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Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 12, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Takara Holdings Inc. stock $4.69, price $16.05, that is 70.8% below the price, quality 55 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 17 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Consumer Defensive US · Based in Japan

TH Takara Holdings Inc. logo Some data Nov 7, 2026

Takara Holdings Inc.

TKHIF · US
Solid, but very expensive

Our calculation puts a fair price 71% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Upbeat coverage
Quality 55/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +7.2 %/yr in JPY)
Thin margins · 3.0% net margin (FY2026)
1.1% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Some data
Profit last quarter 64% below a year ago.
Fair value $4.69 · Strongly overvalued
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/13)
Narrow moat 31/100
⚠ Thinly traded
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$16.05 $6.78 Fair Value $4.69 Aug 2024 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

27‑month range $6.78 – $16.05 · fair‑value band $2.62 – $5.51 · the $16.05 price screens above the $4.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

Takara Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells alcoholic beverages and seasonings in Japan, the United States, and internationally. It operates through the Takara Shuzo, Takara Shuzo International Group, Takara Bio Group, and Other segments.

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The company offers alcoholic beverages, including shochu, sake, and light-alcohol refreshers; Scotch whisky, and alcohol-based seasonings, including Hon Mirin, food seasonings, and distilled raw alcohol, as well as engages in the sale of sundries, seafood, wine, bourbon whiskey, food ingredients, frozen food, and cookware and dinnerware for restaurants.

It is also involved in the development, manufacture, and sale of reagents and instruments; contract development and manufacturing organization services for the development and manufacturing of regenerative medicine products; genetic analysis and testing; and genetic medicine and gene therapy.

In addition, the company engages in the provision of logistics services, such as distribution processing and mail order/sales promotion distribution; transportation; warehousing; automobile services; non-life insurance agent; travel agent; wholesale of containers and packaging materials; digital; printing; and web production.

Further, it offers market research; sales promotion planning; temporary staffing for plants, store support, and office and technical work; sale of rice, wheat, and food byproducts, as well as feed comprising rice bran and corn meal; and real estate leasing. The company exports its products.

Takara Holdings Inc. was founded in 1842 and is headquartered in Kyoto, Japan.

Stock analysis

Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF) currently trades at $16.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.69, 71% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $8.11 per share, and 1 of the 17 models we run sit above the $16.05 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $1.71, and 16 of the 17 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $2.62 (bear) to $5.51 (bull), the price of $16.05 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Takara Holdings Inc. reported revenue of ¥394B in FY2026 versus ¥301B in FY2022, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥11.7B in FY2026, compounding −13.4%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap $3.1B Mid · P/E ratio 40.1 · P/S ratio 1.19 · EPS (TTM) $0.4000 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 3.0% · Return on equity 2.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.8% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades at its 52-week high and 46% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 19% fair-value upside, at −71%, TKHIF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.62 Fair Value $4.69 Bull $5.51
Price $16.05 · Downside -70.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1324 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $6.59 $6.65 $7.01 76
Owner Earnings $1.80 $2.56 $3.78 75
ROIC Compounder $4.08 $4.69 $5.24 71
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $1.80 $2.56 $3.78 75
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $2.63 $8.64 $11.55 64
Lynch FV $1.94 $2.78 $3.61 61
PEG = 1.0 $1.94 $2.78 $3.61 57
EPV $4.08 $4.69 $5.24 70
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $1.51 $3.28 $5.51 65
DDM Multi-Stage $1.51 $2.60 $3.42 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $6.08 $8.11 $10.13 63
P/S Multiple $4.92 $6.56 $8.20 57
P/B Multiple $27.09 $36.12 $45.15 55
EV/EBIT $6.23 $8.10 $9.98 65
EV/EBITDA $8.78 $11.50 $14.23 67
EV/Revenue $4.61 $6.34 $8.06 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.13 $1.71 $2.14 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $6.59 $6.65 $7.01 76
ROIC Compounder $4.08 $4.69 $5.24 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $5.13 $7.32 $9.52 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 36
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 43
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 26
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 69
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 78
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 77
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 76
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 92
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 92
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 42/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−4.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.8% → 4%

TKHIF screens overvalued: fair value 71% below the price. Compare with Anheuser-Busch InBev SA →

Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (6 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Note from the team Oct 19, 2026
AI conclusion: Diversified operations across beverages, biotech and logistics provide breadth, yet low ROE and negative free cash flow signal limited durable advantage in the competitive beer market.
Main risk: Keeping the current blended mix of beverage, biotech and logistics units risks ongoing low returns and negative free cash flow that would hit capital allocation and portfolio efficiency.
Takara Holdings blends its beverage operations with biotech and logistics units in one group. An activist investor has just taken a 5.09% stake and is pressing for divestitures to tighten capital allocation and portfolio focus. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the company use the external push to concentrate on higher-return beverage and growth areas, or keep the current mix intact?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 55 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 55 · Below median
Fair Value upside −70.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 2.8% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 2.3% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 3.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 7.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 1.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.19× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 40.1× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.89× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months) 1.24× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 14.4× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)37 · sector 13
PAST (return on equity)11 · sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)90 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)23 · sector 60

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Molson Coors Beverage Company TAP $40.33 $79.18 +96% vs TKHIF
Royal Unibrew A/S RBREW kr 454.00 kr 665.56 +47% vs TKHIF
Constellation Brands, Inc STZ $141.97 $185.39 +31% vs TKHIF
Chongqing Brewery Co 600132 ¥39.74 ¥51.70 +30% vs TKHIF
Tsingtao Brewery Company 600600 ¥53.34 ¥63.71 +19% vs TKHIF
Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co 000729 ¥11.20 ¥11.10 −1% vs TKHIF
Heineken N.V HEIA €83.58 €69.22 −17% vs TKHIF
Anheuser-Busch InBev SA ABI €75.70 €62.16 −18% vs TKHIF
Heineken Holding HEIO €79.35 €64.21 −19% vs TKHIF
United Breweries Limited UBL ₹1,190 ₹141.82 −88% vs TKHIF

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Takara Holdings Inc.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Takara Holdings Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TKHIF

Frequently asked questions

Is Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.69 versus the last price from Oct 12, 2026 of $16.05, about 71% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TKHIF?
Our model-based fair value for Takara Holdings Inc. is $4.69 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Oct 12, 2026): $16.05.
What is the quality score of TKHIF?
Takara Holdings Inc. has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.69 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.62, optimistic scenario $5.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Takara Holdings Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.69, about 71% lower versus the last price from Oct 12, 2026 of $16.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.62, optimistic scenario $5.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
Takara Holdings Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥394B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Takara Holdings Inc. pay a dividend?
Takara Holdings Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 1.14% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Takara Holdings Inc. pays a dividend of $0.183 per share a year, a dividend yield of 1.1%. The next ex-dividend date is Mar 31, 2027. The payout ratio is 47.5% of earnings. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Takara Holdings Inc. it is $4.69 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $16.05. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Takara Holdings Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, TKHIF trades above its calculated fair value: price $16.05, fair value $4.69, a gap of about −71% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TKHIF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($16.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.69). For Takara Holdings Inc. the two are $11.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Takara Holdings Inc. worth?
The market values Takara Holdings Inc. at about $3.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $16.05; our models calculate a fair value of $4.69 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TKHIF?
Our models span a range for Takara Holdings Inc.: cautious scenario $2.62, base $4.69, optimistic $5.51 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $16.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TKHIF?
Takara Holdings Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 40.1 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.69 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 14.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Takara Holdings Inc. (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 2.8%, debt of 0.19 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TKHIF from its 52-week high?
Takara Holdings Inc. trades at $16.05, at its 52-week high of $16.05 and 46% above the low of $11.01 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.69 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Takara Holdings Inc.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Constellation Brands, Inc, Heineken Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Takara Holdings Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $16.05, calculated fair value $4.69 (−71%), Quality Score 55/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TKHIF calculated?
We run Takara Holdings Inc. through 17 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $4.69 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Takara Holdings Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
The latest price we hold is from Oct 12, 2026 and stands at $16.05. Our model-based fair value is $4.69, about 71% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Takara Holdings Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.51). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($2.62 to $5.51) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Takara Holdings Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
The market capitalisation of Takara Holdings Inc. is $3.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Takara Holdings Inc. is 1.19 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
Earnings per share at Takara Holdings Inc. are $0.4000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 40.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
The dividend yield of Takara Holdings Inc. is 1.1% (payout 45.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
The net margin of Takara Holdings Inc. is 3.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Takara Holdings Inc. is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Takara Holdings Inc. is 6.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
Revenue at Takara Holdings Inc. is growing +7.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF)?
Earnings per share at Takara Holdings Inc. are growing −64.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Takara Holdings Inc. (TKHIF) generate?
The free cash flow of Takara Holdings Inc. is −¥4.8B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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