Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. stock €17.31, price €12.38, upside +39.7%, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?Yes
Good quality?No
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €6.62 – €16.75 · fair‑value band €12.87 – €21.63 · the €12.38 price screens below the €17.31 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 27, 2026.
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Toyo Kanetsu K.K. engages in plant and machinery, logistics systems, and other businesses in Japan, Southeast Asia, and internationally. The company operates through Logistics Solutions Business, Plant Business, and Business Innovation and Incubation segments.
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The Logistics Solutions segment develops, designs, and manufactures logistics systems centered on sorting, picking, and transportation systems that integrate IT, and performs maintenance systems.
The Plant segment is engaged in the maintenance of storage tanks for LNG, LPG, crude oil, and other gases and liquids. Business Innovation and Incubation segment develops and proposes solutions to promote safety and reduce labor in many industries and fields.
It is also involved in the building construction business; manufacture and sale of industrial facilities and equipment; real estate rental; leasing operations; and inspection, measurement, analysis of asbestos, etc.
The company was formerly known as Toyo Kanetsu Kogyo K.K. and changed its name to Toyo Kanetsu K.K. in 1969. The company was incorporated in 1941 and is headquartered in Koto, Japan.
Stock analysis
Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2) currently trades at €12.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €17.31, implying the stock looks roughly 28.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €23.80 per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the €12.38 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €3.57, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €12.87 (bear) to €21.63 (bull), the price of €12.38 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Toyo Kanetsu K.K. reported revenue of ¥59.6B in FY2026 versus ¥59.2B in FY2022, a compound +0.2%/yr. Reported net income was ¥2.6B in FY2026, compounding +2.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €193M Micro · P/E ratio 13.5 · P/S ratio 0.58 · EPS (TTM) €0.9200 · Dividend yield 4.7% · Net margin 4.3% · Return on equity 4.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at 40%, TQ2 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€12.87Fair Value €17.31Bull€21.63
Price €12.38 · Upside +39.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.1929 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
FCF DCF€21.06€27.30€34.5882
Growth DCF€21.37€27.06€33.4480
5Y EBITDA Exit€17.97€25.12€32.8976
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF€21.06€27.30€34.5882
5Y Revenue Exit€15.95€21.56€28.2374
5Y EBITDA Exit€17.97€25.12€32.8976
5Y P/E Exit€16.94€23.29€29.4672
10Y Revenue Exit€17.80€22.78€28.5568
10Y EBITDA Exit€19.17€24.88€31.5070
10Y P/E Exit€18.61€23.80€29.3365
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd€6.59€14.62€18.6666
PEG = 1.0€2.35€3.35€4.3657
EPV€7.63€8.54€9.2974
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM€6.15€8.80€11.1869
DDM Multi-Stage€6.15€8.27€10.2567
Multiples
P/E Multiple€15.27€20.36€25.4563
P/S Multiple€12.36€16.48€20.6058
P/B Multiple€51.08€68.11€85.1455
EV/EBIT€15.07€20.84€26.6166
EV/EBITDA€15.14€20.94€26.7467
EV/Revenue€10.11€15.41€20.7053
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)€2.36€3.57€4.4754
Growth DCF
Growth DCF€21.37€27.06€33.4480
Rev-Margin DCF€15.95€21.97€28.4774
Economic Profit
Residual Income€11.30€11.55€12.2276
ROIC Compounder€7.63€8.54€9.2972
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E€11.37€16.24€21.1267
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.66/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.5% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−0.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−5.5% vs −8.3%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.6% → 6%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.6%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.5% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 810 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score49 · Below median
Fair Value upside+39.7% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)4.2% · Below median
Return on assets3.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)2.7% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)−2.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
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Is Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €17.31 versus a price of €12.38, about +40% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TQ2?
Our model-based fair value for Toyo Kanetsu K.K. is €17.31 (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €12.38.
What is the quality score of TQ2?
Toyo Kanetsu K.K. has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €17.31 (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €12.87, optimistic scenario €21.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Toyo Kanetsu K.K. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €17.31, about +40% upside versus a price of €12.38 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €12.87, optimistic scenario €21.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2)?
Toyo Kanetsu K.K. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥60.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does Toyo Kanetsu K.K. pay a dividend?
Toyo Kanetsu K.K. currently shows a dividend yield of 4.72% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Toyo Kanetsu K.K. would have to grow free cash flow by -9.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.5 % per year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TQ2 use?
Our models discount Toyo Kanetsu K.K. at 11.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.28, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Toyo Kanetsu K.K. that is -9.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Toyo Kanetsu K.K. grew +6.5 % a year. The price currently implies -9.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (-9.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 19.32 %: that much free cash flow Toyo Kanetsu K.K. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Toyo Kanetsu K.K. it is €17.31 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of €12.38. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Toyo Kanetsu K.K. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, TQ2 trades below its calculated fair value: price €12.38, fair value €17.31, a gap of about +40% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TQ2?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€12.38); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€17.31). For Toyo Kanetsu K.K. the two are €4.92 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Toyo Kanetsu K.K. worth?
The market values Toyo Kanetsu K.K. at about €193M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is €12.38; our models calculate a fair value of €17.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TQ2?
Our models span a range for Toyo Kanetsu K.K.: cautious scenario €12.87, base €17.31, optimistic €21.63 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price €12.38). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TQ2?
Toyo Kanetsu K.K. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.5 (as of Oct 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €17.31 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 9.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2)?
Balance-sheet figures for Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity 4.2%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TQ2 from its 52-week high?
Toyo Kanetsu K.K. trades at €12.38, about 25% below its 52-week high of €16.50 and 12% above the low of €11.06 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €17.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Toyo Kanetsu K.K.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Toyo Kanetsu K.K. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price €12.38, calculated fair value €17.31 (+40%), Quality Score 49/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TQ2 calculated?
We run Toyo Kanetsu K.K. through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €17.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Toyo Kanetsu K.K. currently trades 28 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was €12.38. Our model-based fair value is €17.31, about +40% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Toyo Kanetsu K.K. right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (€12.87). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (49/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of Toyo Kanetsu K.K.
How large is the market capitalisation of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2)?
The market capitalisation of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. is €193M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. is 0.58 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2)?
Earnings per share at Toyo Kanetsu K.K. are €0.9200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2)?
The dividend yield of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. is 4.7% (payout 63.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2)?
The net margin of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. is 4.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2)?
The operating margin of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. is −2.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2)?
Revenue at Toyo Kanetsu K.K. is growing +10.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2)?
Earnings per share at Toyo Kanetsu K.K. are growing −73.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Toyo Kanetsu K.K. (TQ2) carry?
The net debt of Toyo Kanetsu K.K. is ¥6.0B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 0.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 27, 2026