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Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc $22.28, price $37.99, upside -41.4%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Consumer Defensive · US · ISIN US8905161076

TR Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc logo Broad data Oct 2, 2026

Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc

TR · US

Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.

!Fair value $22.28 · Strongly overvalued (−41.4%)
✓Quality 67/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +9.2 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 13.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓0.9% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 54/100

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$44.70 $24.70 Fair Value $22.28 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $24.70 – $44.70 · fair‑value band $15.60 – $29.13 · the $37.99 price screens above the $22.28 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

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Company profile

Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells confectionery products in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally.

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Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells confectionery products in the United States, Canada, Mexico, and internationally. The company sells its products under the Tootsie Roll, Tootsie Fruit Roll, Tootsie Pops, Tootsie Mini Pops, Child's Play, Caramel Apple Pops, Charms, Blow-Pop, Charms Mini Pops, Cella's, Dots, Junior Mints, Charleston Chew, Sugar Daddy, Sugar Babies, Andes, Fluffy Stuff, Dubble Bubble, Razzles, Cry Baby, Nik-L-Nip, And Tutsi Pop trademarks. It sells its products directly to wholesale distributors of candy, food and groceries, supermarkets, variety stores, dollar stores, chain grocers, drug chains, discount chains, cooperative grocery associations, mass merchandisers, warehouse and membership club stores, vending machine operators, e-commerce merchants, on-line marketplaces, the U.S. military and fund-raising charitable organizations, as well as through food and grocery brokers. Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc. was founded in 1896 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.

Stock analysis

Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR) currently trades at $37.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.28, 41.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $22.41 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $37.99 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.65, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $15.60 (bear) to $29.13 (bull), the price of $37.99 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc reported revenue of $733M in FY2025 versus $571M in FY2021, a compound +6.4%/yr. Reported net income was $100M in FY2025, compounding +11.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $2.8B · P/E ratio 27.9 · P/S ratio 3.81 · EPS (TTM) $1.33 · Dividend yield 0.9% · Net margin 13.7% · Return on equity 10.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −41%, TR screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $15.60 Fair Value $22.28 Bull $29.13
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7418 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $14.73 $19.57 $26.47 80
Growth DCF $15.13 $19.70 $25.93 78
Owner Earnings $12.44 $16.44 $22.13 77
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $14.73 $19.57 $26.47 80
Owner Earnings $12.44 $16.44 $22.13 77
5Y Revenue Exit $12.72 $17.55 $23.60 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $15.00 $21.52 $28.94 75
5Y P/E Exit $18.24 $27.15 $36.22 70
10Y Revenue Exit $13.11 $17.44 $22.52 67
10Y EBITDA Exit $14.78 $20.04 $26.20 68
10Y P/E Exit $16.74 $23.71 $31.21 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $9.33 $18.76 $23.59 63
EPV $9.82 $11.11 $12.22 72
Multiples
P/E Multiple $21.61 $28.82 $36.02 61
P/S Multiple $12.06 $16.08 $20.10 56
P/B Multiple $17.50 $23.33 $29.16 53
EV/EBIT $19.62 $25.61 $31.60 65
EV/EBITDA $17.22 $22.41 $27.60 66
EV/Revenue $12.20 $16.72 $21.24 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $6.45 $8.65 $12.91 52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $15.13 $19.70 $25.93 78
Rev-Margin DCF $12.72 $17.76 $23.26 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income $11.47 $12.72 $15.53 75
ROIC Compounder $9.82 $11.11 $12.22 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $15.69 $22.41 $29.13 66

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 67/100

Of which business quality 66 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 47
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 44
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 87
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 73
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 34
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 33
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 86
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 84/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.1% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.9%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.9% vs 4.9%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.12% → 14%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +9.1% a year for the price.

TR screens overvalued: fair value 41% below the price. Compare with Mondelez International, Inc →

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Confectioners stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Mondelez International, Inc MDLZ $57.82 $29.03 −50%
The Hershey Company HSY $161.41 $90.80 −44%
Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG LISP CHF 7,540 CHF 11,708 +55%
Barry Callebaut AG BARN CHF 1,062 CHF 654.80 −38%
Cofco Sugar Holding 600737 ¥14.75 ¥10.01 −32%
ORION Corp 271560 106,900 KRW 203,315 KRW +90%
Guangxi Yuegui Guangye Holdings 000833 ¥18.76 ¥8.53 −55%
Balrampur Chini Mills Limited BALRAMCHIN ₹649.05 ₹160.97 −75%
ORION Holdings 001800 23,000 KRW 51,062 KRW +122%
Guan Chong Berhad, 5102 1.29 MYR 2.54 MYR +97%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TR

Frequently asked questions

Is Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.28 versus a price of $37.99, about −41% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TR?
Our model-based fair value for Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc is $22.28 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $37.99.
What is the quality score of TR?
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $22.28 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $15.60, optimistic scenario $29.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $22.28, about −41% upside versus a price of $37.99 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $15.60, optimistic scenario $29.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR)?
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $736M (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
Does Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc pay a dividend?
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.92% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +11.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.2 % per year. As of Oct 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TR use?
Our models discount Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.40, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc that is +11.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc grew +9.2 % a year. The price currently implies +11.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (+11.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.48 %: that much free cash flow Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc it is $22.28 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $37.99. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, TR trades above its calculated fair value: price $37.99, fair value $22.28, a gap of about −41% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($37.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($22.28). For Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc the two are $15.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc worth?
The market values Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc at about $2.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $37.99; our models calculate a fair value of $22.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TR?
Our models span a range for Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc: cautious scenario $15.60, base $22.28, optimistic $29.13 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $37.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is TR from its 52-week high?
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc trades at $37.99, about 15% below its 52-week high of $44.70 and 13% above the low of $33.68 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $22.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Mondelez International, Inc, The Hershey Company, Chocoladefabriken Lindt & Sprüngli AG, Barry Callebaut AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $37.99, calculated fair value $22.28 (−41%), Quality Score 67/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TR calculated?
We run Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $22.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $37.99. Our model-based fair value is $22.28, about −41% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($29.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($15.60 to $29.13) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR) come from?
Earnings per share at Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc grew +4.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.5 %, EBIT margin −2.1 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR)?
The market capitalisation of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc is $2.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc is 27.9 (as of Jun 25, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc is 3.81 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR)?
Earnings per share at Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc are $1.33 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR)?
The dividend yield of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc is 0.9% (payout 26.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR)?
The net margin of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc is 13.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc is 10.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc is 8.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR)?
The operating margin of Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc is 12.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR)?
Revenue at Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc is growing +2.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR)?
Earnings per share at Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc are growing −2.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc (TR) hold?
Tootsie Roll Industries, Inc holds more cash than debt, $114M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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