Talen Energy Corporation (TLNE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jul 17, 2026: fair value of Talen Energy Corporation $242, price $372, upside -34.9%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
37‑month range $44.10 – $443.84 · fair‑value band $71.91 – $542.95 · the $372.37 price screens above the $242.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Talen Energy Corporation, an independent power producer and infrastructure company, produces and sells electricity, capacity, and ancillary services into wholesale power markets in the United States. The company operates nuclear, fossil, solar, and coal power plants. It is also developing battery storage projects.
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Talen Energy Corporation, an independent power producer and infrastructure company, produces and sells electricity, capacity, and ancillary services into wholesale power markets in the United States. The company operates nuclear, fossil, solar, and coal power plants. It is also developing battery storage projects. The company owns and operates approximately 10.7 GW of power infrastructure. Talen Energy Corporation is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Stock analysis
Talen Energy Corporation (TLNE) currently trades at $372.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $242.41, 34.9% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $256.96 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $372.37 price.
Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $29.05, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $71.91 (bear) to $542.95 (bull), the price of $372.37 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Talen Energy Corporation reported revenue of $2.6B in FY2025 versus $1.8B in FY2020, a compound +7.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$219M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $6.1B · P/S ratio 2.86 · Net margin −8.3% · Return on equity 77.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1,300% · Operating margin 4.1% · Revenue (TTM) $2.1B · Revenue growth (YoY) −33.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −35%, TLNE screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($13.75 to $256.96). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $71.91Fair Value $242.41Bull $542.95
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−8.9% (2020) → 0.6% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: only 2 usable fiscal years, at least 4 required
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.6% a year for the price.
Compare Talen Energy Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Independent Power Producers · 72 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score45 · Below median
Fair Value upside−34.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)77.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets3.3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)40.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)4.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−33.5% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity6.21× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Independent Power Producers median · lower = cheaper
P/B5.58× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.87× · Pricier than median
P/FCF12.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA25.7× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 28
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 71
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Talen Energy Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TLNE
Frequently asked questions
Is Talen Energy Corporation (TLNE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $242.41 versus the last price from Jul 17, 2026 of $372.37, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TLNE?
Our model-based fair value for Talen Energy Corporation is $242.41 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jul 17, 2026): $372.37.
What is the quality score of TLNE?
Talen Energy Corporation has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Talen Energy Corporation (TLNE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $242.41 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $71.91, optimistic scenario $542.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Talen Energy Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $242.41, about −35% upside versus the last price from Jul 17, 2026 of $372.37 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $71.91, optimistic scenario $542.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Talen Energy Corporation (TLNE)?
Talen Energy Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Talen Energy Corporation (TLNE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Talen Energy Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +25.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TLNE use?
Our models discount Talen Energy Corporation at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Talen Energy Corporation that is +25.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Talen Energy Corporation (TLNE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Talen Energy Corporation grew +7.9 % a year. The price currently implies +25.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Talen Energy Corporation (TLNE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Talen Energy Corporation (+25.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Talen Energy Corporation (TLNE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.93 %: that much free cash flow Talen Energy Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Talen Energy Corporation (TLNE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Talen Energy Corporation it is $242.41 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $372.37. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Talen Energy Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TLNE trades above its calculated fair value: price $372.37, fair value $242.41, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TLNE?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($372.37); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($242.41). For Talen Energy Corporation the two are $129.96 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Talen Energy Corporation worth?
The market values Talen Energy Corporation at about $6.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $372.37; our models calculate a fair value of $242.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TLNE?
Our models span a range for Talen Energy Corporation: cautious scenario $71.91, base $242.41, optimistic $542.95 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $372.37). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Talen Energy Corporation (TLNE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Talen Energy Corporation (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 77.2%, debt of 6.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 45/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TLNE from its 52-week high?
Talen Energy Corporation trades at $372.37, about 16% below its 52-week high of $443.84 and 42% above the low of $262.46 (as of Jul 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $242.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Talen Energy Corporation?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Constellation Energy Corporation, Vistra Corp, Adani Power Limited, CGN Power Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Talen Energy Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $372.37, calculated fair value $242.41 (−35%), Quality Score 45/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TLNE calculated?
We run Talen Energy Corporation through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $242.41, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Talen Energy Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Talen Energy Corporation (TLNE)?
The latest price we hold is from Jul 17, 2026 and stands at $372.37. Our model-based fair value is $242.41, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Talen Energy Corporation right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($71.91 to $542.95). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Talen Energy Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Talen Energy Corporation (TLNE)?
The market capitalisation of Talen Energy Corporation is $6.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Talen Energy Corporation (TLNE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Talen Energy Corporation is 2.86 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Talen Energy Corporation (TLNE)?
The net margin of Talen Energy Corporation is −8.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Talen Energy Corporation (TLNE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Talen Energy Corporation is 77.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Talen Energy Corporation (TLNE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Talen Energy Corporation is 1,300% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Talen Energy Corporation (TLNE)?
The operating margin of Talen Energy Corporation is 4.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Talen Energy Corporation (TLNE)?
Revenue at Talen Energy Corporation is growing −33.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Talen Energy Corporation (TLNE) carry?
The net debt of Talen Energy Corporation is $6.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 12.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 23, 2026