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Toyo Seikan Group (TQN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 1, 2026: fair value of Toyo Seikan Group €23.17, price €24.60, upside -5.8%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · DE · Home Japan · ISIN JP3613400005

In Frankfurt, only 0 of the last 21 trading days (30 days) had any turnover. On the other days the price is an indicative quote without trading, so we do not list this stock in the radar. It stays reachable through search.

TS Broad data Sep 30, 2026

Toyo Seikan Group

TQN · F

NeutralThe stock looks roughly fairly valued with average quality.

·Fair value €23.17 · Fairly valued (−5.8%)
✓Quality 60/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +5.2 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 5.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓4.0% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Ranks above peers (11/14)
!Narrow moat 40/100
!Weak on valuation: 26 out of 100

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€25.26 €7.87 Fair Value €23.17 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €7.87 – €25.26 · fair‑value band €15.75 – €31.77 · the €24.60 price screens above the €23.17 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 30, 2026.

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Company profile

Toyo Seikan Group Holdings, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells packaging containers in Japan, Asia, and internationally. It operates through Packaging; Engineering, Filling and Logistics; Steel Plate Related; Functional Materials Related; Real Estate Related; and Other Businesses segments.

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Toyo Seikan Group Holdings, Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells packaging containers in Japan, Asia, and internationally. It operates through Packaging; Engineering, Filling and Logistics; Steel Plate Related; Functional Materials Related; Real Estate Related; and Other Businesses segments. The company offers various packaging containers, including metal cans and caps; PET and plastic bottles, plastic films and pouches, and plastic trays and caps; paper cups and corrugated cardboard products; and glass bottles and paper and resin tableware. It also provides steel plate related products, such as materials for metal cans, electrical and electronic components, automotive and industrial machinery parts, construction materials, and consumer electronics; and functional materials comprising magnetic disk aluminum substrates, optical functional films, pigments, enamelware glazes, gel coats, and micro-element fertilizers, as well as tin and thin plates, surface-treated steel sheets, steel bands, automatic binders, synthetic resins, and frit products. In addition, the company offers can and can end making machinery and beverage filling equipment; contract filling and sale of beverages, aerosol, and general liquid-filled products; trucking, warehousing, real estate rental management, and tourism services; and office buildings and commercial properties leasing services. Further, it is involved in the manufacturing and sale of automotive press dies, machinery and appliances, hard alloys, and agricultural-use materials; sale of petroleum products; and non-life insurance agency business. The company was formerly known as Toyo Seikan Kaisha, Ltd. and changed its name to Toyo Seikan Group Holdings, Ltd. in March 2013. Toyo Seikan Group Holdings, Ltd. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Shinagawa, Japan.

Stock analysis

Toyo Seikan Group (TQN) currently trades at €24.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €23.17, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 6.2%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €34.94 per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the €24.60 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €7.15, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: €15.75 (bear) to €31.77 (bull), the price of €24.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Toyo Seikan Group reported revenue of ¥963B in FY2026 versus ¥822B in FY2022, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥55.0B in FY2026, compounding +5.5%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap €3.7B · P/E ratio 12.3 · P/S ratio 0.70 · EPS (TTM) €2.00 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 7.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −16% fair-value upside, at −6%, TQN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €15.75 Fair Value €23.17 Bull €31.77
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €13.41 €18.16 €25.44 81
Growth DCF €13.83 €18.35 €24.89 79
Owner Earnings €20.84 €28.27 €39.64 77
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €13.41 €18.16 €25.44 81
Owner Earnings €20.84 €28.27 €39.64 77
5Y Revenue Exit €15.39 €23.11 €33.25 72
5Y EBITDA Exit €21.18 €33.12 €47.34 75
5Y P/E Exit €19.26 €29.79 €40.99 71
10Y Revenue Exit €14.02 €20.58 €28.36 67
10Y EBITDA Exit €17.99 €27.10 €37.89 68
10Y P/E Exit €16.83 €24.94 €33.59 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €13.97 €26.97 €33.67 66
EPV €16.09 €18.60 €20.77 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €5.23 €7.15 €9.04 69
DDM Multi-Stage €5.23 €7.17 €9.36 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple €26.20 €34.94 €43.67 63
P/S Multiple €26.20 €34.94 €43.67 58
P/B Multiple €26.20 €34.94 €43.67 55
EV/EBIT €20.60 €27.40 €34.21 66
EV/EBITDA €30.00 €39.94 €49.87 67
EV/Revenue €17.88 €25.46 €33.04 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €13.04 €17.47 €26.08 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €13.83 €18.35 €24.89 79
Rev-Margin DCF €15.39 €23.29 €32.14 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income €21.57 €22.98 €25.40 76
ROIC Compounder €16.09 €18.60 €20.77 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €19.02 €27.17 €35.33 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 60/100

Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78

Profitability 37
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 45
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 37
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 80
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 73
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 84
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 64/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.8% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+20.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+16.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17.3% vs 19.8%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 5%
2026 sits 175% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2021 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+11.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.9% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaging & Containers · 259 stocks

Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 60 · Above median
Fair Value upside −5.8% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 7.8% · Above median
Return on assets 2.9% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 5.4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 7.6% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 11.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.17× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Packaging & Containers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 12.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B 0.94× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.66× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 20.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 5.9× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)26 · sector 23
FUTURE (revenue growth)57 · sector 37
PAST (return on equity)31 · sector 24
HEALTH (low debt)92 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)80 · sector 47

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Packaging & Containers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Smurfit Westrock Plc, SW $46.41 $29.85 −36%
Packaging Corporation PKG $234.52 $130.10 −45%
International Paper Company IP $32.52 $21.53 −34%
Ball Corporation BALL $56.83 $47.81 −16%
Avery Dennison Corporation AVY $170.78 $125.35 −27%
Crown Holdings CCK $108.06 $121.85 +13%
Stora Enso Oyj STEAV €10.45 €9.66 −8%
SIG Group SIGN CHF 13.37 CHF 9.59 −28%
ShenZhen YUTO Packaging Technology Co 002831 ¥29.00 ¥31.90 +10%
Sonoco Products Company SON $50.06 $61.98 +24%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Toyo Seikan Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TQN

Frequently asked questions

Is Toyo Seikan Group (TQN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €23.17 versus a price of €24.60, about −6% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TQN?
Our model-based fair value for Toyo Seikan Group is €23.17 (as of Sep 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €24.60.
What is the quality score of TQN?
Toyo Seikan Group has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Toyo Seikan Group (TQN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €23.17 (as of Sep 30, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €15.75, optimistic scenario €31.77. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Toyo Seikan Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €23.17, about −6% upside versus a price of €24.60 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario €15.75, optimistic scenario €31.77. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Toyo Seikan Group (TQN)?
Toyo Seikan Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥991B (latest available figure, as of Sep 30, 2026).
Does Toyo Seikan Group pay a dividend?
Toyo Seikan Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.02% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Toyo Seikan Group (TQN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Toyo Seikan Group would have to grow free cash flow by +11.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.2 % per year. As of Sep 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TQN use?
Our models discount Toyo Seikan Group at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Toyo Seikan Group that is +11.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Toyo Seikan Group (TQN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Toyo Seikan Group grew +5.2 % a year. The price currently implies +11.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Toyo Seikan Group (TQN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Toyo Seikan Group (+11.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Toyo Seikan Group (TQN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.97 %: that much free cash flow Toyo Seikan Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Toyo Seikan Group (TQN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Toyo Seikan Group it is €23.17 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026), against a price of €24.60. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Toyo Seikan Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 30, 2026, TQN trades above its calculated fair value: price €24.60, fair value €23.17, a gap of about −6% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TQN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€24.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€23.17). For Toyo Seikan Group the two are €1.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Toyo Seikan Group worth?
The market values Toyo Seikan Group at about €3.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 30, 2026). Per share that is €24.60; our models calculate a fair value of €23.17 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TQN?
Our models span a range for Toyo Seikan Group: cautious scenario €15.75, base €23.17, optimistic €31.77 per share (as of Sep 30, 2026, price €24.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TQN?
Toyo Seikan Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.3 (as of Sep 30, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €23.17 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.9, P/S 0.7, EV/EBITDA 5.9.
How solid is the balance sheet of Toyo Seikan Group (TQN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Toyo Seikan Group (as of Sep 30, 2026): return on equity 7.8%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TQN from its 52-week high?
Toyo Seikan Group trades at €24.60, about 3% below its 52-week high of €25.26 and 51% above the low of €16.25 (as of Oct 1, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €23.17 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Toyo Seikan Group?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Smurfit Westrock Plc,, Packaging Corporation, International Paper Company, Ball Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Toyo Seikan Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 30, 2026: price €24.60, calculated fair value €23.17 (−6%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TQN calculated?
We run Toyo Seikan Group through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €23.17, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Toyo Seikan Group itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Toyo Seikan Group (TQN)?
The closing price on Oct 1, 2026 was €24.60. Our model-based fair value is €23.17, about −6% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Toyo Seikan Group right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (€15.75 to €31.77) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Toyo Seikan Group

How large is the market capitalisation of Toyo Seikan Group (TQN)?
The market capitalisation of Toyo Seikan Group is €3.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Toyo Seikan Group (TQN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Toyo Seikan Group is 0.70 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Toyo Seikan Group (TQN)?
Earnings per share at Toyo Seikan Group are €2.00 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Toyo Seikan Group (TQN)?
The dividend yield of Toyo Seikan Group is 4.0% (payout 49.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Toyo Seikan Group (TQN)?
The net margin of Toyo Seikan Group is 5.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Toyo Seikan Group (TQN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Toyo Seikan Group is 7.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Toyo Seikan Group (TQN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Toyo Seikan Group is 2.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Toyo Seikan Group (TQN)?
The operating margin of Toyo Seikan Group is 7.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Toyo Seikan Group (TQN)?
Revenue at Toyo Seikan Group is growing +11.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Toyo Seikan Group (TQN)?
Earnings per share at Toyo Seikan Group are growing −3.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Toyo Seikan Group (TQN) carry?
The net debt of Toyo Seikan Group is ¥80.3B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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