Top Gum Industries Ltd (TPGM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 29, 2026: fair value of Top Gum Industries Ltd ILS 1.30, price ILS 9.35, upside -86.1%, quality 20 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value 1.30 ILA · Strongly overvalued (−86.1%)
!Quality 20/100
!Expensive Growth(revenue 5y +31.6 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -11.9% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers(1/11)
!Narrow moat23/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 4.86 ILA – 19.74 ILA · fair‑value band 1.19 ILA – 1.39 ILA · the 9.35 ILA price screens above the 1.30 ILA fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 27, 2026.
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TopGum Industries Ltd. develops, manufactures, imports, sells, and markets dietary and nutritional supplement gummies. The company offers women's health, beauty from within, active lifestyle, gut health, and immune support gummies. It also imports and markets other sweets, including chocolate, marshmallows, crackers, chewing gum, and candies products.
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TopGum Industries Ltd. develops, manufactures, imports, sells, and markets dietary and nutritional supplement gummies. The company offers women's health, beauty from within, active lifestyle, gut health, and immune support gummies. It also imports and markets other sweets, including chocolate, marshmallows, crackers, chewing gum, and candies products. TopGum Industries Ltd. was incorporated in 2004 and is based in Sderot, Israel.
Stock analysis
Top Gum Industries Ltd (TPGM) currently trades at 9.35 ILA, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 1.30 ILA, 86.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 3.57 ILA per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the 9.35 ILA price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 1.42 ILA, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 1.19 ILA (bear) to 1.39 ILA (bull), the price of 9.35 ILA sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 20/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Top Gum Industries Ltd reported revenue of $101M in FY2025 versus $33.1M in FY2021, a compound +32.2%/yr. Reported net income was −$15.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 1.7B ILA · P/S ratio 14.6 · EPS (TTM) −0.4500 ILA · Net margin −15.8% · Return on equity −15.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.5% · Operating margin 4.0% · Revenue (TTM) $116M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −41% fair-value upside, at −86%, TPGM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 1.19 ILAFair Value 1.30 ILABull 1.39 ILA
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.38/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+70.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
3.6% (2019) → −9.8% (2024)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Confectioners · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score20 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−86.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1.6% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−11.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)4.0% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth84.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.24× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Confectioners median · lower = cheaper
P/B6.05× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)4.76× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA50.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)88· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 55
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
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Is Top Gum Industries Ltd (TPGM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 1.30 ILA versus a price of 9.35 ILA, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TPGM?
Our model-based fair value for Top Gum Industries Ltd is 1.30 ILA (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 9.35 ILA.
What is the quality score of TPGM?
Top Gum Industries Ltd has a Quality Score of 20/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Top Gum Industries Ltd (TPGM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 1.30 ILA (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario 1.19 ILA, optimistic scenario 1.39 ILA. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Top Gum Industries Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 1.30 ILA, about −86% upside versus a price of 9.35 ILA (overvalued). Cautious scenario 1.19 ILA, optimistic scenario 1.39 ILA. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Top Gum Industries Ltd (TPGM)?
Top Gum Industries Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $116M (latest available figure, as of Sep 27, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Top Gum Industries Ltd (TPGM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Top Gum Industries Ltd it is 1.30 ILA per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of 9.35 ILA. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Top Gum Industries Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, TPGM trades above its calculated fair value: price 9.35 ILA, fair value 1.30 ILA, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TPGM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (9.35 ILA); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (1.30 ILA). For Top Gum Industries Ltd the two are 8.05 ILA per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Top Gum Industries Ltd worth?
The market values Top Gum Industries Ltd at about 1.7B ILA (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is 9.35 ILA; our models calculate a fair value of 1.30 ILA per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TPGM?
Our models span a range for Top Gum Industries Ltd: cautious scenario 1.19 ILA, base 1.30 ILA, optimistic 1.39 ILA per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price 9.35 ILA). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Top Gum Industries Ltd (TPGM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Top Gum Industries Ltd (as of Sep 27, 2026): return on equity −15.5%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 20/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TPGM from its 52-week high?
Top Gum Industries Ltd trades at 9.35 ILA, about 53% below its 52-week high of 19.74 ILA and 6% above the low of 8.81 ILA (as of Sep 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 1.30 ILA is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Top Gum Industries Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Mondelez International, Inc, The Hershey Company, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, Barry Callebaut AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Top Gum Industries Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price 9.35 ILA, calculated fair value 1.30 ILA (−86%), Quality Score 20/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TPGM calculated?
We run Top Gum Industries Ltd through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 1.30 ILA, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Top Gum Industries Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Top Gum Industries Ltd (TPGM)?
The closing price on Sep 29, 2026 was 9.35 ILA. Our model-based fair value is 1.30 ILA, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Top Gum Industries Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (1.39 ILA). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (20/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Top Gum Industries Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Top Gum Industries Ltd (TPGM)?
The market capitalisation of Top Gum Industries Ltd is 1.7B ILA. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Top Gum Industries Ltd (TPGM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Top Gum Industries Ltd is 14.6 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Top Gum Industries Ltd (TPGM)?
Earnings per share at Top Gum Industries Ltd are −0.4500 ILA. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Top Gum Industries Ltd (TPGM)?
The net margin of Top Gum Industries Ltd is −15.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Top Gum Industries Ltd (TPGM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Top Gum Industries Ltd is −15.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Top Gum Industries Ltd (TPGM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Top Gum Industries Ltd is 2.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Top Gum Industries Ltd (TPGM)?
The operating margin of Top Gum Industries Ltd is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Top Gum Industries Ltd (TPGM)?
Revenue at Top Gum Industries Ltd is growing +84.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +32.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Top Gum Industries Ltd (TPGM)?
Earnings per share at Top Gum Industries Ltd are growing −50.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Top Gum Industries Ltd (TPGM) generate?
The free cash flow of Top Gum Industries Ltd is −$9.4M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Top Gum Industries Ltd (TPGM) carry?
The net debt of Top Gum Industries Ltd is $19.8M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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