Timken India Limited (TIMKEN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Timken India Limited is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹1,238 – ₹4,634 · fair‑value band ₹925.70 – ₹2,521 · the ₹3,302 price screens above the ₹1,771 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
Timken India Limited manufactures, sells, and distributes tapered and other roller bearings, components, accessories, and mechanical power transmission products in India, the United States, and internationally.
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Timken India Limited manufactures, sells, and distributes tapered and other roller bearings, components, accessories, and mechanical power transmission products in India, the United States, and internationally. The company offers engineered bearing products, such as ball, plain, precision, and needle and thrust bearings; cylindrical, energy efficient, spherical, and tapered roller bearings; housed and premium wheel hub units; and driveline center support bearings for commercial and light vehicles, as well as aerospace, industrial, and rail bearing repair services. It also provides mechanical power transmission products, including seals, maintenance tools, lubrication and filtration solutions, encoders, gear boxes/transmissions, couplings and joints, belts, augers, linear motion products, brakes and clutches, commercial vehicles wheel end accessories and tools, and chains. In addition, the company offers maintenance contract and refurbishment services. It sells its products under the TIMKEN, ROLLON, PHILADELPHIA GEAR, GGB, GROENEVELD, BEKA, Cone Drive, NADELLA, Lovejoy, DIAMOND, DRIVES, SPINEA, PTTECH, LAGERSMIT, TORSION CONTROL PRODUCTS, DES-CASE, and other brands. The company serves various markets, including defense, mining, metals, civil aerospace, commercial vehicles, agriculture, energy, rail, automotive, construction, outdoor power equipment, and industrial equipment and machinery. The company was formerly known as Tata Timken Limited and changed its name to Timken India Limited in July 1999. The company was incorporated in 1987 and is based in Bengaluru, India. Timken India Limited operates as a subsidiary of Timken Singapore Pte Ltd.
Stock analysis
Timken India Limited (TIMKEN) currently trades at ₹3,302, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹1,771, implying the stock looks roughly 86.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of ₹1,105 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the ₹3,302 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at ₹259.61, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: ₹925.70 (bear) to ₹2,521 (bull), the price of ₹3,302 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Timken India Limited reported revenue of ₹34.8B in FY2026 versus ₹22.0B in FY2022, a compound +12.1%/yr. Reported net income was ₹4.1B in FY2026, compounding +6.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap ₹248B (≈ $2.6B) · P/E ratio 60.0 · P/S ratio 7.16 · EPS (TTM) ₹55.04 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 11.9% · Return on equity 14.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 30.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −46%, TIMKEN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear ₹925.70Fair Value ₹1,771Bull ₹2,521
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 5 months old). Earnings retained since then (₹24.04 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.8%
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in INR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in INR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+11.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11% vs 15%, slowing
Profit margin 2005 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 15%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+52.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+12.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Tools & Accessories · 123 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−43% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Top 25%
Return on assets9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)12% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)19% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth16% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.1% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Tools & Accessories median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)60.0× · Priciest 25%
P/B9.02× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)7.56× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF1.6× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA41.1× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 6
FUTURE (revenue growth)80· sector 16
PAST (return on equity)58· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)2· sector 36
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Timken India Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TIMKEN
Frequently asked questions
Is Timken India Limited (TIMKEN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of ₹1,771 versus a price of ₹3,302, about −46% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TIMKEN?
Our model-based fair value for Timken India Limited is ₹1,771 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: ₹3,302.
What is the quality score of TIMKEN?
Timken India Limited has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Timken India Limited (TIMKEN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of ₹1,771 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario ₹925.70, optimistic scenario ₹2,521. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Timken India Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at ₹1,771, about −46% upside versus a price of ₹3,302 (overvalued). Cautious scenario ₹925.70, optimistic scenario ₹2,521. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Timken India Limited (TIMKEN)?
Timken India Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ₹34.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Timken India Limited pay a dividend?
Timken India Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.08% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Timken India Limited (TIMKEN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Timken India Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +52.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.8 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TIMKEN use?
Our models discount Timken India Limited at 10.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.33, country premium for India. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Timken India Limited that is +52.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Timken India Limited (TIMKEN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Timken India Limited grew +19.8 % a year. The price currently implies +52.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Timken India Limited (TIMKEN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Timken India Limited (+52.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Timken India Limited (TIMKEN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.69 %: that much free cash flow Timken India Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Timken India Limited (TIMKEN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Timken India Limited it is ₹1,771 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of ₹3,302. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Timken India Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, TIMKEN trades above its calculated fair value: price ₹3,302, fair value ₹1,771, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TIMKEN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (₹3,302); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (₹1,771). For Timken India Limited the two are ₹1,531 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Timken India Limited worth?
The market values Timken India Limited at about ₹248B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is ₹3,302; our models calculate a fair value of ₹1,771 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TIMKEN?
Our models span a range for Timken India Limited: cautious scenario ₹925.70, base ₹1,771, optimistic ₹2,521 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price ₹3,302). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TIMKEN?
Timken India Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 60.0 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of ₹1,771 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 9.0, P/S 7.6, EV/EBITDA 41.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Timken India Limited (TIMKEN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Timken India Limited (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 14.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TIMKEN from its 52-week high?
Timken India Limited trades at ₹3,302, about 16% below its 52-week high of ₹3,925 and 18% above the low of ₹2,801 (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of ₹1,771 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Timken India Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Techtronic Industries Company, Snap-on Incorporated, RBC Bearings Incorporated, Lincoln Electric Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Timken India Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price ₹3,302, calculated fair value ₹1,771 (−46%), Quality Score 59/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TIMKEN calculated?
We run Timken India Limited through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of ₹1,771, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Timken India Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What should I pay attention to with Timken India Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹2,521). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (₹925.70 to ₹2,521). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Timken India Limited (TIMKEN) come from?
Earnings per share at Timken India Limited grew +17.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.3 %, EBIT margin −1.9 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Timken India Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Timken India Limited (TIMKEN)?
The market capitalisation of Timken India Limited is ₹248B (≈ $2.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Timken India Limited (TIMKEN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Timken India Limited is 7.16 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Timken India Limited (TIMKEN)?
Earnings per share at Timken India Limited are ₹55.04 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 60.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Timken India Limited (TIMKEN)?
The dividend yield of Timken India Limited is 0.1% (payout 4.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Timken India Limited (TIMKEN)?
The net margin of Timken India Limited is 11.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Timken India Limited (TIMKEN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Timken India Limited is 14.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Timken India Limited (TIMKEN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Timken India Limited is 30.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Timken India Limited (TIMKEN)?
The operating margin of Timken India Limited is 19.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Timken India Limited (TIMKEN)?
Revenue at Timken India Limited is growing +16.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +7.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Timken India Limited (TIMKEN)?
Earnings per share at Timken India Limited are growing −15.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Timken India Limited (TIMKEN) hold?
Timken India Limited holds more cash than debt, ₹2.6B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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