 6.30 THB. Our model-based fair value is 5.25 THB, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Thai Union Feedmill PCL right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (3.55 THB to 7.42 THB) leaves room in how you read the outcome. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM) come from?
Earnings per share at Thai Union Feedmill PCL grew −3.2 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.9 %, EBIT margin −2.9 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Thai Union Feedmill PCL
How large is the market capitalisation of Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM)?
The market capitalisation of Thai Union Feedmill PCL is 6.3B THB (≈ $188M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Thai Union Feedmill PCL is 0.94 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM)?
Earnings per share at Thai Union Feedmill PCL are 0.8100 THB (price ÷ EPS = P/E 7.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM)?
The dividend yield of Thai Union Feedmill PCL is 9.5% (payout 74.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM)?
The net margin of Thai Union Feedmill PCL is 12.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Thai Union Feedmill PCL is 25.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Thai Union Feedmill PCL is 8.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM)?
The operating margin of Thai Union Feedmill PCL is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM)?
Revenue at Thai Union Feedmill PCL is growing +7.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM)?
Earnings per share at Thai Union Feedmill PCL are growing +11.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Thai Union Feedmill PCL (TFM) hold?
Thai Union Feedmill PCL holds more cash than debt, 437M THB net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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