Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings €3.19, price €4.86, upside -34.4%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
In Frankfurt, only 0 of the last 21 trading days (30 days) had any turnover. On the other days the price is an indicative quote without trading, so we do not list this stock in the radar. It stays reachable through search.
TTSome dataSep 30, 2026
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings
TO91 · F
Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.
!Fair value €3.19 · Overvalued (−34.4%)
!Quality 41/100
!Expensive Growth(revenue 3y +10.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 23.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!5.1% dividend yield · Watch coverage
✓Ranks above peers(9/13)
✓Wide moat65/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.88 – €4.94 · fair‑value band €3.19 – €4.15 · the €4.86 price screens above the €3.19 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.
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Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings, Inc. operates as a securities company in Japan. The company offers foreign and domestic equities; foreign, municipal, and structured bonds; derivatives; investment trust services; forex; and investment banking services, such as IPOs, public stock offerings, secondary sales, and mergers and acquisitions.
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Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings, Inc. operates as a securities company in Japan. The company offers foreign and domestic equities; foreign, municipal, and structured bonds; derivatives; investment trust services; forex; and investment banking services, such as IPOs, public stock offerings, secondary sales, and mergers and acquisitions. It is also involved in the financial instruments business; research on economic conditions and corporate performance; creation and management of funds, and self-financed and fund investments; consulting on handling of testamentary trusts and inheritance property; asset management; education and training; provision of transfer agency, merchandising, printing, real estate rental management, and insurance agency services; and outsourced back-office operations. In addition, the company offers information, investment and securities management, advisory, and agency services. The company was formerly known as Tokai Tokyo Securities Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings, Inc. in April 2009. Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings, Inc. was incorporated in 1929 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91) currently trades at €4.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €3.19, 34.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €4.79 per share, and 2 of the 12 models we run sit above the €4.86 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €1.60, and 10 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €3.19 (bear) to €4.15 (bull), the price of €4.86 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings reported revenue of ¥97.7B in FY2026 versus ¥81.0B in FY2022, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was ¥16.6B in FY2026, compounding +5.9%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €1.2B · P/E ratio 13.5 · P/S ratio 2.29 · EPS (TTM) €0.3600 · Dividend yield 5.1% · Net margin 17.0% · Return on equity 12.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 44 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −15% fair-value upside, at −34%, TO91 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear €3.19Fair Value €3.19Bull €4.15
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.0%
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +13.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+8.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.1%
Profit margin 2022 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 15%
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 61% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Compare Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Capital Markets · 462 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score44 · Below median
Fair Value upside−34.1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.9% · Above median
Return on assets2.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)23.4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)28.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth43.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)5.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.92× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Capital Markets median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)13.5× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.11× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM)2.18× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF199.2× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 94
PAST (return on equity)52· sector 32
HEALTH (low debt)54· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 44
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TO91
Frequently asked questions
Is Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €3.19 versus a price of €4.86, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TO91?
Our model-based fair value for Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings is €3.19 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €4.86.
What is the quality score of TO91?
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €3.19 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario €3.19, optimistic scenario €4.15. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €3.19, about −34% upside versus a price of €4.86 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €3.19, optimistic scenario €4.15. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91)?
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥100B (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings pay a dividend?
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.05% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +4.8 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TO91 use?
Our models discount Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.45, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings grew +4.8 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.50 %: that much free cash flow Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings it is €3.19 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of €4.86. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, TO91 trades above its calculated fair value: price €4.86, fair value €3.19, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TO91?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€4.86); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€3.19). For Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings the two are €1.67 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings worth?
The market values Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings at about €1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is €4.86; our models calculate a fair value of €3.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TO91?
Our models span a range for Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings: cautious scenario €3.19, base €3.19, optimistic €4.15 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price €4.86). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TO91?
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.5 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €3.19 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 2.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 12.9%, debt of 0.92 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TO91 from its 52-week high?
Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings trades at €4.86, about 2% below its 52-week high of €4.94 and 62% above the low of €3.00 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €3.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Morgan Stanley, a financial holding company,, The Goldman Sachs Group, The Charles Schwab Corporation, Interactive Brokers Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price €4.86, calculated fair value €3.19 (−34%), Quality Score 41/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TO91 calculated?
We run Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €3.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was €4.86. Our model-based fair value is €3.19, about −34% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€4.15). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Key figures of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91)?
The market capitalisation of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings is €1.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings is 2.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91)?
Earnings per share at Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings are €0.3600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91)?
The dividend yield of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings is 5.1% (payout 68.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91)?
The net margin of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings is 17.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91)?
The operating margin of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings is 28.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91)?
Revenue at Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings is growing +43.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91)?
Earnings per share at Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings are growing +19.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings (TO91) carry?
The net debt of Tokai Tokyo Financial Holdings is ¥637B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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