Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Tamar Petroleum Ltd ILS 19.87, price ILS 25.99, upside -23.6%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
54‑month range 6.33 ILA – 41.63 ILA · fair‑value band 13.91 ILA – 25.07 ILA · the 25.99 ILA price screens above the 19.87 ILA fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Tamar Petroleum Ltd engages in the exploration, development, production, marketing, and transmission of natural gas and condensate in Israel. It has 16.75% interest rights in the Tamar and Dalit projects.
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Tamar Petroleum Ltd engages in the exploration, development, production, marketing, and transmission of natural gas and condensate in Israel. It has 16.75% interest rights in the Tamar and Dalit projects. The company sells and supplies natural gas produced from the Tamar reservoir primarily to the Israel Electric Company Ltd., private electricity producers, industrial customers, and natural gas marketing companies, as well as sells condensate to Ashdod refinery Ltd. In addition, it exports natural gas to Jordan and Egypt. The company was formerly known as Karish and Tanin Management Ltd. and changed its name to Tamar Petroleum Ltd in May 2017. The company was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Herzliya Pituach, Israel.
Stock analysis
Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP) currently trades at 25.99 ILA, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 19.87 ILA, 23.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 27.00 ILA per share, and 9 of the 23 models we run sit above the 25.99 ILA price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 8.55 ILA, and 14 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 13.91 ILA (bear) to 25.07 ILA (bull), the price of 25.99 ILA sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Tamar Petroleum Ltd reported revenue of $274M in FY2025 versus $239M in FY2021, a compound +3.5%/yr. Reported net income was $53.8M in FY2025, compounding +7.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 2.3B ILA · P/E ratio 16.6 · P/S ratio 3.26 · EPS (TTM) 1.57 ILA · Dividend yield 5.0% · Net margin 19.7% · Return on equity 11.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −24%, TMRP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 13.91 ILAFair Value 19.87 ILABull 25.07 ILA
Price 25.99 ILA · Upside -23.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1973 ILS per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2025: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2025.
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.4%
Revenue growth 10 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−4.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9.6% vs −7.2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.59% → 62%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.8% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 272 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−23.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11.9% · Above median
Return on assets5.3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)18.3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)39.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth11.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.31× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
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Is Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 19.87 ILA versus a price of 25.99 ILA, about −24% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TMRP?
Our model-based fair value for Tamar Petroleum Ltd is 19.87 ILA (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 25.99 ILA.
What is the quality score of TMRP?
Tamar Petroleum Ltd has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 19.87 ILA (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario 13.91 ILA, optimistic scenario 25.07 ILA. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tamar Petroleum Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 19.87 ILA, about −24% upside versus a price of 25.99 ILA (overvalued). Cautious scenario 13.91 ILA, optimistic scenario 25.07 ILA. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP)?
Tamar Petroleum Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $260M (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Tamar Petroleum Ltd pay a dividend?
Tamar Petroleum Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.04% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tamar Petroleum Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +7.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.6 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TMRP use?
Our models discount Tamar Petroleum Ltd at 13.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Israel. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tamar Petroleum Ltd that is +7.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tamar Petroleum Ltd grew +1.6 % a year. The price currently implies +7.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +11.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tamar Petroleum Ltd (+7.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.48 %: that much free cash flow Tamar Petroleum Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tamar Petroleum Ltd it is 19.87 ILA per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of 25.99 ILA. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tamar Petroleum Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, TMRP trades above its calculated fair value: price 25.99 ILA, fair value 19.87 ILA, a gap of about −24% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TMRP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (25.99 ILA); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (19.87 ILA). For Tamar Petroleum Ltd the two are 6.12 ILA per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tamar Petroleum Ltd worth?
The market values Tamar Petroleum Ltd at about 2.3B ILA (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is 25.99 ILA; our models calculate a fair value of 19.87 ILA per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TMRP?
Our models span a range for Tamar Petroleum Ltd: cautious scenario 13.91 ILA, base 19.87 ILA, optimistic 25.07 ILA per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price 25.99 ILA). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TMRP?
Tamar Petroleum Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.6 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 19.87 ILA is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.7, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 8.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tamar Petroleum Ltd (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 11.9%, debt of 1.31 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TMRP from its 52-week high?
Tamar Petroleum Ltd trades at 25.99 ILA, about 38% below its 52-week high of 41.63 ILA and 9% above the low of 23.85 ILA (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 19.87 ILA is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tamar Petroleum Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tamar Petroleum Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price 25.99 ILA, calculated fair value 19.87 ILA (−24%), Quality Score 67/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TMRP calculated?
We run Tamar Petroleum Ltd through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 19.87 ILA, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Tamar Petroleum Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was 25.99 ILA. Our model-based fair value is 19.87 ILA, about −24% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tamar Petroleum Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (25.07 ILA). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (13.91 ILA to 25.07 ILA) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP) come from?
Earnings per share at Tamar Petroleum Ltd grew −9.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.1 %, EBIT margin −4.0 %, tax rate −2.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tamar Petroleum Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP)?
The market capitalisation of Tamar Petroleum Ltd is 2.3B ILA. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tamar Petroleum Ltd is 3.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP)?
Earnings per share at Tamar Petroleum Ltd are 1.57 ILA (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP)?
The dividend yield of Tamar Petroleum Ltd is 5.0% (payout 83.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP)?
The net margin of Tamar Petroleum Ltd is 19.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tamar Petroleum Ltd is 11.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tamar Petroleum Ltd is 9.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP)?
The operating margin of Tamar Petroleum Ltd is 39.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP)?
Revenue at Tamar Petroleum Ltd is growing +11.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP)?
Earnings per share at Tamar Petroleum Ltd are growing +41.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tamar Petroleum Ltd (TMRP) carry?
The net debt of Tamar Petroleum Ltd is $582M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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