Dune Oil Corp (TRLEF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Dune Oil Corp $0.10, price $0.10, upside +1.4%, quality 40 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0550 – $9.85 · fair‑value band $0.0765 – $0.1190 · the $0.1006 price screens below the $0.1020 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Dune Oil Corp., an oil and gas exploration company, focuses on the exploration and development of oil and natural gas in Türkiye. It holds interest in M47 Block that covers an area of 450 square kilometer located in Turkiye. The company was formerly known as Trillion Energy International Inc. and changed its name to Dune Oil Corp. in August 2026.
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Dune Oil Corp., an oil and gas exploration company, focuses on the exploration and development of oil and natural gas in Türkiye. It holds interest in M47 Block that covers an area of 450 square kilometer located in Turkiye. The company was formerly known as Trillion Energy International Inc. and changed its name to Dune Oil Corp. in August 2026. Dune Oil Corp. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
Dune Oil Corp (TRLEF) currently trades at $0.1006, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1020, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 1.4%).
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 7 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: $0.0765 (bear) to $0.1190 (bull), the price of $0.1006 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Dune Oil Corp reported revenue of $2.9M in FY2025 versus $3.7M in FY2021, a compound −6.1%/yr. Reported net income was −$49.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $6.6M · P/S ratio 2.30 · EPS (TTM) $−1.13 · Return on equity −1,765% · Return on assets (EBIT) −37.0% · Operating margin −2,093% · Revenue (TTM) $2.9M · Revenue growth (YoY) −70.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 83% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 1%, TRLEF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.0765Fair Value $0.1020Bull $0.1190
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.33/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−58.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−32.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−5.0%
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−126.3% (2020) → −115.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.7% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 292 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/6 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Below median
Fair Value upside+1.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets−133.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−70.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)2.30× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF5.4× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)35· sector 31
FUTURE (revenue growth)0· sector 43
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 11
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 86
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 70
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
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Is Dune Oil Corp (TRLEF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.1020 versus a price of $0.1006, about +1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TRLEF?
Our model-based fair value for Dune Oil Corp is $0.1020 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.1006.
What is the quality score of TRLEF?
Dune Oil Corp has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Dune Oil Corp (TRLEF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.1020 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 5 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.0765, optimistic scenario $0.1190. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Dune Oil Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.1020, about +1% upside versus a price of $0.1006 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $0.0765, optimistic scenario $0.1190. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Dune Oil Corp (TRLEF)?
Dune Oil Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.9M (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Dune Oil Corp (TRLEF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Dune Oil Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +10.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.2 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TRLEF use?
Our models discount Dune Oil Corp at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Dune Oil Corp that is +10.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Dune Oil Corp (TRLEF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Dune Oil Corp grew +2.2 % a year. The price currently implies +10.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Dune Oil Corp (TRLEF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Dune Oil Corp (+10.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Dune Oil Corp (TRLEF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 29.41 %: that much free cash flow Dune Oil Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Dune Oil Corp (TRLEF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Dune Oil Corp it is $0.1020 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $0.1006. It is the blended result of 5 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Dune Oil Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, TRLEF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.1006, fair value $0.1020, a gap of about +1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TRLEF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.1006); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.1020). For Dune Oil Corp the two are $0.0014 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Dune Oil Corp worth?
The market values Dune Oil Corp at about $6.6M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $0.1006; our models calculate a fair value of $0.1020 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TRLEF?
Our models span a range for Dune Oil Corp: cautious scenario $0.0765, base $0.1020, optimistic $0.1190 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $0.1006). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Dune Oil Corp (TRLEF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Dune Oil Corp (as of Sep 28, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TRLEF from its 52-week high?
Dune Oil Corp trades at $0.1006, about 37% below its 52-week high of $0.1600 and 83% above the low of $0.0550 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.1020 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Dune Oil Corp?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Dune Oil Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $0.1006, calculated fair value $0.1020 (+1%), Quality Score 40/100, from 5 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TRLEF calculated?
We run Dune Oil Corp through 5 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.1020, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Dune Oil Corp currently trades 1 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Dune Oil Corp (TRLEF)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was $0.1006. Our model-based fair value is $0.1020, about +1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Dune Oil Corp right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Key figures of Dune Oil Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Dune Oil Corp (TRLEF)?
The market capitalisation of Dune Oil Corp is $6.6M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Dune Oil Corp (TRLEF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Dune Oil Corp is 2.30 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Dune Oil Corp (TRLEF)?
Earnings per share at Dune Oil Corp are $−1.13. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Dune Oil Corp (TRLEF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Dune Oil Corp is −1,765% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Dune Oil Corp (TRLEF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Dune Oil Corp is −37.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Dune Oil Corp (TRLEF)?
The operating margin of Dune Oil Corp is −2,093% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Dune Oil Corp (TRLEF)?
Revenue at Dune Oil Corp is growing −70.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −32.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Dune Oil Corp (TRLEF)?
Earnings per share at Dune Oil Corp are growing +24.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Dune Oil Corp (TRLEF) carry?
The net debt of Dune Oil Corp is $16.4M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 28, 2026