THK Co. Ltd (THKLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jun 26, 2026: fair value of THK Co. Ltd $14.71, price $31.39, upside -53.1%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.55 – $34.86 · fair‑value band $10.85 – $18.57 · the $31.39 price screens above the $14.71 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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THK Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of mechanical components in Japan, the Americas, Europe, China, and intentionally.
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THK Co., Ltd. engages in the manufacture and sale of mechanical components in Japan, the Americas, Europe, China, and intentionally. The company provides linear motion (LM) guides, ball screws, ball splines, LM guide actuators, cross roller rings/ double row angular contact ring, electric and linear actuators, cam and roller followers, linear bushes, LM strokes, slide packs, slide rails, cross-roller guides and tables, linear ball slides, LM and flat rollers, spline nuts, screw nuts, change nuts, precision linear packs, link balls, rod ends, spherical plain bearings, lubrication accessories, and seismic isolation products. Its products are used in various applications, including machine tools, general industrial machinery, precision instruments, semiconductor and LCD manufacturing equipment, industrial robots, electronic devices, and transport systems, as well as in construction, aerospace, medical and assistive, and other manufacturing industries. The company was incorporated in 1946 and is based in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
THK Co. Ltd (THKLF) currently trades at $31.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $14.71, 53.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $19.05 per share, and 0 of the 15 models we run sit above the $31.39 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $7.67, and 15 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $10.85 (bear) to $18.57 (bull), the price of $31.39 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
THK Co. Ltd reported revenue of ¥241B in FY2025 versus ¥318B in FY2021, a compound −6.7%/yr. Reported net income was −¥70.0B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $4.0B · P/E ratio 55.1 · EPS (TTM) $0.5700 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin −29.1% · Return on equity 5.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5% · Operating margin 11.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −53%, THKLF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $10.85Fair Value $14.71Bull $18.57
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.60/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Revenue growth 20 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
0.7% (2020) → 6.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.2% a year for the price and +6.7% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 789 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−63.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.2% · Below median
Return on assets2.8% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−25.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)11.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−18.7% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)55.1× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)0.02× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF0.2× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 30
PAST (return on equity)21· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)83· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)76· sector 26
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $14.71 versus the last price from Jun 26, 2026 of $31.39, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of THKLF?
Our model-based fair value for THK Co. Ltd is $14.71 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jun 26, 2026): $31.39.
What is the quality score of THKLF?
THK Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for THK Co. Ltd (THKLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $14.71 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.85, optimistic scenario $18.57. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the THK Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $14.71, about −53% upside versus the last price from Jun 26, 2026 of $31.39 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $10.85, optimistic scenario $18.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of THK Co. Ltd (THKLF)?
THK Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥255B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does THK Co. Ltd pay a dividend?
THK Co. Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.82% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into THK Co. Ltd (THKLF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, THK Co. Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +11.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of THKLF use?
Our models discount THK Co. Ltd at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.78, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For THK Co. Ltd that is +11.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has THK Co. Ltd (THKLF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at THK Co. Ltd grew +1.9 % a year. The price currently implies +11.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of THK Co. Ltd (THKLF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into THK Co. Ltd (+11.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of THK Co. Ltd (THKLF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.27 %: that much free cash flow THK Co. Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of THK Co. Ltd (THKLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For THK Co. Ltd it is $14.71 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $31.39. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is THK Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, THKLF trades above its calculated fair value: price $31.39, fair value $14.71, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of THKLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($31.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($14.71). For THK Co. Ltd the two are $16.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is THK Co. Ltd worth?
The market values THK Co. Ltd at about $4.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $31.39; our models calculate a fair value of $14.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about THKLF?
Our models span a range for THK Co. Ltd: cautious scenario $10.85, base $14.71, optimistic $18.57 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $31.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of THKLF?
THK Co. Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 55.1 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $14.71 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/S 0.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of THK Co. Ltd (THKLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for THK Co. Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.2%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to THK Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is THK Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $31.39, calculated fair value $14.71 (−53%), Quality Score 57/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of THKLF calculated?
We run THK Co. Ltd through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $14.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. THK Co. Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of THK Co. Ltd (THKLF)?
The latest price we hold is from Jun 26, 2026 and stands at $31.39. Our model-based fair value is $14.71, about −53% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with THK Co. Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($18.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of THK Co. Ltd (THKLF) come from?
Earnings per share at THK Co. Ltd grew −2.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.8 %, EBIT margin −6.9 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of THK Co. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of THK Co. Ltd (THKLF)?
The market capitalisation of THK Co. Ltd is $4.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of THK Co. Ltd (THKLF)?
Earnings per share at THK Co. Ltd are $0.5700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 55.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of THK Co. Ltd (THKLF)?
The dividend yield of THK Co. Ltd is 3.8%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of THK Co. Ltd (THKLF)?
The net margin of THK Co. Ltd is −29.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of THK Co. Ltd (THKLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of THK Co. Ltd is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of THK Co. Ltd (THKLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of THK Co. Ltd is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of THK Co. Ltd (THKLF)?
The operating margin of THK Co. Ltd is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at THK Co. Ltd (THKLF)?
Revenue at THK Co. Ltd is growing −18.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −15.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at THK Co. Ltd (THKLF)?
Earnings per share at THK Co. Ltd are growing +13.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does THK Co. Ltd (THKLF) carry?
The net debt of THK Co. Ltd is ¥13.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026