Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Topaz Energy Corp C$27.16, price C$28.87, upside -5.9%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Watch Topaz Energy Corp for free, get notified when fair value or trend changes. Plus fair value for all 35,000+ stocks, 14 days of Pro free, no card.Watch for freePro now: $1 first month
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$11.39 – C$32.80 · fair‑value band C$19.02 – C$35.30 · the C$28.87 price screens above the C$27.16 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Follow Topaz Energy in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether Topaz Energy is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
Topaz Energy Corp. operates as a royalty and infrastructure energy company in Canada. It operates through Royalty Production and Infrastructure segments. The company holds royalty interests on approximately 9 million gross acres of developed and undeveloped lands.
Show more
Topaz Energy Corp. operates as a royalty and infrastructure energy company in Canada. It operates through Royalty Production and Infrastructure segments. The company holds royalty interests on approximately 9 million gross acres of developed and undeveloped lands. It is also involved in operating natural gas processing facilities; and associated crude oil and condensate handling facilities, as well as water management infrastructure. The company was formerly known as Exshaw Oil Corp. and changed its name to Topaz Energy Corp. in November 2019. Topaz Energy Corp. was incorporated in 2006 and is based in Calgary, Canada.
Stock analysis
Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ) currently trades at C$28.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$27.16, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.3%).
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of C$41.19 per share, and 3 of the 22 models we run sit above the C$28.87 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at C$4.64, and 19 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: C$19.02 (bear) to C$35.30 (bull), the price of C$28.87 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Topaz Energy Corp reported revenue of C$325M in FY2025 versus C$212M in FY2021, a compound +11.3%/yr. Reported net income was C$129M in FY2025, compounding +47.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap C$4.5B (≈ $3.2B) · P/E ratio 31.0 · P/S ratio 12.3 · EPS (TTM) C$0.9300 · Dividend yield 4.7% · Net margin 39.6% · Return on equity 10.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −6%, TPZ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$19.02Fair Value C$27.16Bull C$35.30
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+25.0%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+64.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+59.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.90% → 51%
2025 sits 154% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+2.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Canada: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +0.5% a year for the price and +7.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (89 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas Midstream · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−5.9% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)10.5% · Below median
Return on assets6.7% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)39.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)68.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth37.0% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.38× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas Midstream median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Topaz Energy Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TPZ
Frequently asked questions
Is Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$27.16 versus a price of C$28.87, about −6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TPZ?
Our model-based fair value for Topaz Energy Corp is C$27.16 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$28.87.
What is the quality score of TPZ?
Topaz Energy Corp has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$27.16 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$19.02, optimistic scenario C$35.30. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Topaz Energy Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$27.16, about −6% upside versus a price of C$28.87 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario C$19.02, optimistic scenario C$35.30. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ)?
Topaz Energy Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$369M (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Topaz Energy Corp pay a dividend?
Topaz Energy Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.68% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Topaz Energy Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +2.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +26.6 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TPZ use?
Our models discount Topaz Energy Corp at 8.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for Canada. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Topaz Energy Corp that is +2.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Topaz Energy Corp grew +26.6 % a year. The price currently implies +2.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Topaz Energy Corp (+2.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.76 %: that much free cash flow Topaz Energy Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Topaz Energy Corp it is C$27.16 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of C$28.87. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Topaz Energy Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, TPZ trades above its calculated fair value: price C$28.87, fair value C$27.16, a gap of about −6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TPZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$28.87); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$27.16). For Topaz Energy Corp the two are C$1.71 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Topaz Energy Corp worth?
The market values Topaz Energy Corp at about C$4.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is C$28.87; our models calculate a fair value of C$27.16 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TPZ?
Our models span a range for Topaz Energy Corp: cautious scenario C$19.02, base C$27.16, optimistic C$35.30 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price C$28.87). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TPZ?
Topaz Energy Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.0 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of C$27.16 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.0, P/S 12.2, EV/EBITDA 14.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Topaz Energy Corp (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 10.5%, debt of 0.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TPZ from its 52-week high?
Topaz Energy Corp trades at C$28.87, about 12% below its 52-week high of C$32.80 and 23% above the low of C$23.40 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$27.16 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Topaz Energy Corp?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Enbridge Inc, The Williams Companies, Inc, Enterprise Products Partners L.P., Energy Transfer LP,, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Topaz Energy Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price C$28.87, calculated fair value C$27.16 (−6%), Quality Score 67/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TPZ calculated?
We run Topaz Energy Corp through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$27.16, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Topaz Energy Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was C$28.87. Our model-based fair value is C$27.16, about −6% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Topaz Energy Corp right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (C$19.02 to C$35.30) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Topaz Energy Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ)?
The market capitalisation of Topaz Energy Corp is C$4.5B (≈ $3.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Topaz Energy Corp is 12.3 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ)?
Earnings per share at Topaz Energy Corp are C$0.9300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ)?
The dividend yield of Topaz Energy Corp is 4.7% (payout 145%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ)?
The net margin of Topaz Energy Corp is 39.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Topaz Energy Corp is 10.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Topaz Energy Corp is 14.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ)?
The operating margin of Topaz Energy Corp is 68.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ)?
Revenue at Topaz Energy Corp is growing +37.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ)?
Earnings per share at Topaz Energy Corp are growing +22.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Topaz Energy Corp (TPZ) carry?
The net debt of Topaz Energy Corp is C$570M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
Free · no account needed
Watch Topaz Energy Corp in the live analysis
One click puts Topaz Energy Corp on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
