Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tourmaline Oil Corp. stock C$29.47, price C$63.00, that is 53.2% below the price, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$20.77 – C$68.97 · fair‑value band C$16.42 – C$37.62 · the C$63.00 price screens above the C$29.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Tourmaline Oil Corp. engages in the acquisition, exploration, development, and production of petroleum and natural gas properties in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin.
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The company holds interests in properties located in the Alberta Deep Basin, Northeast British Columbia Montney, and the Peace River High Triassic oil complex. Tourmaline Oil Corp. was incorporated in 2008 and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU) currently trades at C$63.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$29.47, 53% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of C$61.08 per share, and 2 of the 22 models we run sit above the C$63.00 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at C$7.36, and 20 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$16.42 (bear) to C$37.62 (bull), the price of C$63.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Tourmaline Oil Corp. reported revenue of C$5.8B in FY2025 versus C$4.8B in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was C$263M in FY2025, compounding −40.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$24.6B (≈ $17.6B) Large · P/E ratio 67.7 · P/S ratio 5.11 · EPS (TTM) C$0.9300 · Dividend yield 5.2% · Net margin 7.9% · Return on equity 2.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −53%, TOU screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearC$16.42Fair Value C$29.47BullC$37.62
Price C$63.00 · Downside -53.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual IncomeC$27.94C$28.00C$28.9076
FCF DCFC$17.86C$31.65C$78.7673
Growth DCFC$16.74C$37.22C$83.6272
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCFC$17.86C$31.65C$78.7673
Owner EarningsC$11.83C$32.83C$82.0768
5Y Revenue ExitC$3.63C$6.04C$10.7270
5Y EBITDA ExitC$30.30C$61.07C$120.4171
5Y P/E ExitC$7.80C$17.94C$31.1567
10Y Revenue ExitC$7.30C$13.50C$16.6067
10Y EBITDA ExitC$27.66C$71.87C$156.5962
10Y P/E ExitC$10.56C$22.64C$42.8160
Earnings-Based
Graham-DoddC$4.60C$32.05C$44.9863
Lynch FVC$11.17C$15.96C$20.7561
PEG = 1.0C$11.17C$15.96C$20.7557
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGMC$33.21C$77.93C$144.9264
DDM Multi-StageC$33.21C$61.08C$80.3066
Multiples
P/E MultipleC$7.10C$9.46C$11.8363
P/S MultipleC$8.62C$11.49C$14.3658
P/B MultipleC$35.15C$46.87C$58.5955
EV/EBITDAC$31.09C$43.07C$55.0667
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)C$19.86C$26.61C$39.7254
Growth DCF
Growth DCFC$16.74C$37.22C$83.6272
Rev-Margin DCFC$3.63C$7.36C$13.3369
Economic Profit
Residual IncomeC$27.94C$28.00C$28.9076
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/EC$12.61C$18.02C$23.4367
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+33.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +18.6% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+36.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−16.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−21.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−21.3% vs −6.9%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.30% → 1%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+27.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.6% a year for the price and +9.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Minimal differentiation leaves Tourmaline with a weak moat in commodity E&P, where persistently low returns on capital form the central weakness despite Montney and LNG exposure.
Main risk: Stricter federal and provincial emissions rules and carbon pricing could increase operating and compliance costs for Tourmaline’s Montney and Deep Basin operations and delay project approvals.
Bull case: Tourmaline could leverage its low-emission certified gas and LNG exports to data centers and international markets to offset higher regulatory costs and maintain production growth.
Bear case: Tighter regulations might force production cuts or higher costs in Western Canada, limiting the company’s ability to expand its Montney and LNG-linked output over the coming years.
