TMK Energy Limited (TMK) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · AU · Market cap A$41.8M
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −12.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 33% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.1300). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide (A$0.0400 to A$0.1300). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.0550 – A$1.16 · fair‑value band A$0.0400 – A$0.1300 · the A$0.1350 price screens above the A$0.0900 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
TMK Energy Limited (TMK) currently trades at A$0.1350, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0900, implying the stock looks roughly 33.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at A$1.3M. Revenue declined 72.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -6.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of A$1.8M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from A$0.0400 (bear case) to A$0.1300 (bull case); at A$0.1350, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 145% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -33%, TMK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (A$0.0700) versus Dividend Discount (A$0.0600). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 52
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
TMK Energy Limited engages in the exploration and appraisal of coal seam Mongolia. Its flagship asset is the Gurvantes XXXV Coal Seam Gas project covering an area of 8,400 square kilometers located in the South Gobi Desert, Mongolia. The company was formerly known as Tamaska Oil and Gas Limited and changed its name to TMK Energy Limited in February 2022.
Full company description
TMK Energy Limited engages in the exploration and appraisal of coal seam Mongolia. Its flagship asset is the Gurvantes XXXV Coal Seam Gas project covering an area of 8,400 square kilometers located in the South Gobi Desert, Mongolia. The company was formerly known as Tamaska Oil and Gas Limited and changed its name to TMK Energy Limited in February 2022. TMK Energy Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in West Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
TMK Energy Limited reported revenue of A$61.1K in FY2024 versus A$1.1K in FY2020, a compound +175.2%/yr. Reported net income was −A$1.6M in FY2025.
TMK screens 33% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 313 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥32.85 | ¥32.55 | -1% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $125.92 | $90.15 | -28% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $47.57 | $31.14 | -35% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $143.14 | $130.19 | -9% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $58.55 | $30.06 | -49% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $201.71 | $105.24 | -48% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $44.86 | $27.06 | -40% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$32.55 | A$20.71 | -36% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $54.06 | $42.85 | -21% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $342.77 | $77.26 | -77% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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