Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. PLN 12.69, price PLN 8.98, upside +41.3%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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TAURON Polska Energia S.A., through its subsidiaries, generates, distributes, and supplies electricity and heat in Poland and the Czech Republic. It operates through Generation, Heat, Renewable Energy Sources, distribution, Supply and Wholesale Trading segments.
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TAURON Polska Energia S.A., through its subsidiaries, generates, distributes, and supplies electricity and heat in Poland and the Czech Republic. It operates through Generation, Heat, Renewable Energy Sources, distribution, Supply and Wholesale Trading segments. The Generation segment is involved in electricity generation through conventional sources, including co-generation, as well as through biomass burning; generation and supply of heat; and generation equipment's overhaul operations. The Heat segment engages in heat generation from heat and transmission and supplies power plants and heat generation plants. This segment also generates and supplies electricity. The Renewable Energy Sources segment generates electricity from renewable energy sources, such as hydroelectric, wind, and photovoltaic. The Distribution segment provides electricity distribution service using the distribution grids; and technical support services related to electricity metering systems, metering data acquisition, and the real estate administration, as well as for the vehicles. The Supply and Wholesale Trading segment is involved in the electricity and natural gas supply; and offers wholesale trade of electricity, natural gas, and derivative products; trading and management of CO2 emission allowances, and property rights, as well as offers services related to street lighting management and maintenance, smart city and e-mobility products, and energy efficiency. The company was formerly known as Energetyka Poludnie S.A. and changed its name to TAURON Polska Energia S.A. in November 2007. The company was founded in 2006 and is based in Katowice, Poland.
Stock analysis
Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE) currently trades at 8.98 PLN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 12.69 PLN, implying the stock looks roughly 29.2% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 32.14 PLN per share, and 20 of the 25 models we run sit above the 8.98 PLN price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 1.95 PLN, and 5 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 6.62 PLN (bear) to 19.38 PLN (bull), the price of 8.98 PLN sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Utilities sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Tauron Polska Energia S.A. reported revenue of 34.4B PLN in FY2025 versus 25.2B PLN in FY2021, a compound +8.1%/yr. Reported net income was 3.3B PLN in FY2025, compounding +76.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 15.9B PLN (≈ $4.1B) · P/E ratio 5.6 · P/S ratio 0.54 · EPS (TTM) 1.61 PLN · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 9.6% · Return on equity 13.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −40% fair-value upside, at 41%, TPE screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 6.62 PLNFair Value 12.69 PLNBull 19.38 PLN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (1.05 PLN per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.5% a year
Revenue growth 16 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+60.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+57.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.57.9% vs 15.6%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.1% → 15%
2025 sits 193% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Poland: IMF forecast 3.1% a year to 2030, 4.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.7% a year for the price and −2.3% for the forecasts.
Compare Tauron Polska Energia S.A. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Renewable · 204 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score55 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+41.3% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)13.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)8.2% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)13.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.59× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tauron Polska Energia S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TPE
Frequently asked questions
Is Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 12.69 PLN versus a price of 8.98 PLN, about +41% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TPE?
Our model-based fair value for Tauron Polska Energia S.A. is 12.69 PLN (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 8.98 PLN.
What is the quality score of TPE?
Tauron Polska Energia S.A. has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 12.69 PLN (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario 6.62 PLN, optimistic scenario 19.38 PLN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tauron Polska Energia S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 12.69 PLN, about +41% upside versus a price of 8.98 PLN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 6.62 PLN, optimistic scenario 19.38 PLN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE)?
Tauron Polska Energia S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 34.3B PLN (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Tauron Polska Energia S.A. pay a dividend?
Tauron Polska Energia S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.23% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tauron Polska Energia S.A. would have to grow free cash flow by +7.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.0 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TPE use?
Our models discount Tauron Polska Energia S.A. at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.58, country premium for Poland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tauron Polska Energia S.A. that is +7.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tauron Polska Energia S.A. grew +11.0 % a year. The price currently implies +7.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (+7.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.50 %: that much free cash flow Tauron Polska Energia S.A. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tauron Polska Energia S.A. it is 12.69 PLN per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of 8.98 PLN. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tauron Polska Energia S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, TPE trades below its calculated fair value: price 8.98 PLN, fair value 12.69 PLN, a gap of about +41% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TPE?
No. The price is what the market pays today (8.98 PLN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (12.69 PLN). For Tauron Polska Energia S.A. the two are 3.71 PLN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tauron Polska Energia S.A. worth?
The market values Tauron Polska Energia S.A. at about 15.9B PLN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is 8.98 PLN; our models calculate a fair value of 12.69 PLN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TPE?
Our models span a range for Tauron Polska Energia S.A.: cautious scenario 6.62 PLN, base 12.69 PLN, optimistic 19.38 PLN per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price 8.98 PLN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TPE?
Tauron Polska Energia S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.6 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 12.69 PLN is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.6, P/B 0.8, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 4.2.
What is the PEG ratio of TPE?
The PEG ratio of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. is 0.62 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 13.5%, debt of 0.59 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TPE from its 52-week high?
Tauron Polska Energia S.A. trades at 8.98 PLN, about 22% below its 52-week high of 11.52 PLN and 9% above the low of 8.23 PLN (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 12.69 PLN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tauron Polska Energia S.A.?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value China Yangtze Power Co, Ørsted A/S, Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc, Fortum Oyj, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tauron Polska Energia S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price 8.98 PLN, calculated fair value 12.69 PLN (+41%), Quality Score 55/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TPE calculated?
We run Tauron Polska Energia S.A. through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 12.69 PLN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Tauron Polska Energia S.A. currently trades 29 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was 8.98 PLN. Our model-based fair value is 12.69 PLN, about +41% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tauron Polska Energia S.A. right now?
The model range is unusually wide (6.62 PLN to 19.38 PLN). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE) come from?
Earnings per share at Tauron Polska Energia S.A. grew +10.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.3 %, EBIT margin +2.6 %, tax rate −1.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tauron Polska Energia S.A.
How large is the market capitalisation of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE)?
The market capitalisation of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. is 15.9B PLN (≈ $4.1B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. is 0.54 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE)?
Earnings per share at Tauron Polska Energia S.A. are 1.61 PLN (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE)?
The dividend yield of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. is 2.2% (payout 12.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE)?
The net margin of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. is 9.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. is 13.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. is 5.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE)?
The operating margin of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. is 13.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE)?
Revenue at Tauron Polska Energia S.A. is growing +1.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE)?
Earnings per share at Tauron Polska Energia S.A. are growing −37.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tauron Polska Energia S.A. (TPE) carry?
The net debt of Tauron Polska Energia S.A. is 12.6B PLN (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 28, 2026