Teekay Corporation (TK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Teekay Corporation stock $7.51, price $12.65, that is 40.6% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.29 – $15.56 · fair‑value band $6.71 – $8.19 · the $12.65 price screens above the $7.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 6, 2026.
Follow Teekay in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Teekay is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Teekay Corporation Ltd. provides crude oil marine transportation and other marine services worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Tankers and Marine Services. It owns and operates crude oil and refined product tankers.
Show moreShow less
The company also offers ship-to-ship support services; tanker commercial management operation services; technical management; and operational and maintenance marine services. It operates a fleet of 34 double-hull tankers.
It serves energy and utility companies, oil traders, oil consumers and petroleum product producers, government agencies, and various other entities that depend upon marine transportation.
The company was formerly known as Teekay Corporation and changed its name to Teekay Corporation Ltd. in October 2024. Teekay Corporation Ltd. was founded in 1973 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.
Stock analysis
Teekay Corporation (TK) currently trades at $12.65, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.51, 41% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $12.07 per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the $12.65 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.68, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $6.71 (bear) to $8.19 (bull), the price of $12.65 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Teekay Corporation reported revenue of $950M in FY2025 versus $683M in FY2021, a compound +8.6%/yr. Reported net income was $98.1M in FY2025, compounding +88.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $1.1B Small · P/E ratio 6.1 · P/S ratio 0.96 · EPS (TTM) $2.07 · Dividend yield 10.1% · Net margin 15.8% · Return on equity 27.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.7% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 70 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −30% fair-value upside, at −41%, TK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$6.71Fair Value $7.51Bull$8.19
Price $12.65 · Downside -40.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.77 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $7.5M and none bought.
SaleSimon Heidi LockeDirector4× since Jun 22, 2026: 31,685 shares, avg. $13.08$414,548Sep 17, 2026
SaleKenneth HvidPresident and CEO, Director3× since Jun 11, 2026: 455,041 shares, avg. $12.74$5.8MSep 11, 2026
SaleBrody SpeersChief Financial Officer, Director2× since Jun 11, 2026: 7,850 shares, avg. $12.43$97,605Aug 19, 2026
SaleRudolph KredietDirector2× since Jun 17, 2026: 104,499 shares, avg. $11.66$1.2MAug 3, 2026
Plus 11 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−22.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −9.0% a year
Revenue growth 31 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.6%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+81.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+71.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)10.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.71.7% vs 0.2%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 22%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.2%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.8%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −12.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 81 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Above median
Fair Value upside−40.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)27.1% · Top 25%
Return on assets14.7% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)56.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)46.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)43.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)10.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.65× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Teekay Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TK
Frequently asked questions
Is Teekay Corporation (TK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.51 versus a price of $12.65, about 41% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TK?
Our model-based fair value for Teekay Corporation is $7.51 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.65.
What is the quality score of TK?
Teekay Corporation has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Teekay Corporation (TK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.51 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.71, optimistic scenario $8.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Teekay Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.51, about 41% lower versus a price of $12.65 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.71, optimistic scenario $8.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Teekay Corporation (TK)?
Teekay Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Teekay Corporation pay a dividend?
Teekay Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 10.10% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Teekay Corporation (TK) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Teekay Corporation has a dividend yield of 10.1%. The last ex-dividend date was May 26, 2026. Our assessment: Safety not assessed. Payout ratio and cash coverage are not available, so we do not judge how safe this dividend is.
What growth is priced into Teekay Corporation (TK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Teekay Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by -10.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -12.2 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TK use?
Our models discount Teekay Corporation at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.24, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Teekay Corporation that is -10.8 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Teekay Corporation (TK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Teekay Corporation grew -12.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -10.8 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Teekay Corporation (TK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Teekay Corporation (-10.8 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Teekay Corporation (TK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 9.74 %: that much free cash flow Teekay Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Teekay Corporation (TK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Teekay Corporation it is $7.51 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $12.65. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Teekay Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, TK trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.65, fair value $7.51, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TK?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.65); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.51). For Teekay Corporation the two are $5.14 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Teekay Corporation worth?
The market values Teekay Corporation at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $12.65; our models calculate a fair value of $7.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TK?
Our models span a range for Teekay Corporation: cautious scenario $6.71, base $7.51, optimistic $8.19 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $12.65). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TK?
Teekay Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.1 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.51 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 5 fiscal years (2021 to 2025), reported earnings: 5.9. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 1.6, P/S 3.5, EV/EBITDA 4.7.
What is the PEG ratio of TK?
The PEG ratio of Teekay Corporation is 1.49 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 6, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Teekay Corporation (TK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Teekay Corporation (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 27.1%, debt of 0.65 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TK from its 52-week high?
Teekay Corporation trades at $12.65, about 19% below its 52-week high of $15.56 and 56% above the low of $8.08 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $7.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Teekay Corporation?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Kinder Morgan, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Teekay Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $12.65, calculated fair value $7.51 (−41%), Quality Score 55/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TK calculated?
We run Teekay Corporation through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $7.51 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Teekay Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Teekay Corporation (TK)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $12.65. Our model-based fair value is $7.51, about 41% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Teekay Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Teekay Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Teekay Corporation (TK)?
The market capitalisation of Teekay Corporation is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Teekay Corporation (TK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Teekay Corporation is 0.96 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Teekay Corporation (TK)?
Earnings per share at Teekay Corporation are $2.07 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Teekay Corporation (TK)?
The dividend yield of Teekay Corporation is 10.1% (payout 61.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Teekay Corporation (TK)?
The net margin of Teekay Corporation is 15.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Teekay Corporation (TK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Teekay Corporation is 27.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Teekay Corporation (TK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Teekay Corporation is 11.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Teekay Corporation (TK)?
The operating margin of Teekay Corporation is 46.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Teekay Corporation (TK)?
Revenue at Teekay Corporation is growing +43.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Teekay Corporation (TK)?
Earnings per share at Teekay Corporation are growing +243% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Teekay Corporation (TK) hold?
Teekay Corporation holds more cash than debt, $895M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch Teekay Corporation in the live analysis
One click puts Teekay Corporation on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 27,000+ stock screener.
Some data
Nov 6, 2026