Tourmaline is reducing its stake in Topaz through the recent secondary offering because it sees greater relative value in its own shares as Topaz matures into an independent royalty business. This pairs with the higher base dividend and repurchase plans to emphasize returns across the cycle. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Does the durability of cash flows from its Montney and LNG exposure justify maintaining those returns if gas prices remain volatile?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 238 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Below median
Fair Value upside−53.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.3% · Below median
Return on assets1.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)7.9% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)19.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)14.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)5.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.07× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)67.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.59× · Pricier than median
P/S (12 months)5.11× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow64.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA11.8× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.32× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)75· sector 100
PAST (return on equity)9· sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)97· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 75
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$29.47 versus a price of C$63.00, about 53% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TOU?
Our model-based fair value for Tourmaline Oil Corp. is C$29.47 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$63.00.
What is the quality score of TOU?
Tourmaline Oil Corp. has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$29.47 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$16.42, optimistic scenario C$37.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tourmaline Oil Corp. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$29.47, about 53% lower versus a price of C$63.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$16.42, optimistic scenario C$37.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU)?
Tourmaline Oil Corp. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$4.8B (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Tourmaline Oil Corp. pay a dividend?
Tourmaline Oil Corp. currently shows a dividend yield of 5.24% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tourmaline Oil Corp. would have to grow free cash flow by +27.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +21.2 % per year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TOU use?
Our models discount Tourmaline Oil Corp. at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.40, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tourmaline Oil Corp. that is +27.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tourmaline Oil Corp. grew +21.2 % a year. The price currently implies +27.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +14.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tourmaline Oil Corp. (+27.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.54 %: that much free cash flow Tourmaline Oil Corp. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tourmaline Oil Corp. it is C$29.47 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of C$63.00. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tourmaline Oil Corp. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, TOU trades above its calculated fair value: price C$63.00, fair value C$29.47, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOU?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$63.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$29.47). For Tourmaline Oil Corp. the two are C$33.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tourmaline Oil Corp. worth?
The market values Tourmaline Oil Corp. at about C$24.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is C$63.00; our models calculate a fair value of C$29.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOU?
Our models span a range for Tourmaline Oil Corp.: cautious scenario C$16.42, base C$29.47, optimistic C$37.62 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price C$63.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TOU?
Tourmaline Oil Corp. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 67.7 (as of Nov 5, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$29.47 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2025), reported earnings: 11.9. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 1.6, P/S 5.1, EV/EBITDA 11.8.
What is the PEG ratio of TOU?
The PEG ratio of Tourmaline Oil Corp. is 0.32 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 5, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tourmaline Oil Corp. (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity 2.3%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TOU from its 52-week high?
Tourmaline Oil Corp. trades at C$63.00, about 9% below its 52-week high of C$68.97 and 10% above the low of C$57.52 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$29.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tourmaline Oil Corp.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tourmaline Oil Corp. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price C$63.00, calculated fair value C$29.47 (−53%), Quality Score 43/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOU calculated?
We run Tourmaline Oil Corp. through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$29.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Tourmaline Oil Corp. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was C$63.00. Our model-based fair value is C$29.47, about 53% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tourmaline Oil Corp. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$37.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. A fairly wide model range (C$16.42 to C$37.62) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU) come from?
Earnings per share at Tourmaline Oil Corp. grew +8.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.0 %, EBIT margin −3.8 %, tax rate +1.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tourmaline Oil Corp.
How large is the market capitalisation of Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU)?
The market capitalisation of Tourmaline Oil Corp. is C$24.6B (≈ $17.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tourmaline Oil Corp. is 5.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU)?
Earnings per share at Tourmaline Oil Corp. are C$0.9300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 67.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU)?
The dividend yield of Tourmaline Oil Corp. is 5.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU)?
The net margin of Tourmaline Oil Corp. is 7.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tourmaline Oil Corp. is 2.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tourmaline Oil Corp. is 13.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU)?
The operating margin of Tourmaline Oil Corp. is 19.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU)?
Revenue at Tourmaline Oil Corp. is growing +14.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU)?
Earnings per share at Tourmaline Oil Corp. are growing −65.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tourmaline Oil Corp. (TOU) carry?
The net debt of Tourmaline Oil Corp. is C$1.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 5, 2026