PTT Exploration & Production PCL (TPED) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of PTT Exploration & Production PCL S$5.35, price S$5.54, upside -3.4%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
40‑month range 3.49 SGD – 6.37 SGD · fair‑value band 4.38 SGD – 8.14 SGD · the 5.54 SGD price screens above the 5.35 SGD fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum in Thailand, rest of Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It operates through Exploration and Production; and Other Businesses and Corporate segments.
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PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of petroleum in Thailand, rest of Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa, and internationally. It operates through Exploration and Production; and Other Businesses and Corporate segments. The company is also involved in the gas pipeline transportation and solar power businesses, as well as renewable energy and related activities. In addition, it provides petroleum-related technology, human resource support, and technology and innovation services. The company was founded in 1985 and is based in Bangkok, Thailand. PTT Exploration and Production Public Company Limited is a subsidiary of PTT Public Company Limited.
Stock analysis
PTT Exploration & Production PCL (TPED) currently trades at 5.54 SGD, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 5.35 SGD, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.6%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 8.05 SGD per share, and 8 of the 18 models we run sit above the 5.54 SGD price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 3.32 SGD, and 10 of the 18 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 4.38 SGD (bear) to 8.14 SGD (bull), the price of 5.54 SGD sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
PTT Exploration & Production PCL reported revenue of 281B THB in FY2025 versus 331B THB in FY2022, a compound −5.3%/yr. Reported net income was 60.3B THB in FY2025, compounding −5.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 22.0B SGD (≈ $17.2B) · P/E ratio 10.3 · P/S ratio 2.20 · EPS (TTM) 0.5400 SGD · Dividend yield 6.6% · Net margin 21.4% · Return on equity 10.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −3%, TPED screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 4.38 SGDFair Value 5.35 SGDBull 8.14 SGD
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1337 SGD per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.36/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.3%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in THB ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in THB: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+0.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−6.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.6%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.49% → 35%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in THB, Thailand: IMF forecast 1.2% a year to 2030, 1.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.6% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
Compare PTT Exploration & Production PCL with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 284 stocks
Beats the industry median on 13/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+14.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.8% · Above median
Return on assets6.3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)19.4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)32.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth14.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)6.6% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PTT Exploration & Production PCL Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TPED
Frequently asked questions
Is PTT Exploration & Production PCL (TPED) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 5.35 SGD versus a price of 5.54 SGD, about −3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TPED?
Our model-based fair value for PTT Exploration & Production PCL is 5.35 SGD (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 5.54 SGD.
What is the quality score of TPED?
PTT Exploration & Production PCL has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for PTT Exploration & Production PCL (TPED)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 5.35 SGD (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 18 valuation models. Cautious scenario 4.38 SGD, optimistic scenario 8.14 SGD. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the PTT Exploration & Production PCL stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 5.35 SGD, about −3% upside versus a price of 5.54 SGD (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 4.38 SGD, optimistic scenario 8.14 SGD. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does PTT Exploration & Production PCL pay a dividend?
PTT Exploration & Production PCL currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.56% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into PTT Exploration & Production PCL (TPED)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, PTT Exploration & Production PCL would have to grow free cash flow by +7.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew -5.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TPED use?
Our models discount PTT Exploration & Production PCL at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for Singapore. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For PTT Exploration & Production PCL that is +7.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has PTT Exploration & Production PCL (TPED) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at PTT Exploration & Production PCL grew -5.3 % a year. The price currently implies +7.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of PTT Exploration & Production PCL (TPED) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into PTT Exploration & Production PCL (+7.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of PTT Exploration & Production PCL (TPED)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.10 %: that much free cash flow PTT Exploration & Production PCL produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of PTT Exploration & Production PCL (TPED)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For PTT Exploration & Production PCL it is 5.35 SGD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 5.54 SGD. It is the blended result of 18 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is PTT Exploration & Production PCL stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TPED trades above its calculated fair value: price 5.54 SGD, fair value 5.35 SGD, a gap of about −3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TPED?
No. The price is what the market pays today (5.54 SGD); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (5.35 SGD). For PTT Exploration & Production PCL the two are 0.1900 SGD per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is PTT Exploration & Production PCL worth?
The market values PTT Exploration & Production PCL at about 22.0B SGD (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 5.54 SGD; our models calculate a fair value of 5.35 SGD per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TPED?
Our models span a range for PTT Exploration & Production PCL: cautious scenario 4.38 SGD, base 5.35 SGD, optimistic 8.14 SGD per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 5.54 SGD). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TPED?
PTT Exploration & Production PCL trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 5.35 SGD is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 25.4, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 5.0.
What is the PEG ratio of TPED?
The PEG ratio of PTT Exploration & Production PCL is 25.41 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of PTT Exploration & Production PCL (TPED)?
Balance-sheet figures for PTT Exploration & Production PCL (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 10.8%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TPED from its 52-week high?
PTT Exploration & Production PCL trades at 5.54 SGD, about 13% below its 52-week high of 6.37 SGD and 37% above the low of 4.05 SGD (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 5.35 SGD is for.
Which stocks are comparable to PTT Exploration & Production PCL?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is PTT Exploration & Production PCL stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 5.54 SGD, calculated fair value 5.35 SGD (−3%), Quality Score 57/100, from 18 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TPED calculated?
We run PTT Exploration & Production PCL through 18 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 5.35 SGD, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. PTT Exploration & Production PCL itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of PTT Exploration & Production PCL (TPED)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was 5.54 SGD. Our model-based fair value is 5.35 SGD, about −3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with PTT Exploration & Production PCL right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (4.38 SGD to 8.14 SGD) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of PTT Exploration & Production PCL
How large is the market capitalisation of PTT Exploration & Production PCL (TPED)?
The market capitalisation of PTT Exploration & Production PCL is 22.0B SGD (≈ $17.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of PTT Exploration & Production PCL (TPED)?
The price-to-sales ratio of PTT Exploration & Production PCL is 2.20 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of PTT Exploration & Production PCL (TPED)?
Earnings per share at PTT Exploration & Production PCL are 0.5400 SGD (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of PTT Exploration & Production PCL (TPED)?
The dividend yield of PTT Exploration & Production PCL is 6.6% (payout 67.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of PTT Exploration & Production PCL (TPED)?
The net margin of PTT Exploration & Production PCL is 21.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of PTT Exploration & Production PCL (TPED)?
The return on equity (ROE) of PTT Exploration & Production PCL is 10.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of PTT Exploration & Production PCL (TPED)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of PTT Exploration & Production PCL is 14.6% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of PTT Exploration & Production PCL (TPED)?
The operating margin of PTT Exploration & Production PCL is 32.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at PTT Exploration & Production PCL (TPED)?
Revenue at PTT Exploration & Production PCL is growing +14.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −5.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at PTT Exploration & Production PCL (TPED)?
Earnings per share at PTT Exploration & Production PCL are growing −22.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does PTT Exploration & Production PCL (TPED) carry?
The net debt of PTT Exploration & Production PCL is 17.5B THB (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026