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Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 11, 2026: fair value of Takara Holdings Inc. $9.74, price $11.20, upside -13.0%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Defensive · US

TH Takara Holdings Inc. logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Takara Holdings Inc.

TKHIF · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $9.74 · Overvalued (−13%)
!Quality 51/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 3y +6.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.0% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
·1.78% dividend yield
!Trails peers (3/13)
!Narrow moat 31/100
!Weak on valuation: 16 out of 100
!Weak on past: 11 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$11.40 $6.78 Fair Value $9.74 Aug 2024 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

25‑month range $6.78 – $11.40 · fair‑value band $7.76 – $12.67 · the $11.20 price screens above the $9.74 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Takara Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells alcoholic beverages and seasonings in Japan, the United States, and internationally. It operates through the Takara Shuzo, Takara Shuzo International Group, Takara Bio Group, and Other segments.

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Takara Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells alcoholic beverages and seasonings in Japan, the United States, and internationally. It operates through the Takara Shuzo, Takara Shuzo International Group, Takara Bio Group, and Other segments. The company offers alcoholic beverages, including shochu, sake, and light-alcohol refreshers; Scotch whisky, and alcohol-based seasonings, including Hon Mirin, food seasonings, and distilled raw alcohol, as well as engages in the sale of sundries, seafood, wine, bourbon whiskey, food ingredients, frozen food, and cookware and dinnerware for restaurants. It is also involved in the development, manufacture, and sale of reagents and instruments; contract development and manufacturing organization services for the development and manufacturing of regenerative medicine products; genetic analysis and testing; and genetic medicine and gene therapy. In addition, the company engages in the provision of logistics services, such as distribution processing and mail order/sales promotion distribution; transportation; warehousing; automobile services; non-life insurance agent; travel agent; wholesale of containers and packaging materials; digital; printing; and web production. Further, it offers market research; sales promotion planning; temporary staffing for plants, store support, and office and technical work; sale of rice, wheat, and food byproducts, as well as feed comprising rice bran and corn meal; and real estate leasing. The company exports its products. Takara Holdings Inc. was founded in 1842 and is headquartered in Kyoto, Japan.

Stock analysis

Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF) currently trades at $11.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.74, implying the stock looks roughly 15.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $14.24 per share, and 8 of the 15 models we run sit above the $11.20 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $4.65, and 7 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $7.76 (bear) to $12.67 (bull), the price of $11.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Takara Holdings Inc. reported revenue of ¥363B in FY2025 versus ¥278B in FY2021, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥16.2B in FY2025, compounding +11.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $2.2B · P/E ratio 26.7 · P/S ratio 1.19 · EPS (TTM) $0.4200 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 4.5% · Return on equity 2.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 2% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at −13%, TKHIF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $7.76 Fair Value $9.74 Bull $12.67
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings $6.08 $8.27 $11.44 74
EPV $8.65 $9.74 $10.68 71
ROIC Compounder $8.65 $9.74 $10.68 69
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $6.08 $8.27 $11.44 74
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $5.14 $15.36 $20.35 62
Lynch FV $3.25 $4.65 $6.04 58
PEG = 1.0 $3.25 $4.65 $6.04 55
EPV $8.65 $9.74 $10.68 71
Multiples
P/E Multiple $11.90 $15.86 $19.83 63
P/S Multiple $9.63 $12.84 $16.05 58
P/B Multiple $9.63 $12.84 $16.05 55
EV/EBIT $14.00 $18.08 $22.16 66
EV/EBITDA $16.61 $21.56 $26.51 67
EV/Revenue $10.49 $14.24 $17.98 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $7.02 $9.40 $14.03 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $10.70 $10.84 $10.40 68
ROIC Compounder $8.65 $9.74 $10.68 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $9.71 $13.86 $18.02 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 51/100

Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58

Profitability 38
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 18
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 77
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 60
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 100
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 40
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 84
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+11.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 6%

TKHIF screens 15% overvalued. Compare with Anheuser-Busch InBev SA →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 58 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 51 · Below median
Fair Value upside −13% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.15× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 26.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.15× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.88× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 9.5× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)16 · sector 32
FUTURE (revenue growth)37 · sector 2
PAST (return on equity)11 · sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)36 · sector 67

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA ABI €68.34 €61.85 −9%
Heineken N.V HEIA €71.70 €69.00 −4%
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FMX $122.03 $54.74 −55%
Constellation Brands, Inc STZ $117.59 $182.94 +56%
Heineken Holding HEIO €67.30 €63.85 −5%
Budweiser Brewing Company 1876 HK$6.10 HK$3.89 −36%
China Resources Beer (Holdings) Company 0291 HK$18.61 HK$25.47 +37%
Molson Coors Beverage Company TAP $36.88 $76.21 +107%
Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co 000729 ¥11.04 ¥11.10 +1%
United Breweries Limited UBL ₹1,242 ₹141.82 −89%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Takara Holdings Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TKHIF

Frequently asked questions

Is Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.74 versus the last price from Sep 11, 2026 of $11.20, about −13% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TKHIF?
Our model-based fair value for Takara Holdings Inc. is $9.74 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 11, 2026): $11.20.
What is the quality score of TKHIF?
Takara Holdings Inc. has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.74 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.76, optimistic scenario $12.67. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Takara Holdings Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.74, about −13% upside versus the last price from Sep 11, 2026 of $11.20 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $7.76, optimistic scenario $12.67. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
Takara Holdings Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥394B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Takara Holdings Inc. pay a dividend?
Takara Holdings Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.78% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Takara Holdings Inc. it is $9.74 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $11.20. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Takara Holdings Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TKHIF trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.20, fair value $9.74, a gap of about −13% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TKHIF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.74). For Takara Holdings Inc. the two are $1.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Takara Holdings Inc. worth?
The market values Takara Holdings Inc. at about $2.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $11.20; our models calculate a fair value of $9.74 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TKHIF?
Our models span a range for Takara Holdings Inc.: cautious scenario $7.76, base $9.74, optimistic $12.67 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $11.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TKHIF?
Takara Holdings Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $9.74 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 9.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Takara Holdings Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.8%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TKHIF from its 52-week high?
Takara Holdings Inc. trades at $11.20, about 2% below its 52-week high of $11.40 and 2% above the low of $11.01 (as of Sep 11, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.74 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Takara Holdings Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A., Constellation Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Takara Holdings Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $11.20, calculated fair value $9.74 (−13%), Quality Score 51/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TKHIF calculated?
We run Takara Holdings Inc. through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.74, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Takara Holdings Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 11, 2026 and stands at $11.20. Our model-based fair value is $9.74, about −13% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Takara Holdings Inc. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Key figures of Takara Holdings Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
The market capitalisation of Takara Holdings Inc. is $2.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Takara Holdings Inc. is 1.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
Earnings per share at Takara Holdings Inc. are $0.4200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 26.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
The dividend yield of Takara Holdings Inc. is 1.8% (payout 47.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
The net margin of Takara Holdings Inc. is 4.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Takara Holdings Inc. is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Takara Holdings Inc. is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
The operating margin of Takara Holdings Inc. is 4.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
Revenue at Takara Holdings Inc. is growing +7.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
Earnings per share at Takara Holdings Inc. are growing −64.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF) generate?
The free cash flow of Takara Holdings Inc. is −¥4.0B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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